Contact, Control, and Clutch: The Data Behind Jacob Wilson’s All-Star Rise
Edition #258
Jacob Wilson. No, he doesn’t have a middle name. I usually like introducing these guy by their full name. Oh well.
This guy is the son of MLB player Jack Wilson, but even if that got him a little nudge to the MLB, he’s really shown everyone that he’s stepping out of his dad’s shoes and making a name for himself. How? A .339 average? A 108 hits through 81 games. This guy is 2nd to Aaron Judge, a 3-time MVP, in hits and average, barely behind him in both.
Stats aside, the fans love him. For the All-Star Game this year, the MLB announced that Jacob Wilson will be starting shortstop for the American League. Reminder, Wilson is a rookie. Wilson is the first A’s shortstop to start the All-Star Game since Bert Campaneris in 1975. He also joins Jason Giambi and Josh Donaldson as the only A’s players to win the All-Star fan vote since 1993. The most recent, Josh Donaldson, was in 2014, 11 years ago.
When you take a look a Jacob Wilson, you would see the perfect contact hitter. A guy who hits for average gets hits. According to Wilson himself, he wanted to be more like Luis Arraez and Nico Hoerner. He sure is. Only Arráez has a lower strikeout rate than Wilson's 6.8%, but Wilson can hit home runs too, with 9 of them this year, compared to Arráez’s 1.
Wilson provides the best run value for his team when he faces the slider, with the number getting to 11, with a batting average of .400, slugging of .727, and an xwOBA of .390. His run value numbers against the slider have increased by 13. It was his least productive pitch last year, so you can already see the improvement.
If you don’t understand what you’re looking at above, here’s a rundown. When taking a look at run value, Wilson adds +4 runs at the heart of the plate, 0 runs when we’re looking at the shadow, +6 runs in the chase zone, and +4 runs in the waste zone.
At the heart of the plate, Wilson swings at around 70% of the pitches that are in that part of the plate, and he takes 30% of them. That is a bit below league average when we take a look swings.
Now let’s look at the shadow of the plate, where Wilson loves swinging that bat. He swings at more than 57% of those pitches and takes 43%, 5% above league average. He doesn’t add the greatest run value there, but it isn’t negative.
In the chase zone, Wilson is at a 29% swing rate and has a take rate of 71%, 7% better than the league average, but also 20% worse than Juan Soto, who currently leads in walks. He’s averaging a run value of +22 runs in that zone, but I’m just rambling.
Finally, the waste zone. Wilson is 3% worse than the league average, swinging at around 9% of the pitches in the waste zone. Not the best, but he definitely adds value there.
Let’s dive into his swing. The bat speed comes to 64 MPH. The current MLB average is 72 MPH. Now, interestingly, Jacob Wilson’s attack angle is at 2 degrees. The current MLB average is at 10 degrees, and according to players, you get the most value from 5-20 degree attack angles. A lower attack angle results in a groundball. A higher one results in a fly ball.
Wilson has a very high groundball percentage. In fact, he’s 9th in the league when it comes to ground ball percentage. This is one of the main reasons why I believe Wilson isn’t a huge power hitter right now. Even with this attack angle statistic, though, he still has 16 doubles. Arraez, on the other hand, has a very low ground ball rate.
Now attack angle isn’t hurting Wilson in any way. Personally, I believe that Wilson’s attack angle coming in at -1 degrees is pretty good. It just shows that he’s using the whole field when it comes to hitting the ball. A positive degree means more of a pull. A negative degree means more oppo. Freddie Freeman also has an attack angle of -1 degrees.
Finally, swing path. Jacob Wilson has a swing path at a 35-degree angle. The MLB average is 32. There isn’t anything to nitpick about this, but his swing is a lot like Mookie Betts when we look at this aspect.
Now, let’s just compare this to Arraez. His bat speed gets up to 62 MPH, with a 6-degree attack angle and a 5-degree attack direction. That -5 degree attack direction is one of the biggest reasons why Arraez is a contact hitter. More than driving a ball pull side, he’s ready to use the field and hit one on the opposite side. That’s Arraez’s premier game right there. Finally, his swing path comes to around a 37-degree angle.
