The Clutchness Factor Algorithm
OUTCOME ORACLE || Edition #244
I’ve been talking about the clutchness factor for a long time now, and I think it’s time I show you guys the results behind this clutchness factor.
I put a lot of thought into this and considered how I could develop such a formula for quarterbacks in the NFL.
Well, ladies and gentlemen. I finally did it.
The official data with all the clutchness scores are right here: DATA. Anything above a 1 is absolutely amazing. A 0 is average. A -1 and below is horrible.
This is the link to the interactive chart: CHART. Unfortunately, I wasn’t able to link this into datwrapper to embed into this post. It wasn’t working well with me.
I think one of the most surprising things that I saw here was Patrick Mahomes hovering over average, while Jameis Winston is at around 0.7. Will Levis is all the way down at around -1.7. Jalen Hurts at #1 is pretty expected, especially because of the tush push, which inflates his ratings (as it’s a 4th down play the Eagles do all the time).
WHEN USING THE DATA, PLEASE CREDIT ME. IT TOOK A LOT OF FIGURING OUT TO BUILD THIS, SO I WOULD REALLY APPRECIATE IT.
As always, any comments or questions about the data, put it in the comments section below and I will gladly answer them!
Inspiration:
(He was the guy who got me into a statistics venture. I’ve always been a stats guy, but I think a whole lot different when looking at Elo Power Rankings.) (We were the ones to first get into this huge discussion about a clutchness factor.) (He, too, makes awesome statistical content just like Neil. He was a huge inspiration for me as well.)
good work. No comments on this in particular.
In general, I think statisticians have concluded that "clutchness" doesn't really exist, but "ability to perform at one's real ability in the clutch" does.
In other words, "choking" does exist. So two suggestions:
1) narrow the definition of "clutch" to real game-on-the-line situations, where the QB either steps up or loses the game.
2) compare those to "non-clutch" situations: how well would we expect him to do, in a "normal" situation?
I do have questions about this.
Primarily, why have you restricted it to third and fourth downs? I understand that it's an attempt to isolate must-pass situations, but to me, that just seems like it overly punishes game manager types of players, which is why people like Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow come in so low. Additionally, in my article this week, Dak Prescott and the Cowboys were down by two points with one minute left, and he went down and scored a touchdown without seeing a single third or fourth down. Is this not clutch? It seemed clutch to me, but it would be missed altogether by this formula you've got here.
Additionally, I think of things like the Bills vs Chiefs 2021 playoff game. Was either side clutch at the end of that one? I think both sides were extraordinarily clutch, but there were very few third or fourth downs, meaning this algorithm would completely miss it.
You've got the right idea here. I like what you've got going, but things like this would be solid improvements in a second revision. Also, remember a few weeks into the year when you (the Eagles fan) were talking about Jalen Hurts being the most overrated QB going, meanwhile I (a neutral) was saying it'd come around if you gave it time? I'll take my flowers on that one any time now, especially because he came in at the number one spot here.