From Haliburton to Holmgren: The New Age Finals Are Here
Edition #249
No one predicted it in October, but here we are in June: the Indiana Pacers and the Oklahoma City Thunder are battling for the NBA crown—and possibly the future of the league itself.
On one side, you have Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, and Jalen Williams. On the other side, you have Tyrese Haliburton, Bennedict Mathurin, and Pascal Siakam. This is going to be a good one.
Playoff Paths
The Thunder easily knocked the Timberwolves out, winning the series 4-1 and having a point differential of 33 (Game 3, the only game the Thunder lost, hurt their point differential-wise). The Pacers were also able to make do of the Knicks1, but it was closer than you would think.
The Thunder were the #1 seed in the Western Conference and boast a 12-4 record in the playoffs. They are extremely dominant at home with 8 wins and only one loss, and this postseason, on average, have scored 117.1 points per game. Their opponents have scored 106.3.
The Pacers were the #4 seed in the Eastern Conference and also boast a 12-4 record in the playoffs. They’ve broken even between home and away, with 6 wins and 2 losses on each side. They score around 117.4 points per game. Their opponents have scored 113.3.
Regular Season Snapshot
During the regular season, the Pacers averaged 117.4 points per game (7th in the NBA) at a very high pace (99.9 possessions per 48 minutes). Their offensive rating was 116.5 (9th), while their defense allowed 114.3 (ranking mid-pack).
On the other hand, the Thunder were historically efficient. They averaged 120.5 PPG (second in NBA) at the fastest pace (100.0). Their offensive rating was 120.3 (3rd-best). Their defensive rating was 107.5 (best in the NBA). This pretty much let them cruise their way to a net rating of +12.8, which was the best in the NBA. Indiana, on the other hand, had a net rating of +2.2.
Basically, Indiana’s games are won by playing a fast-paced game and scoring heavily, whereas Oklahoma City dominates by combining elite offense with stellar defense.
Star Power Breakdown
For the Pacers, it’s not just Haliburton. It’s Pascal Siakam. He’s averaging 21.1 PPG in the playoffs this year, with 5.8 RPG and 3.3 APG. He leads the Pacers in both average points and rebounds this year. Can’t forget about Hali, though, because he has an average of 9.8 APG.
On the other side, we all know about SGA. He’s averaging 29.8 PPG, with 5.7 RPG, and 6.9 APG. He leads the team in points and assists per game, but Chet Holmgren leads in the rebounds side of things, averaging 8.6 a game.
Efficiency & Shooting
The Pacers shot 48.8% from the field and 36.8% on threes, yielding a True Shooting percentage near 59%. The Pacers had a very balanced attack, which is awesome, meaning that even if one guy cooled down, they would still have a good shot at winning the game. Indiana also won the foul battle this season, leading the league in free-throw attempts differential (+5.4 over opponents).
The Thunder also shot at a high level. OKC shot 48.2% FG and 37.4% on threes, yielding a true shooting around 59% as well. Unlike the Pacers, though, on the Thunder, SGA was just the guy scoring every single time. Kyle Gimenez, Chet Holmgren, and Josh Giddey provided more on the side of complementary shooting.
Both teams really took interest in high-percentage shooting and ball control, but if we’re talking about efficiency, because of OKC’s shooting splits, they got the edge.
Recent Form & Matchups
The Pacers are currently 3-2 in their last 5. The Thunder are currently 4-1 in their last 5.
In their most recent matchup on March 6th, 2025, the Thunder demolished the Pacers 132-111, with SGA scoring 33, Kenrich Williams grabbing 8 rebounds, and SGA dishing out 8 assists. On the other side, Tyrese Haliburton had 18 points, Pascal Siakam had 9 rebounds, and Andrew Nembhard had 7 assists.
Their last 5 matchups have the Pacers on top, but if the 2 most recent ones have the Thunder winning, more recent = more accurate.
Oklahoma City went 29-1 against the Eastern Conference this year. The Pacers were the only one of the East’s playoff or Play-In teams to do better against the West than their own conference.
Keys to Victory
What’s going to be key for this Pacers team is for everyone to get in on the action. This 2024-25 Thunder team is extremely good, and if the Pacers want a chance at winning, Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam cannot do all the offensive and defensive work for this team.
If the Pacers want to win in the Finals, they need to avoid turnovers. That was one thing they were pretty good at when they played the Thunder during the regular season. The Pacers were also among the best in the league at limiting turnovers in the regular season. This is simple, right? Guess what? The Thunder were better.
The problem here is really going to be rebounding. The Pacers tried to focus on turning their opponents’ errors to their benefit, but rebounding was a weakness, with them only able to grab around 48.2% of available rebounds. The Thunder, on the other hand, made sure to incentivize that, not only leading the league in turnover percentage, but also leading the league in rebound percentage.
When the Pacers won, they won with their offense. The Thunder won on all sides of the ball. That’s going to be the difference-maker here.
Which is exactly why I still believe that this Thunder team is going to take it all this year. They’ve led a historically good team to the NBA Finals. No doubt here, the Pacers are going to be a challenge. They are pretty good if you think about attacking fast. Every single other aspect of the game is piquing my interest here. If they can find a way to stop SGA, they’re going to need a way to stop literally everybody else on the team.
I love this Pacers run, and I know they’ll be back to compete next year. But this is just the year of the Thunder, who are ready to begin the next dynasty in the National Basketball Association.
And thank you for reading. I’m actually really proud of this one. This is the kind of stuff I love talking about when it comes to basketball. I would really appreciate it if you leave a like down below, and subscribe if you like content just like this! Your brain will appreciate you.
Noooo New York!!! My NBA Finals Pick!!!