INCREDIBLY SPECIAL EDITION || Chris Ballard Needs to Rethink His Offseason Strategy || Sports Summit #1

Edition #224

Smayan’s Note:

Welcome to the Sports Summit, a quarterly event at Sports Square. This is one of Sports Square’s renowned events and has featured a former ESPN, New York Times, and many checkmarked writers on Substack. Today, we will see Cody Manning from Sporting News, another highly renowned sports site.

The plan for this year’s Sports Summit is very simple. We will have 2 collaboration posts, 1 mailbag post, and then a record-breaking roundup. This is going to be incredibly exciting, so sit back, relax, and enjoy the reading.

Please share this with all your friends or on your Substack/socials so that everyone gets a taste of these amazing articles, and let’s do this!

Please note that some of this information may be out of place because of yesterday's NFL tampering period. A normal post on that will come after the Sports Summit.

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Introduction:

Smayan:

The Sports Summit is finally here, and I know you’ve all been waiting for this time to arrive. In the coming days (not including today), we have a lot in store for us. I’m going to be writing an article with a very famous author, someone I really admire here, and we’re going to finish it up with a world-record breaking (at least, to what I think) roundup.

I’m ready, but are you?

I wanted to start this off with a banger, so instead of saving the most-advertised piece for last (like I usually do), why don’t we begin with it this year?

The guy I’m going to be writing with today is a Colts writer for sportingnews.com, someone who once wrote for USA Today’s Colts Wire, and someone who helped start Biltzalytics, a scouting and media company. Cody Manning, welcome to Sports Square! Happy to have you here and excited to talk some football with you!

Cody:

I appreciate the kind words you had to say about me and the invite to talk some football, with a focus on the Colts. For anyone who hasn’t come across my work, I have been writing and producing audio/video content since 2018.

These days I am more focused on the Colts and fantasy football content for my YouTube channel but also have a history of covering the NFL as a whole and diving into NFL Draft classes.

I have had the chance to attend the NFL Combine and Senior Bowl, which are great events to go to for aspiring writers, scouts, or anyone who works in football because it gives you the opportunity to network with those in the industry.

With that being said, I am not the type of person who enjoys writing about himself, so let’s talk about where the Colts are headed this offseason and any other NFL topics you would like to discuss.

Chris Ballard Needs to Rethink His Offseason Strategy

SSW:

The Colts are a very interesting team this year. They’re also a team that I’ve been following (as a sort of fan) for a long time, and I’ve been deeply immersed in Colts stuff ever since Shane Steichen became the head coach of this team, and for the obvious fact that I’m a huge Eagles fan.

With that being said, I had a lot of hopes for the Colts to make the playoffs this season and to finally end the 5-year-long playoff drought (the last time they made it was 2020). Unfortunately, that didn’t happen, and the season ended with an absolutely gut-wrenching and heartbreaking loss to the New York Giants. Actually, anytime you lose to the Giants, especially in this era, it’s gut-wrenching and heartbreaking.

With that being said, if the Colts really want to make it to the top, they’re going to need to rethink their offseason strategy. Chris Ballard has very strict principles. Building through the draft, financial prudence in free agency, strength in the trenches, patience, and the retention of core players.

Suppose you don’t know what I mean. In that case, I’m basically saying that Chris Ballard prefers to build over the draft, instead of free agency, prefers to let the initial wave of free agency pass before spending, like building his offensive and defensive lines (at least, that’s what he was doing), waits things out until the perfect opportunity, and chases homegrown talent.

But Chris Ballard is definitely on the hot seat this year, and I feel like this is going to result in the Colts spending some cash this offseason. If Ballard goes, Steichen goes.

Cody, I want to know what your thoughts are about his principles. Is he going to stick with them this off-season now that he’s presumably on the hot seat? Or will he change and start spending that cash? The free agency class doesn’t look super good this season, but Ballard loves his rentals.

Cody:

I believe that Ballard will change his approach to free agency this offseason because it is a playoff run or bust for his and Steichen’s job security heading into 2026. In his post-season press conference, he addressed the need to do a better job of adding competition to his roster, something that he failed to do multiple times during his run as the general manager.

Whether it was a couple of years ago when it was clear that the team needed receiver help or this past season when he avoided bringing in a veteran cornerback to a room that needed depth and experience. Both ended up hurting the team when the players he bet on didn’t step up or the position groups were devastated with injuries.

As you said, this free agency class isn’t that great, so unless there is a clear-cut guy who can go in and potentially win a starting job, I don’t see him overspending too much, but he could look to acquire talent via trade. One name to keep an eye on is Trey Hendrickson, who was granted permission to seek a trade and has a connection with new defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo.

