The Postseason's Finest: Conn Smythe Contenders Unpacked || June Sports Summit #1

Edition #252

The Conn Smythe trophy. The award is given to the most valuable player in the NHL playoffs. We all know about the Oilers and the Panthers' rematch this year. Last year’s winner was Connor McDavid, and it was just the 6th time in history that the award was given to a player on the losing team.

With that, I welcome you to the 1st edition of this quarter’s Sports Summit! It’s that time again, people, and we have another crazy catalog of writers collaborating with me. It’s your support that really keeps this segment going every quarter, so I appreciate each and every one of you opening and engaging with this content.

If you have no idea what the Sports Summit is, it’s basically a recurring segment that I run every quarter with some of my favorite and talented writers out there in the space.

This is actually going to be the premier edition for hockey in the Sports Summit. Today, I’m joined by Vinh Cao, who’s one of the premier and one of my favorite hockey writers. His publication is called Virtual Hockey Scout. Go check him out there!

Vinh! Thanks for coming on!

Vinh:

Thanks for having me, Smayan! Connor McDavid’s ridiculous playoff run (4th-highest point total in postseason history) made last year’s Conn Smythe conversation dead simple. This season, the field is much more balanced, as McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard, Sam Bennett and Brad Marchand are all viable candidates.

With that said—and as boring as this pick is—I’d still have to go with McDavid at the moment. He and Draisaitl are tied for the league lead in points and the German does indeed hold a significant edge in goals, but no one generates more scoring chances than Edmonton’s captain. He also sits alone atop the primary and even-strength point leaderboards. Moreover, he’s doing this while facing every team’s shutdown personnel. Even though opponents bend over backwards to stop him, it just doesn’t matter.

The best player in the world has been the best postseason performer once again.

Who’s your front-runner?

Smayan:

I gotta go Leon here, I mean he’s got 2 overtime goals in the Stanley Cup Final. To be specific, he has 2 game-winning goals, which is crazy, and is now the 5th ever player in Stanley Cup history to have multiple overtime goals during the series. Draisaitl’s four OT goals this playoffs are the most in a single postseason. John LeClair was the last to score two OT goals in a final for Montreal back in 1993, the last time a Canadian team won the Cup. Ironic, huh?

At this point, Leon really feels like the definition of clutch. Like I said at the start of the series,

Leon is absolutely everywhere when we’re talking about playoff statistics. He deserves to win this with his playoff performance this year. He has 11 goals and 21 assists, which comes to 32 points in the Stanley Cup playoffs.

You picked McDavid. In your opinion, what do you think Draisaitl needs to overthrow McDavid and take this trophy?

Vinh:

As you explained, Draisaitl’s case over McDavid rests on the “clutch performer” angle. In order to fully sway voters, he would need to maintain/boost his production and deliver another big moment vs. the Panthers. Can you imagine him scoring a THIRD OT winner in the Cup final? Narratives matter in this process, and that kind of crunch-time output would be impossible to overlook.

Of course, a clutch-oriented argument hinges upon Edmonton winning it all without McDavid going berserk in the next few games. Just one year ago, Connor willed his team to victory with 8 points combined in Games 4-5. We know what he can do.

Although we’ve both picked Oilers, this series remains very much up for grabs. If the Panthers end up repeating as champions, which player stands out to you?

Smayan:

It’s going to be simple, but I have to go with Sam Bennett here. At this point, the goals just cannot be ignored, and it isn’t about the best player in the Stanley Cup Final (though that certainly has an impact), but it’s about the best player in the playoffs. Bennett currently has 4 more goals this postseason than 2nd place, my current Conn Smythe trophy pick, Leon Draisaitl.

What we need to realize is, Bennett has been a menace on the road, with a 6-game road goal streak. He’s one of the biggest reasons for Florida scoring 61 road goals, just this postseason! Bennett has also been insanely clutch in the championship series, with 5 goals, which while it is not the leading amount on his team (behind Marchand), it just shows what a huge role he’s played.

Now, I’m just going to push the same question back to you. If the Panthers end up repeating as champions, which player stands out to you?

Vinh:

Even though Marchand has come on strong in the finals and six Panthers are within three points of each other in the team’s scoring race, I have to pick Bennett as well.

Beyond leading the entire field in goals (15), it’s mainly a matter of consistency. Florida’s 2C has been productive since the start of playoffs, only failing to register a point in five of the club’s 22 games. He may not control the action the way other candidates do, but the Panthers can depend on his threat night in and night out.

He carries a heavier 200-foot burden than Marchand too—not only in terms of position (center vs. winger) but also linemates. Anton Lundell and Eetu Luostarinen have been the forward corps’ most effective forecheckers and defenders, which frees up Marchand to flex his offense. Bennett, meanwhile, has been flanked by a sluggish Matthew Tkachuk and either Carter Verhaeghe or Evan Rodrigues. Quite a different set of circumstances.

Of course, Florida repeating doesn’t necessarily mean a Panther will claim the Conn Smythe. McDavid took it home in a losing effort last spring. If Edmonton falls again, which Oiler would stand the best chance of winning the award?

Smayan:

I’m going to have to drift towards McDavid here. I believe that if the Oilers somehow win this series, Leon is one of the biggest reasons (with those 2 overtime goals) for the win. At least, clutchness-wise. Other than that, though, McDavid has completely dominated this year’s playoffs, just like you said, Vinh, and although McDavid and Draisaitl are tied when we look at points, we got to talk about the giveaways at some point.

There isn’t really much else to say here.

Vinh, what about you?

Vinh:

I’m sticking with McDavid here. Despite the neck-and-neck production, I’ve found Connor more impressive than Leon throughout the playoffs. Opponents, including Florida, have been hanging on for dear life during his shifts. He’s also been snake-bitten, as he leads the league in shots off the post (5). He hit a pair of them in Game 5.

To my eyes, Draisaitl hasn’t been himself in the Stanley Cup Final. Lots of giveaways and he ranks just sixth on the team in expected goals at 5-on-5.

If one of these two superstars is likely to explode on the score sheet—and that’s what it will take to win playoff MVP as a member of the losing team—I’ve got my money on McDavid.

Moving beyond the obvious names, which long shots could make a late push for the Conn Smythe?

Smayan:

Long shots, huh? I don’t know if he really counts as one, but I think Sergei Bobrovsky is an easy pick for this category. He’s got 537 saves in the playoffs and is ranked as one of the best in Goals Against Average. He’s made critical saves in the playoffs this year and has been the best line of defense for the Panthers this year. He’s played basically every minute for the Panthers this year, aside from some of the rare times where they took him out for an extra skater. In all honesty, I believe that without Bobrovsky, this series would’ve been over in 4. Yes, a sweep.

Like I said, I’m not sure if Bobrovsky should count as a long shot, but I needed to talk about him because he’s another guy who deserves to win the trophy.

Who do you have, Vinh?

Vinh:

Recency bias does exist among voters, and one player who’s quietly elevated his game since the start of the third round is Matthew Tkachuk (13 points in 10 games). He keeps getting better as he shakes off the rust from his injury layoff. If he can drop 3+ points to close the series and make a major contribution to a GWG, he could enter the picture as well.

Realistically, however, the race is between Edmonton’s top dogs, Bennett and Marchand.

Smayan:

Alright, that’s it for this one. Thank you to Vinh Cao of the Virtual Hockey Scout for joining me. Be sure to subscribe to him. You can find some awesome reads there. If you liked this edition, be sure to subscribe to Sports Square as well. 2nd and 3rd editions are coming later this month.