It must be noted that it's extremely difficult to post a positive run value in the shadow, because a ball in the shadow is a pitcher's pitch. If the ball is thrown into the corner (any corner), that almost always means the pitcher has accomplished his goal. This is why leaguewide, hitters lose value both by swinging at them and by taking them on average. If you swing, it's a tough pitch to hit. If you take, it's a called strike.
Therefore, even a run value of zero against pitches in the shadow against any pitch is extremely impressive. Jacob chooses to do this by swinging. This is perfectly okay, since hitters are hurt just by the pitcher making the pitch, whether they swing or take. You can approach it any way you want. Jacob chooses to do it by swinging a ton, and if he can provide zero value on pitches out there, he should keep doing this, because anything other than negative is extremely difficult.
The reason Jacob Wilson is productive and Luis Arraez is not is because the objective of baseball is not to get hits. The objective is to score runs. Luis hits way too many singles. He would be a significantly more productive player if the batting average went down and the slugging percentage went up. With Jacob Wilson though, this is not true. He is no slugger, but his SLG% of .468 is higher than Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Vladimir is no power hitter either, but it's a good name to be in front of, and it's indicative of the fact that Jacob finds a lot of extra base hits. Way more than enough to get by. A player like Luis Arraez (high batting average, low OBP) is a player you want hitting with runners on base, but at the same time, you would likely rather somebody with a .290 batting average and any ability at all to hit a double. This leaves a player like Luis Arraez with no spot to really go in a batting order. He's good but not perfect everywhere.
On the other hand, Jacob Wilson can go anywhere. He can both leadoff and run produce. Whatever you need from him, because he hits for enough extra bases to make himself viable in any batting order position. For Jacob, it's been either first or second, and that's fine. He can move back if Sacramento manages to find another good hitter, or he can hit in front of them. He's very versatile, in a way a player like Luis Arraez is not.
If he can continue hitting this way, his defence is not going to matter. Teams will try to force him at SS until he's 30 years old, to get this bat at that position. We've seen it with other guys around the league, and Jacob is better than most all of them.
In sum, Jacob Wilson is a really fun young player. This season is going to go the way this season is going, but I'm the most excited to see what changes he makes to his game next year. Is he going to keep up this style, or is he going to try to adjust a little bit to slightly tailor his game in any particular direction? It's exciting to ponder.
Big Jacob Wilson fan and believer here. Cool stuff, great read. I like seeing him swinging at shadow-zone pitches at an above-average clip while being more selective over the heart of the plate; shows he’s confident in what he’s seeing and only swings at what he likes. Maybe a shift to 2B is in his future?
Same here. Been a fan ever since he made his debut.
I personally think that the defense is going to come around sooner or later. It's not going to be very bad, but it's certainly something to keep an eye on. I'd say they're still going to run with him at shortstop for the next couple of years. I, too, love the fact that he's swinging at those shadow-zone pitches. Brings to the overall contact aspect.
It must be noted that it's extremely difficult to post a positive run value in the shadow, because a ball in the shadow is a pitcher's pitch. If the ball is thrown into the corner (any corner), that almost always means the pitcher has accomplished his goal. This is why leaguewide, hitters lose value both by swinging at them and by taking them on average. If you swing, it's a tough pitch to hit. If you take, it's a called strike.
Therefore, even a run value of zero against pitches in the shadow against any pitch is extremely impressive. Jacob chooses to do this by swinging. This is perfectly okay, since hitters are hurt just by the pitcher making the pitch, whether they swing or take. You can approach it any way you want. Jacob chooses to do it by swinging a ton, and if he can provide zero value on pitches out there, he should keep doing this, because anything other than negative is extremely difficult.
The reason Jacob Wilson is productive and Luis Arraez is not is because the objective of baseball is not to get hits. The objective is to score runs. Luis hits way too many singles. He would be a significantly more productive player if the batting average went down and the slugging percentage went up. With Jacob Wilson though, this is not true. He is no slugger, but his SLG% of .468 is higher than Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Vladimir is no power hitter either, but it's a good name to be in front of, and it's indicative of the fact that Jacob finds a lot of extra base hits. Way more than enough to get by. A player like Luis Arraez (high batting average, low OBP) is a player you want hitting with runners on base, but at the same time, you would likely rather somebody with a .290 batting average and any ability at all to hit a double. This leaves a player like Luis Arraez with no spot to really go in a batting order. He's good but not perfect everywhere.
On the other hand, Jacob Wilson can go anywhere. He can both leadoff and run produce. Whatever you need from him, because he hits for enough extra bases to make himself viable in any batting order position. For Jacob, it's been either first or second, and that's fine. He can move back if Sacramento manages to find another good hitter, or he can hit in front of them. He's very versatile, in a way a player like Luis Arraez is not.
If he can continue hitting this way, his defence is not going to matter. Teams will try to force him at SS until he's 30 years old, to get this bat at that position. We've seen it with other guys around the league, and Jacob is better than most all of them.
In sum, Jacob Wilson is a really fun young player. This season is going to go the way this season is going, but I'm the most excited to see what changes he makes to his game next year. Is he going to keep up this style, or is he going to try to adjust a little bit to slightly tailor his game in any particular direction? It's exciting to ponder.
Absolutely
Big Jacob Wilson fan and believer here. Cool stuff, great read. I like seeing him swinging at shadow-zone pitches at an above-average clip while being more selective over the heart of the plate; shows he’s confident in what he’s seeing and only swings at what he likes. Maybe a shift to 2B is in his future?
Same here. Been a fan ever since he made his debut.
I personally think that the defense is going to come around sooner or later. It's not going to be very bad, but it's certainly something to keep an eye on. I'd say they're still going to run with him at shortstop for the next couple of years. I, too, love the fact that he's swinging at those shadow-zone pitches. Brings to the overall contact aspect.
Thanks for reading!