In the end, what I see Ballard doing, he’ll go a tad over his spending limit that he normally puts on players in free agency, and an aggressive approach in the draft. He’s not known for trading up but when you need players that can help you win now, I can see him not sitting back to land that talented developmental player he normally would take, and moving up for a player like Tyler Warren who can help elevate the offense.

Smayan:

I completely agree with what you’re saying.

Now, I want to move on to a different topic, and it’s honestly, extremely controversial.

Anthony Richardson.

Look, I was all in on Anthony Richardson these past 2 years, and he still deserves a chance this year. But, even if he’s only 22, I don’t believe in Anthony Richardson all that much anymore, and it’s not to say that he won’t turn it up, but if the Colts want to win fast, they’re going to need an improvement at QB. Anthony Richardson is last in the EPA+CPOE composite. The same is true in CPOE. He ranks a bit better in EPA/play, at 30th out of 44 qualified QBs.

There are a lot of good things about him, too, like the fact that he’s #1 in air yards, but he's mainly ranked pretty bad in these advanced statistics, and it’s not a joke.

Should the Colts get a quarterback in free agency this year? I would say yes. Sam Darnold is a damn good option, and if the Colts want to win, this is the course of direction I believe they should take. I’m probably wrong. Maybe Anthony Richardson is their guy. But, from what I’ve seen so far, if Chris Ballard wants a winning and playoff season, then it’s got to be Darnold time. If Chris Ballard doesn’t want to get fired, it’s time to pivot toward Darnold.

Their best option to get a good return on Richardson was from the Raiders, who pivoted towards Geno Smith. Now, they still have a shot at a good return, but it’s going to take more effort.

More than this, Chris Ballard has been steadily hinting at an Anthony Richardson trade and also said that he’ll have to compete for that starting quarterback job.

I want to know your thoughts, Cody. What do you think?

Cody:

The Colts should sign a quarterback in free agency but I don’t think it will or should be Sam Darnold. It sounds like Darnold is seeking at least a three-year contract and I don’t see Jim Irsay allowing Ballard to sign a quarterback to that type of deal when the franchise could have a reset year in 2026 if this upcoming season doesn’t end in a playoff run. Especially when you consider that Arch Manning will be entering the league in a year or two.

The way they should go is to sign Justin Fields or Daniel Jones to a one-year contract. Both players have a similar skillset to Anthony Richardson so if AR doesn’t win the starting job or if he once again gets hurt, Shane Steichen can keep his offensive scheme intact and won’t have to make major changes to his approach like he had to do with Gardner Minshew and Joe Flacco.

I believe Ballard and Steichen are tied to the hip with AR, and deep down, they want him to win the job. On this past week’s episode of The Season with Peter Schrager, NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo mentioned that the Colts want a guy who can potentially help Richardson in addition to the interest he has heard that they have in Jones.

Let's say they end up signing Jones, if Richardson can’t beat him out then that gives you the answer on if he is the guy or not, and gives the team a quarterback with experience that can still give you a potential playoff run.

One last thing on why I don’t see Indianapolis moving on from AR this offseason is that NFL Network’s Cameron Wolfe reported a couple of weeks ago in the exit meetings, they told Richardson that they have to do a better job supporting him.

As I mentioned with Tyler Warren, one way they can help him is by getting better weapons in the tight end room to elevate the passing attack. There is a report that the Eagles could potentially trade Dallas Goedert.

As an Eagles fan, do you believe he has some gas in the tank? Could he be a safety valve for Richardson or whoever ends up being the starting quarterback?

Smayan:

The Colts will be picking #14 in the draft, and with Tyler Warren considered a top-10 pick, I don’t think they’re going to get him, so it’s great that you mentioned Dallas Goedert because the Eagles really need to replace him. He’s very injury-prone, but when he’s on the field, he contributes big time.

If AR needs a safety valve, when Dallas Goedert’s on the field, he’s going to be incredibly useful. When he’s not on the field, things are going to suck. I have a feeling that the Colts and the Eagles are going to make a swap for that pick because the Colts need a tight-end like Goedert, even if he’s very injury-prone. With the 32nd pick in the draft, or maybe with the 14th if the Eagles decide to trade up, the focus is going to be on getting someone like Tyler Warren or even Colston Loveland if he falls that much.

So, to answer your question, yes, I do think he has some gas in the tank, and he’ll be incredibly valuable for Richardson if a trade happens. Plus, Steichen has worked with Goedert. That’s a good relationship right there.

