NFL Divisional Round: The Keys That Could Make or Break Every Contender
Pressure, panic, and one fatal flaw per team. Here’s exactly what will decide the postseason.
Hey everyone!
I’m working on a couple of articles coming out over the next few days, so I’m reusing last week’s piece on team weaknesses, but I’m putting my own spin on it to make it fresh and original for this week. We’ll also look at the keys of the game. If you’re updated on the weaknesses, just scroll to the key points section.
Let’s dive in!
Weaknesses:
Denver Broncos:
The Broncos’ offense often sputtered without a true ground game or big-play punch. Denver ranked just 25th in rushing success and dead last in yards after contact. Without an effective run threat, opponents could crowd the line and force QB Bo Nix into predictable throws. They had a pattern of slow starts and late-game breakdowns, where Denver gave up leads in the fourth quarter. In tight games, the Broncos tended to falter. For example, allowing the Chargers to score 10 points in the final five minutes of one contest while Denver failed to achieve even one first down. This habit of stalling out (especially late) suggests Denver could struggle if forced to play from behind in the playoffs.
New England Patriots:
New England’s defense showed a glaring vulnerability against the run. After a hot start, the Patriots struggled against rushing attacks late in the season, finishing 29th in rushing success rate and near the bottom of the league in run-defense efficiency. Key interior defenders went down with injuries, and opponents repeatedly exploited the situation, often gashing New England on the ground. This recurring issue, failure to stop the run, means playoff teams can dictate the clock with rushes. If the Patriots face an elite running offense (or even a steady ground attack), that habit of yielding big runs could break them in a winner-take-all game.
Houston Texans:
The Texans’ chief flaw was an inability to run effectively. Houston ended the year as one of the worst rushing teams in the league. They ranked 30th in rushing success rate and were near the bottom in nearly every metric of efficiency. Even after QB C.J. Stroud returned from injury, the ground game never recovered; yards before contact and yards after contact were both poor. This means Houston often struggled to sustain drives or control the clock, relying heavily on Stroud’s arm and its elite defensive line. In the playoffs, this one-dimensional offense (essentially “pass-or-bust”) could be a liability. Opposing defenses will dare Houston to run; if the run game falters, the Texans’ offense can become ultra-predictable and easier to stop.
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo’s offense thrived on the ground in 2025, but its defense did not. The Bills were soft against the run; PFF rated their run-defense 27th in the league. Key losses (like DL Ed Oliver) left gaps, and opponents regularly ran wild. In fact, Buffalo’s EPA per rush allowed was 30th in the NFL, and both Miami and Atlanta had over 150 rushing yards in wins against Buffalo late in the year. This pattern of yielding big running games suggests a habit that could hurt them in the postseason: a playoff opponent that pounds the ball can control the game and keep Josh Allen off the field. Until Buffalo proves it can stop the run, that deficiency remains a glaring Achilles’ heel.
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle’s offense looked sharp under Sam Darnold in the regular season, but he still cracks under pressure. When Darnold is hurried, he tends to make game-changing mistakes. In 2025, he threw the most interceptions in the NFL (8) when pressured, and his overall PFF grade under pressure was only 47.9. In two games against the L.A. Rams he was pressured 38% of dropbacks, sacked six times, and threw four picks. Seattle’s defense was elite and often helped, but the pattern is clear: when the pass rush gets home, Darnold can implode. In a tight playoff atmosphere, facing ferocious fronts, this habit of turnover-proneness under duress could surface and stall Seattle’s potent offense.
Chicago Bears
Chicago’s season was highlighted by a great running game, but its defense lacked a true pass-rush. Even as an 11-6 division winner, the Bears pressured quarterbacks on only 32.2% of dropbacks (25th in NFL), and recorded just 41 sacks (19th). In short, their defensive line rarely disrupted opposing QBs. This trend held all year, without a dominant edge rusher; they allow quarterbacks extra time to pick them apart. In the playoffs, to contend for a Super Bowl, you usually need game-changing pass rushers; Chicago’s habit of yielding clean pockets could be exploited by good offenses. Even back-to-back cornerback monsters on defense can’t compensate if the offense keeps opponents’ quarterbacks comfortable.
Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles rebuilt around Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua, and that connection was lethal. But even the league’s highest-scoring offense had a weakness: pass protection. PFF graded the Rams’ pass-blocking just 25th in the NFL. Late-season line shuffling (injuries to tackles Jackson and Havenstein) allowed pressure rates to climb in December. Stafford, now 38, can’t evade pressure as he once did, so when the line faltered, he got hit more. In crunch time, this habit of giving up pressure could be exploited; if a blitz-heavy defense or edge rushers pin their ears back, the Rams might not sustain drives. In short, a collapsing pocket is Los Angeles’s recurring vulnerability heading into the postseason.
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco remained a juggernaut on offense, but its defense had one glaring flaw: no pass rush. After losing Nick Bosa early in the year, the 49ers recorded just 24 sacks (fewest in NFL) and pressured opposing quarterbacks only 30.5% of dropbacks (also last). Even with their talent, they simply lacked horses up front to disrupt tackles. This meant opponents’ quarterbacks often had too much time, a habit that could prove costly in the playoffs. Strong offenses, say, a team with a quick-strike passing game, can exploit San Francisco’s meek pressure by cooking them with long drives. The 49ers’ pattern of failing to get after the QB stands out as their key weakness in a high-pressure postseason environment.
Keys To The Games:
49ers vs Seahawks
The connection:
This game is pressure vs panic. San Francisco can’t rush the passer. Seattle’s quarterback crumbles when he’s pressured.
49ers’ key:
They have to manufacture pressure. Blitzes, simulated pressure, late linebacker creeps, anything. If they let Sam Darnold sit clean, Seattle’s offense hums, and the 49ers’ biggest defensive flaw gets exposed. This is one of the few matchups where scheme has to replace talent.
Seahawks’ key:
Protect Darnold at all costs. Quick game, play-action, moving pockets. If Seattle can neutralize the rush even a little, they flip the script and turn San Francisco’s lack of pressure into a fatal weakness. This is winnable if Darnold isn’t forced into hero ball.
Texans vs Patriots
The connection:
Houston can’t run. New England can’t stop the run. That sounds like a stalemate, but it actually tilts the game.
Texans’ key:
Prove you can be patient. Houston doesn’t need 150 rushing yards, but it does need to stay balanced enough to keep New England honest. If they abandon the run early, the Patriots can sit on routes and dare Stroud to be perfect for four quarters.
Patriots’ key:
Run the ball until Houston proves it can stop you. This is about control. New England’s path is ugly, slow, and physical: shorten the game, win time of possession, and keep Stroud watching from the sideline. If the Pats let this turn into a shootout, they lose.
Bills vs Broncos
The connection:
Buffalo can run. Denver can’t stop it late. Denver needs balance. Buffalo can take that away.
Bills’ key:
Lean into the ground game and force Denver to crack. Buffalo doesn’t need Josh Allen to play superhero here. If they pound the ball, they expose Denver’s late-game fatigue and keep Bo Nix in obvious passing situations. This is a clock-control playoff win waiting to happen.
Broncos’ key:
Start fast or else. Denver cannot fall behind. If they do, Buffalo’s run game bleeds them dry, and their offense stalls out. The Broncos need early points and sustained drives to avoid the exact late-game collapse pattern that’s haunted them all year.
Rams vs Bears
The connection:
The Rams can score on anyone. The Bears can’t rush the passer. That’s a dangerous combo.
Rams’ key:
Keep Stafford upright just long enough. Chicago doesn’t have the pass rush to punish a shaky line consistently. If the Rams avoid self-inflicted protection busts, Stafford and Puka can pick apart clean pockets all day.
Bears’ key:
Create pressure somehow, anyway. Blitz, stunt, disguise. If they let Stafford play on schedule, it’s over. Chicago’s secondary is strong, but coverage only works if the quarterback feels heat. No pressure means death by a thousand completions.
Solid breakdown. That 49ers-Seahawks matchup analysis is brilliant because it flips the script on what makes a good matchup. SF's lack of pass rush would be a huge problem against most teams, but against Darnold it becomes kinda strategic if they can manufacturepressure through scheming. Been seeing too many playoff previews that just list strengths, this weakness-based approach feels way more realistic.