The Reasons for the 49ers Woes
Edition #179
Intro:
My resolution this month was not to focus on football but on the MLB and the NBA. Unfortunately, it has gotten to the point where I just have to point out stuff that people just don’t notice.
Yes. The 49ers in Week 6 versus the Seahawks, but just to remind you, they’re 3-3. Now, one of the main reasons for the 49ers losing is they’re facing a hella amount of injuries. I’ve noticed something off though.
Read about it all, only at Sports Square.
The 49ers Woes
Injuries:
First off, we have to talk about the injuries. The 49ers cannot win lots of games with all the injuries they’re facing. From CMC to Deebo Samuel (not Week 6 though), this team is completely injured.
The 49ers are coming off a Super Bowl run in which they lost to the Kansas City Chiefs. This team retained most of their star players and even added some new ones in an effort to win the Super Bowl this time. Starting off right is pretty important in the NFL, even though we don’t feel it like that. Teams that start 3-3 have a 39% chance of making the playoffs. That’s still a huge amount though.
Ricky Pearsall, the 49ers' rookie, was shot right before the regular season, and his practice window is finally opening. Do you know what else is opening? The depth for the WR position. Now, you have Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and Jauan Jennings. When Deebo was injured, they had to sift from a 3WR, 1TE offense to a 2WR, 2TE.
More than that and an excuse 49ers fans can use for their Week 5 loss against the Cardinals was that they lost because they didn’t have a kicker. Jake Moody got injured earlier in the game and the 49ers had to go for a 4th and like 22 during the 4th quarter. A skilled Cardinals win obviously that they even forced it into that type of situation to end the game, but if the 49ers had just kicked it into the FG, it would’ve been a 49ers win.
NOTABLE INJURIES
Jordan Mason (QUESTIONABLE)
Christian McCaffery
Ricky Pearsall
Javon Hargrave
Jake Moody
Malik Mustapha (QUESTIONABLE)
Talanoa Hufanga
Ambry Thomas
Curtis Robinson
Charvarius Ward
Dre Greenlaw
Matthew Wright (QUESTIONABLE)
Jordan Elliott
Those are the 13 most notable players injured (according to ESPN). There are a few more players that I’ve not added.
This article isn’t just about injuries, though. Let’s dig deeper, specifically into Brock Purdy’s play.
Brock Purdy’s Play:
The pocket and then the scrambling.
When I analyzed Gardner Minshew, calling him the most underrated QB in the NFL, I did a little part in the end looking at his weaknesses and strengths. I came to a conclusion that Gardner Minshew needs to set his feet if he wants to be successful.
I wanna do the same with Brock Purdy.
As you can see, the line of scrimmage is the 23-yard line. From there, he moves all the way back to the 36-yard line and releases the ball. The motion is very helpful, throwing it to the 10-yard line. This is how Purdy gets most of his completions. Unlike Gardner Minshew, he’s very athletic. The one problem with this is the fact that rushers can run past the O-Line (just like we saw in the video) and can get to Brock. That hasn’t proved to be a problem yet.
This is something Brock added to his game in the summer.
All of Brock Purdy’s biggest plays this season have come when he’s on the move.
Now, here’s Purdy’s weakness. It’s not a huge one that you should care about, but it is something.
If you’re going to be an NFL QB, you need to know how to pass on the run. Brock Purdy does that. What he doesn't do is pass in the pocket. This is pretty hard, but this is also the NFL. Take a look at the diagram below.
That was all based on data. Let’s also look at a throw from Derek Carr this year when he played the Eagles.
In the video above, Derek Carr stayed in the pocket, and even with all the rushers coming at him (the Saints don’t have a very good OL), he stayed in the pocket and made a good throw a few yards down the field for a first down. No, this isn’t a big play, but like I said, it isn’t supposed to be a big deal at all. Not many QBs in the NFL are good at this. Not throwing picks in this situation is something all NFL QBs are good at. This though, is something Brock Purdy does as all/almost all of his interceptions have all come off these plays.
Remember, Brock is a 3rd year QB which means he still has a lot to learn. The aspect of staying in the pocket is one of them.
Splits:
I was sifting through ESPN’s Purdy page when I saw this. Take a look at Purdy’s splits.
