Déjà Vu on Ice: Why This Year's Cup Final Feels Different

Edition #248

Jun 04, 2025

The Florida Panthers versus the Edmonton Oilers.
That’s the Stanley Cup Finals matchup that we’re about to see for the second time in a row.

Yes, you read that right. If you don’t remember, in 2024, the Panthers made it to the Stanley Cup Finals and then took a commanding 3-0 lead. All they needed was one win. Instead, the Oilers went on a doggone run to take the next 3 games, before the Panthers finally won in game 7, in a thrilling matchup. That was their first-ever Stanley Cup title.

But, how did this Panthers team win that cup?
Well, it came down to their goalie Sergei Bobrovsky in that Game 7. The Oilers relied heavily on their offense with NHL wonderboy Connor McDavid, who scored 8 goals and recorded 34 assists during the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs, leading all players with a total of 42 points. This performance earned him the Conn Smythe Trophy (the postseason’s MVP), even though the Oilers lost the finals.

Now, in the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs, Connor McDavid has scored 6 goals and recorded 20 assists over 16 games. He’s leading in points. Coming in behind him would be his teammate Leon Draisaitl of the Edmonton Oilers, who ranks second with 25 points.

Sam Bennett of the Florida Panthers has the most goals with 10. Connor McDavid has the most assists.

Florida definitely needs to watch out for Evan Bouchard, who is leading in points, goals, and assists for defensemen. Edmonton definitely needs to be ready for Sergei.

The crazy part is, Sergei wasn’t even a starter. In 2023, when Florida opened their first-round series against the Bruins, it was Alex Lyon as the starter for the first 3 games. But after he was pulled in the third period of Game 3, Sergei took the opportunity and went all the way. Now, he’s making his 60th consecutive postseason start.

Since the streak began on April 23, 2023, he has recorded 40 wins, including six shutouts, with a 2.40 goals-against average and a .911 save percentage. In the current postseason, he’s won 12 of 17 games, posting a 2.11 GAA, a .912 save percentage, and three shutouts.

That sort of consistency? Edmonton doesn’t have that. But when Stuart Skinner plays to his best, no one can beat him. The good thing for Edmonton would be the fact that he has been on his game as of late, allowing only five goals on 105 shots in Games 2-5 against the Dallas Stars in the Western Conference Final. What’s funny is that he gave up five goals on 27 shots in Game 1.

In the last two playoffs, Skinner has let in 30 goals during his 20 wins, including only five in six wins this year. But in his 13 losses, he’s allowed 51 goals, with 20 of those coming in four losses this year.

So, it’s going to depend on the version we see of Stuart Skinner.

Also, keep this in mind.
In the playoffs this year, road teams have won 31 of 80 games, 38.7 percent.

The Panthers, however, have been very good away from home, going 8-2 through the first three rounds. That includes the Panthers going 3-0 against the Carolina Hurricanes. They had 48 goals when they were away from home. They had 18 when they were at home.

The Oilers, on the other hand, have been extremely good at home. They have 33 goals at home, and are 6-1 at home as well.

Florida has a +27 goal differential on the road.
Its power play is 42.9%.
Its penalty kill is 88.6%.
The Oilers have a +16 goal differential, a 56.6% power play, and an 83.3% penalty kill.

There are a lot of differences between this run and the run from last year for the Panthers. Last year, they were chasing their first title. This year, they’re looking to repeat as champions for the first time since the Lightning did in 2021.

Last year, they had all their players locked down.
This year, Ekblad is in his final year of his 8-year contract.
Sam Bennett is in his final year of a 4-year contract.

Ekblad has played in 809 games in a Panthers uniform, regular season and playoffs combined. Bennett has been on this team since 2021 and leads the NHL with 10 goals in these playoffs. Both of these guys are core members of this squad. They can become legends of this franchise if they get one more here.

On the other hand, there are quite a number of differences for the Oilers as well. Last year, the Oilers were just looking for their first championship since the 1989-1990 season.
This year, they’re looking to get revenge after a crushing defeat, even after a huge comeback.

Both these franchises have something they’re looking for, which is going to make this Stanley Cup final extremely special, especially since we saw this same matchup last year.
This is going to be anything but boring.

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Predictions?
Gosh, that’s kind of hard. If anything, though, I have to go with the Panthers.

Florida is better than last season's Cup winner, and Bobrovsky is going to be the guy this series. As much as I want to see the Oilers lift that cup, and with McDavid being the face of that too, the Panthers are the team fit for it in this matchup.

Panthers in 6.

Key Player Additions and Subtractions

Edmonton Oilers

Departures:

Warren Foegele (signed by LA Kings)
Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway (offer sheeted by St. Louis Blues)

Additions:

Free Agency:
Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson (added scoring depth)
Defensemen Connor Carrick and Josh Brown
Re-signings:
Connor Brown, Adam Henrique, Mattias Janmark, Corey Perry, Leon Draisaitl, Troy Stecher
Trade Deadline:
Kasperi Kapanen (waivers)
John Klingberg
Trent Frederic and Max Jones (via a three-way trade with Boston and New Jersey)
Jake Walman (from San Jose)

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