In general, I think statisticians have concluded that "clutchness" doesn't really exist, but "ability to perform at one's real ability in the clutch" does.
In other words, "choking" does exist. So two suggestions:
1) narrow the definition of "clutch" to real game-on-the-line situations, where the QB either steps up or loses the game.
2) compare those to "non-clutch" situations: how well would we expect him to do, in a "normal" situation?
I think 2 is an awesome idea. I should definitely develop this idea more. It’s a good start.
For 1, that would basically mean I would have to watch gameplay of every single game last year, and quite frankly, I don’t want to do that. Do you know a site where I can find that?
Primarily, why have you restricted it to third and fourth downs? I understand that it's an attempt to isolate must-pass situations, but to me, that just seems like it overly punishes game manager types of players, which is why people like Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow come in so low. Additionally, in my article this week, Dak Prescott and the Cowboys were down by two points with one minute left, and he went down and scored a touchdown without seeing a single third or fourth down. Is this not clutch? It seemed clutch to me, but it would be missed altogether by this formula you've got here.
Additionally, I think of things like the Bills vs Chiefs 2021 playoff game. Was either side clutch at the end of that one? I think both sides were extraordinarily clutch, but there were very few third or fourth downs, meaning this algorithm would completely miss it.
You've got the right idea here. I like what you've got going, but things like this would be solid improvements in a second revision. Also, remember a few weeks into the year when you (the Eagles fan) were talking about Jalen Hurts being the most overrated QB going, meanwhile I (a neutral) was saying it'd come around if you gave it time? I'll take my flowers on that one any time now, especially because he came in at the number one spot here.
good work. No comments on this in particular.
In general, I think statisticians have concluded that "clutchness" doesn't really exist, but "ability to perform at one's real ability in the clutch" does.
In other words, "choking" does exist. So two suggestions:
1) narrow the definition of "clutch" to real game-on-the-line situations, where the QB either steps up or loses the game.
2) compare those to "non-clutch" situations: how well would we expect him to do, in a "normal" situation?
I think 2 is an awesome idea. I should definitely develop this idea more. It’s a good start.
For 1, that would basically mean I would have to watch gameplay of every single game last year, and quite frankly, I don’t want to do that. Do you know a site where I can find that?
Thanks Albert!
I hear you. In baseball, the results are already digitized & available. Football? I don’t know.
I know the NFL clubs do have that kind of data, but whether you can get it — I don’t know.
Yup
I do have questions about this.
Primarily, why have you restricted it to third and fourth downs? I understand that it's an attempt to isolate must-pass situations, but to me, that just seems like it overly punishes game manager types of players, which is why people like Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow come in so low. Additionally, in my article this week, Dak Prescott and the Cowboys were down by two points with one minute left, and he went down and scored a touchdown without seeing a single third or fourth down. Is this not clutch? It seemed clutch to me, but it would be missed altogether by this formula you've got here.
Additionally, I think of things like the Bills vs Chiefs 2021 playoff game. Was either side clutch at the end of that one? I think both sides were extraordinarily clutch, but there were very few third or fourth downs, meaning this algorithm would completely miss it.
You've got the right idea here. I like what you've got going, but things like this would be solid improvements in a second revision. Also, remember a few weeks into the year when you (the Eagles fan) were talking about Jalen Hurts being the most overrated QB going, meanwhile I (a neutral) was saying it'd come around if you gave it time? I'll take my flowers on that one any time now, especially because he came in at the number one spot here.
Yeah, I see what you're saying. Will definitely look to change that in a second revision.
Haha. Take the flowers for that one.