The 49ers’ defense is still holding strong for them, especially Fred Warner who has 50 tackles, 2 INTs, and 4 forced fumbles. This might be the leading force pushing the 49ers to a good playoff spot and even a Super Bowl berth.
Thanks for reading this article!
I'm beginning to sound like a broken record, Smayan. We wholly disagree on Brock Purdy.
The NFL has changed. Pocket presence does not mean what it used to mean. I know what I always say. Sack rate is a QB stat. In fact, it's THE QB stat, meaning it's the stat that the QB, individually, has the most control over. Your teammates can help you a little bit to not get sacked, but not as much as they can help you complete passes, accrue yards, throw touchdowns, etc..
As we're seeing with Jayden Daniels right now, as long as you can be productive and complete passes, who cares if you do it from inside the pocket or outside? Maybe some offensive linemen who don't want to do that much work, but there's no connection between offensive success and not throwing the ball on the move, as long as the QB is good at it. This reveals the real definition of pocket presence: how long can you hold the ball, without taking a sack?
There is more than one way to be successful, but it doesn't take any pocket presence to hit the back foot and get the ball out on time. Joe Burrow's lack of any pocket presence whatsoever is why the Bengals' offence has to operate the way it does.
Holding the ball is how you allow big plays to happen. You allow receivers to get open deeper down the field, etc.. Plays where the ball is held longer (but there is no sack) create scramble drill scenarios, and generally good things happen for the offence. On the condition that he can avoid a sack, I want my QB holding the ball as long as possible. This is what all the greats do.
Hold the ball forever, but don't get sacked.
This is really rough, and comes with obvious issues, but here is a back of the envelope measure of pocket presence: Who holds the ball longest, but maintains a below average sack rate?
Would you look at that?
1. Brock Purdy (3.17 seconds), and then there is a gulf before you get to...
2. Lamar Jackson (3.04)
3. Bo Nix (2.96), which is extremely impressive out of a rookie, and may indicate he's got some good years ahead of him.
4. Josh Allen (2.91)
T-5. Jordan Love (2.81)
T-5. Patrick Mahomes (2.81)
Looking at the names on this list, you can see that this is a skill that tends to separate the men from the boys. Far from thinking his pocket presence is inadequate, I actually think Brock has a serious argument for the best pocket presence in the NFL, because he can somehow manage to hold the ball all night (3.17 average time to throw is actually the longest in the NFL), and not get sacked. What people think Lamar Jackson is in terms of sack avoidance is what Brock Purdy actually is, and THIS is why Brock Purdy topped my QB tier list last year, while I never put Jimmy G higher than tenth.
This sack rate stuff is individual. It's not the SF system. Brock Purdy would still be not just great but number one at this if you put him in another uniform, and therefore would be an elite QB in any uniform. What people need to look into is why Brock is throwing into coverage more than any other QB in the NFL. Probably because he has no receivers that are open due to being stuck with really poor receivers for injury reasons, so he has to consistently force balls into tight windows, and still has a CPOE way above 0 by the way.
In short, I think Brock Purdy is elite. I think he was the MVP of the NFL last year, but didn't win the award because 'wow, Lamar so pretty', and should be getting MVP looks this year considering he's dragging the trash on offence he's been surrounded with to still be a top five pass offence in the NFL right now, but he won't. The NFL world discriminates against QBs who were not selected in the first round, and Brock Purdy (and his fans, like me) is feeling the full brunt of that right now.
Sorry for the rant buddy. You've hit a nerve with this one with the discrimination being so blatant and clear to see, not on your part, but on the part of anybody who thinks any other QB could do what Brock Purdy is doing right now.
Purdy’s a really interesting QB. Part of why he established himself as the starter in Year 1 was because he was willing to stand in the pocket and take big hits, but he also possessed this crazy playmaking ability off-script. It’s kind of fascinating that his pocket presence isn’t where it should be right now, but this year just feels like one of those seasons where things are just a bit… off.
Either way, I don’t think anyone’s pointing the finger at him right now, and for good reason. He’s put them in great positions to win each week, and the defence just hasn’t done what they’ve needed to do to get them there.