The Giants Are Falling. The Underdogs Aren’t Done.
Germany's own manager says they're no longer "first-class." The Netherlands lost on penalties for the third straight tournament.
Forget your bracket. Burn it. Start over.
The 2nd day of the 2026 World Cup Round of 32 just delivered the most violent two days of giant-killing this tournament has seen. The story is that the four-time champions Germany are out, the Netherlands are out, and this tournament has completely changed shape in 48 hours.
Let’s get into it.
Germany is not a first-class team anymore. Their coach literally said it.
You don’t get a quote like this very often. Julian Nagelsmann, standing in the wreckage of a penalty shootout loss to Paraguay, said, out loud: Germany is no longer a “first-class team.” That’s the manager saying it himself, by the way.
And the way they lost makes it worse. Kai Havertz missed. Nick Woltemade missed. Jonathan Tah missed. Three Germans stepped up in a shootout against Paraguay, a team that had finished third in their group, and three Germans failed. This is Germany. Four World Cups. A program built on never, ever losing the moments that matter. And on Monday, in Boston, in front of the world, that identity just evaporated.
This isn’t a one-off. This is a program that has now been knocked out early in three of the last four World Cups. 2018, group stage. 2022, group stage. 2026, first knockout round, to a team many casual fans couldn’t find on a map before this summer. That’s a pattern. And patterns don’t lie, even when the manager is the one calling it out.
The Dutch just lived out their worst nightmare. Again.
If Germany’s exit was a gut punch, the Netherlands’ was almost poetic in how predictable it felt if you know the history. The Oranje hadn’t lost a World Cup match in regulation since 2010. Ten wins, five draws, over fifteen years of never folding when the clock is running. But when the Dutch lose, they lose late. They lost to Argentina on penalties in the 2014 semifinal. They lost to Argentina on penalties again in the 2022 quarterfinal. And now, against Morocco, in extra time, on penalties, it happened a third time.
This team did everything right to get here. They breezed through the group, didn’t lose a single competitive match in regulation, and looked like the best attacking side outside of the obvious contenders. Cody Gakpo was electric on the left wing all tournament, scoring through circumstances that frankly go beyond soccer. And it still wasn’t enough, because when the moment came down to nerve and a coin flip dressed up as a shootout, the Dutch did the Dutch thing. Again.
There’s a deeper conversation here about whether this is now just who the Netherlands are at World Cups: brilliant, attacking, technically gifted, and fundamentally cursed when it matters most. Three penalty exits across three different tournaments is an identity.
Meanwhile, the “smaller” nations are just playing better soccer.
While two of the sport’s historical superpowers were packing their bags, the teams everybody wrote off kept finding ways to survive. Canada beat South Africa to become a co-host nation, reaching the knockouts for the first time. Cape Verde, a nation with a population smaller than most NFL stadiums hold, is still alive and now gets Argentina. Nine African nations made the Round of 32, the most in history for the continent.
Morocco just beat a Netherlands team with actual quality, not just defensive resilience. Paraguay didn’t sneak past Germany. They earned it, in regulation, in extra time, and in the shootout, against a team that’s supposed to be unbeatable in moments like that.
The expanded 48-team format is exposing something more uncomfortable for soccer giants: the gap has closed.
So what does this mean?
Two of the tournament’s most decorated programs are home before the Round of 16 even finishes. That changes things. Brazil, Argentina, France, Spain, and England are still the obvious favorites, but the margin for error just got smaller for every single one of them. Why? Because if Germany can lose to a third-place qualifier, then nobody left in this bracket should feel safe.
The giants got bounced because in 2026, “giant” doesn’t mean what it used to. The gap is closing.