Intro:
When he was on the Eagles, no one talked about him. When he was on the Colts, only Colts fans talked about him. Now, he’s on the Raiders and he’s achieved a major achievement.
Earning the starting job.
So, if he’s earning the starting job only now, why am I calling him the most underrated player in the NFL? Read on to find out!
Gardner Minshew Feature
History:
This man is the most underrated QB in the NFL.
He began his career with the Jacksonville Jaguars after getting drafted in the 6th round by the Jags, deemed the Jags backup QB. The starter was Philly’s hero, Nick Foles. Foles got injured in the middle of the first quarter of the first game of the season, setting up a young Gardner Minshew to continue the season for the Jaguars. He was dealing. Eventually, when Foles returned, he returned to his backup role. Foles, couldn’t do his part well and was given the backup job.
What Minshew did after that set records.
He set the rookie record for touchdowns (for the Jaguars). And, he starred in the final game football game played at the Oakland Coliseum between the Raiders and the Jaguars.
It was then set that he was the main guy for the Jags, so they traded away Nick Foles before the beginning of the 2020 season. Joshua Dobbs was acquired to be the backup.
It wasn’t a good season for Minshew. His first game was promising, but everything fell apart from there with him suffering various injuries, then coming back and still not doing well. That led him to be traded to the Eagles. During the 2021 season, Minshew got a chance to play with an injury to Jalen Hurts and knocked the socks off the New York Jets, prompting reporters to ask questions about Minshew taking the starting job in the near future.
After 2022 was the year many people around the league started talking about Minshew being a “bust” (he wasn’t a first or second-round pick). That year was horrendous for Minshew. While his first two outings were okay, the latter 2 weren’t with his interception numbers skyrocketing. In the two games he started, the Eagles did not win.
On March 17, 2023, the most under-the-radar acquisition was completed. Minshew signed a year’s contract (worth 3.5 million dollars) with the Indianapolis Colts. Anthony Richardson, the young, rookie starting QB for the Colts got put on concussion protocol and with an AC joint sprain, was out for the rest of the season. Now, Minshew was the starter again and showed the world why he’s an amazing QB, putting up a career-high 3305 yards, 15 TDs, and only 9 ints in 13 starts. He was named to his first Pro Bowl and he almost made the playoffs (without Jonathan Taylor for about half the year). It was a dream season and exactly what he needed to get on track
Now:
If you analyze all of this, you’ll probably see one thing in common. Other than 2020, every single year, Minshew got to play only because of injuries. Now, I can’t just look into the future and predict if Minshew’s going to do good (Outcome Oracle on the NFL coming soon), but he’s won the job.
I don’t want to hear stuff like, “Oh my god. He won the job only because O’Connell is too young.” That’s a factor in Antonio Pierce’s decision, but that’s not all. He has veteran experience, the Raiders know he can ball and if they can get that 2019/2021 season out of him, there’s no way this team isn’t making the playoffs.
Here are a few more reasons why, starting with the locker room. If you’re going to be a playoff contender (which a team like the Raiders can be), you need to have good morale as a team. If you don’t, you can slide like how to Eagles did. You can slide like how the Dolphins did! The next reason why? It has a lot to do with Luke Getsy. You see when he was with the Bears in 2023, the Bears were 10th in the NFL in play-action plays called. What Getsy wants is a shorter, quicker style of play, which Minshew has been great at. O’Connell isn’t good at that, and even if he could throw a bit more accurately and has a little better arm, what the Raiders want is a man who could extend plays and that’s Minshew.
Weaknesses and Strengths
Unless you’re Patrick Mahomes or Tom Brady (but even then), everyone has weaknesses. Gardner Minshew has many of them, but just like Jalen Hurts did with Tom Brady, he needs to ask someone and get help for his mistakes. Here are a few things I noticed when I watched Minshew play.
Minshew likes going back in the pocket. While that’s not a huge concern, it is when you’re dropping back 15 yards as rushers can easily get past the O-line with that much area. When these defensive pieces rush, there should still be area, towards the sides or in front. Minshew gets “scared”, scrambles, and lets the ball go as fast as possible. As he does this, his feet are unbalanced resulting in a bad throw. This is also why he throws as many interceptions as he does. Pressure, and not because of the O-Line, but something he puts on himself.
No pressure but Gardner Minshew dances in the pocket and doesn't set his feet to throw pic.twitter.com/6g0Fb3FERu
— Matt Holder (@MHolder95) March 14, 2024
Looking at more clips of Gardner Minshew, it’s evident that when he sets his feet, he throws the ball better than ever.
He knows that he doesn’t have the arm power to make it all the way downfield, but he also knows that he can scramble, get to the line of scrimmage, and then throw it all the way downfield to make the play. That’s what he does in the clip above.
Conclusion:
A bit of stat comparisons there. I tried this datawrapper thing for the first time so forgive me if it’s not looking too good. The first value is the yards and the second is the touchdowns. He’s being compared to this set as these were the teams he played on that had a QB play more than 50 games.
As you can see, his yards number isn’t that bad and he’s 2nd with the number of touchdowns through 50 games. Plus, Minshew has only played 49 games.
If you disagree with me, please tell me why in the comments. That’s it for me here folks.
This seems a bit ambitious. Gardner has had one really good season in the NFL, in 2020, where he posted a fantastic 4.3 CPOE. If you describe that as 'not a good season,' I'm not all that sure you like him very much.
Gardner in 2023 almost exactly replicated his stats from 2019 (about 0 EPA/Play, -3.3 CPOE), ignoring that he ever got better in the middle. 2023 was a down year at a time when he really really didn't need one. It could've been his chance to break out for real and become a starter teams wanted, but the accuracy was gone. You did some digging into where it went, but that can't explain it all. The really good LV offence should help this some. They carried Aidan O'Connell to an okay season last year, but there's only so far your surrounding players can take you.
If I were a fan, I would've liked my team to target all of Russell Wilson, Jacoby Brissett and Sam Darnold over him, in addition to being players in the Justin Fields market, and maybe also putting in some calls on Jake Browning. All of these players have been above average in terms of accuracy at least once in the last three years. Gardner has not. With all the good options gone, I suspect Vegas was forced to settle for Gardner Minshew. While this is an extremely good sixth option, I'm not sure if 'the most underrated QB in the NFL' is an appropriate label. I'd likely go Sam or Jacoby for that title.