Continuing on, who/what do you think is going to be on the trade market for the Colts this offseason, Cody? Jonathan Taylor? That first-round pick? DeForest Buckner?

If anything, I think that first-round pick the Colts have is going to be up for sale, even with Chris Ballard’s principles. It’s not the greatest position to be in, but the 14th pick is still pretty damn good.

What do you think about the article so far? Leave a comment below and share your thoughts!

Cody:

I don’t think there would be much movement from the Colts trading away any of their talent. Especially ahead of a season where the front office and the coaching staff’s jobs are on the line. If they were to move on from players, the two I can potentially see are Braden Smith and Kwity Paye.

Each is entering the last year of their contract and I don’t see either getting a contract extension but it would take a couple of things for that to happen. For Smith, it would be re-signing WIll Fries for the right guard spot which would take up money so Ballard could look to trade or cut Smith which would create $16.75M in cap space.

Paye’s circumstances would be dependent on them upgrading the position via free agency or a trade. They could include Paye in a trade for Trey Hendrickson.

As far as the #14 pick, unless it is needed to land an elite player, I don’t see Ballard moving it. I see him wanting to keep it so he can potentially move up into the Top 10 to land a player who can help the team win now.

As far as potential players that could be on the trade block, are their any that you think the Colts should target?

Smayan:

The trade block is pretty interesting because Davante Adams was just moved to the Los Angeles Rams, Geno Smith was just traded to the Raiders, and the Steelers just acquired DK Metcalf. More than that, Myles Garrett resigned with the Browns.

Like I said above, I do think the Colts should go for Dallas Goedert because he's in his prime years now, even if he's injury-prone. Another guy they should go for is Cooper Kupp, who, while they don't need him, can definitely bolster this offense.

Some guys they should target are Trey Hendrickson and Greg Newsome II. Don’t forget about Martin Emerson Jr. and Tyrann Mathieu. All of these guys/options are targeting the Colts’ biggest weaknesses.

1. Cornerback

2. Safety

3. Tight End

Free agency is a great story, though. Put yourself in Ballard’s seat. Who would you target?

Cody:

Well, let’s start with the needs on the offense. As we have talked about, the Colts need weapons at tight end, and unless they re-sign Mo Alie-Cox and/or Kylen Granson, most of the snaps at the position will be vacated. I think the smart approach would be to draft one and sign on a cheap deal like Juwann Johnson. I am not opposed to a trade for Dallas Goedert as well.

If Will Fries doesn’t get re-signed then they will need a new starting guard. A veteran like Shaq Mason or Brandon Scherff should be considered.

For the defense, the splash move would be Trey Hendrickson as mentioned but should consider depth options in Dante Fowler Jr. and Emmanuel Ogbah with Dayo Odeyingbo expected to sign elsewhere on a big contract.

It will be interesting to see if they elect to re-sign E.J. Speed because there aren’t great options with so many linebackers re-signing this weekend so I wouldn’t be surprised if he is brought back.

For the secondary, I am all for acquiring Jaire Alexander. They need a top cornerback with his talent on the boundary. At safety, I would be looking at Jevon Holland and Cam Bynum to fulfill that need.

Smayan:

Interesting 🤔.

The Colts are going to be a very interesting team to watch this offseason. There are a lot of ways this team can go. For one, they could get a tight end and try to shore up some good options for Anthony Richardson, but then again, they could also go and get a quarterback like Justin Fields or Daniel Jones and then improve that CB room. They could trade, they could draft.

But one thing is certain.

Chris Ballard is on the hot seat. It's the same with Shane Steichen. If he doesn't pull the good moves. If he doesn't come out of his so-called principles, he's getting fired. He's gone. He needs to make the team better. They need to make the playoffs.

Conclusion:

And that concludes our first Sports Summit piece.

Thanks a lot for joining me, Cody, and I had a lot of fun doing this with you. I would love to do this again!

And as always, thanks, guys, for tuning into this one. Put your thoughts down below in the comments, and like this post to support both Cody and I. We put a lot of effort into this one, folks, so that one like and comment (hate or not) gives us a sense of pride that our words were put out there.

Be sure to follow Cody on X at @CodyTalksNFL and check out his pieces at Sporting News. Subscribe to Sports Square, too, for awesome pieces like this one!

The next Sports Summit post is coming very soon!

Also, if you’re interested in submitting a question for the mailbag, be sure to subscribe, then go to the Sports Square subscriber chat to enter the question! Thanks!