Wilson is all of this, but what exactly is his weakness?
Defense.
Wilson, who plays shortstop, has an outs above average number of -2, and in 291 attempts, he has a success rate of 66%. He’s made 7 errors on the field, and only Carlos Correa and Anthony Volpe have more than him (qualified).
So, as fans, what do you want from your pitchers to stop Wilson? The sinker is a really good pitch to stop Wilson. He currently has a -1 run value against it, and a .248 XBA (expected batting average), and a 4.5 K%. Another pitch just like this is the sweeper. He currently has a -1 run value against it, a .167 batting average against it, a 22.5 whiff percentage, and an 11.1 K%. If you really want to strike him out, though, the classic curveball has been doing its trick, with an 18.2 K%. Whatever you do, though, don’t throw him the cutter or the slider.
According to Wilson, one of the biggest reasons he does so good out on the field is video games.
"Kids are going to love this one. Parents are going to hate me," Wilson said. "I am a big believer in video games. It's fast decision-making strategy. I think that gets me ready for the game, because when you're in the box, you have to process a lot. So there's some days where I'll wake up and I'll play video games and then I'll go to the field, and I'll have a good day. Some days I won't play and don't see the ball well. I think it really helps me train kind of the decision-making that I have to make six, seven hours later at the baseball field."
Personally, I was lucky enough to get an autographed ball and cap from Wilson when I was in the Bay last year. This kid is going to be awesome, and another legend in the making.
It must be noted that it's extremely difficult to post a positive run value in the shadow, because a ball in the shadow is a pitcher's pitch. If the ball is thrown into the corner (any corner), that almost always means the pitcher has accomplished his goal. This is why leaguewide, hitters lose value both by swinging at them and by taking them on average. If you swing, it's a tough pitch to hit. If you take, it's a called strike.
Therefore, even a run value of zero against pitches in the shadow against any pitch is extremely impressive. Jacob chooses to do this by swinging. This is perfectly okay, since hitters are hurt just by the pitcher making the pitch, whether they swing or take. You can approach it any way you want. Jacob chooses to do it by swinging a ton, and if he can provide zero value on pitches out there, he should keep doing this, because anything other than negative is extremely difficult.
The reason Jacob Wilson is productive and Luis Arraez is not is because the objective of baseball is not to get hits. The objective is to score runs. Luis hits way too many singles. He would be a significantly more productive player if the batting average went down and the slugging percentage went up. With Jacob Wilson though, this is not true. He is no slugger, but his SLG% of .468 is higher than Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Vladimir is no power hitter either, but it's a good name to be in front of, and it's indicative of the fact that Jacob finds a lot of extra base hits. Way more than enough to get by. A player like Luis Arraez (high batting average, low OBP) is a player you want hitting with runners on base, but at the same time, you would likely rather somebody with a .290 batting average and any ability at all to hit a double. This leaves a player like Luis Arraez with no spot to really go in a batting order. He's good but not perfect everywhere.
On the other hand, Jacob Wilson can go anywhere. He can both leadoff and run produce. Whatever you need from him, because he hits for enough extra bases to make himself viable in any batting order position. For Jacob, it's been either first or second, and that's fine. He can move back if Sacramento manages to find another good hitter, or he can hit in front of them. He's very versatile, in a way a player like Luis Arraez is not.
If he can continue hitting this way, his defence is not going to matter. Teams will try to force him at SS until he's 30 years old, to get this bat at that position. We've seen it with other guys around the league, and Jacob is better than most all of them.
In sum, Jacob Wilson is a really fun young player. This season is going to go the way this season is going, but I'm the most excited to see what changes he makes to his game next year. Is he going to keep up this style, or is he going to try to adjust a little bit to slightly tailor his game in any particular direction? It's exciting to ponder.
Big Jacob Wilson fan and believer here. Cool stuff, great read. I like seeing him swinging at shadow-zone pitches at an above-average clip while being more selective over the heart of the plate; shows he’s confident in what he’s seeing and only swings at what he likes. Maybe a shift to 2B is in his future?