On paper, the AFC North is the best division this year1. But that’s on paper, so which division is actually the best one this season? That’s what you’ll find out.
Football is back, people! It’s been 214 days since we last had an actual competitive football game, and it’s about time!
The first game of the season is tonight at 8:20 PM EST, and it’s a Super Bowl LX rematch. The Seahawks are up against the Patriots, and if you forgot how that one ended, let me refresh you.
Seattle's defense strip-sacked Drake Maye, picked him off twice in the fourth quarter, and rode 135 yards and a Super Bowl MVP trophy from Kenneth Walker III to a 29-13 win that was honestly not as close as the score even says. New England didn't sniff Seattle territory. Literally exactly what the whole “defense wins championships” mnemonic suggests.
Oftentimes throughout the season, we read stuff like, “The NFC North is the strongest division in the league,” or “The AFC South is the worst thing I’ve ever seen in my life.” So, I thought the perfect way to start off the year would be to rank these divisions.
I took every division, all 4 teams in it, and built one combined "All-Division Team" out of the best players currently on those rosters. Then I seeded all 8 of these Frankenstein super-teams into a bracket and simulated who'd actually win the whole thing.
Let’s start!
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AFC East:
QB: Josh Allen (Bills)
RB: James Cook (Bills)
WR1: AJ Brown (Patriots)
WR2: Garrett Wilson (Jets)
TE: Dalton Kincaid (Bills)
EDGE: Greg Rousseau (Bills)
CB: Christian Gonzalez (Patriots)
S: Minkah Fitzpatrick (Jets)
I might prefer Maye over Allen in general, but Allen is still the better player here skill-wise; Maye isn't too far off. The Patriots locking in AJ Brown is awesome, and James Cook is one of the best running backs in the game right now. Offensively, this team is very strong. The defense is weaker, no doubt, but definitely has studs here like Christian Gonzalez.
Slots in at the #7 seed.
AFC North:
QB: Lamar Jackson (Ravens)
RB: Chase Brown (Bengals)
WR1: Ja'Marr Chase (Bengals)
WR2: DK Metcalf (Steelers)
TE: Mark Andrews (Ravens)
EDGE: T.J. Watt (Steelers)
CB: Marlon Humphrey (Ravens)
S: Kyle Hamilton (Ravens)
On paper, this division is pretty much the strongest. I mean, think about it. You have one of the best QBs in the game, plus 2 game-changing wide receivers, and a plus point in Chase Brown in the backfield. Then, you've got TJ Watt, Kyle Hamilton, and Humphrey on defense. Plus, I'm excluding guys like Roquan Smith, Trey Hendrickson, and so much more on the defensive side of the ball. Now, I say that on paper for a reason. Injuries always seem to find this division first; Lamar's missed time two years running and Burrow's already banged up again, so paper strength doesn't always survive January.
The 2 seed, and honestly the best roster on this whole list if you’re just counting talent.
AFC South:
QB: Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars)
RB: Jonathan Taylor (Colts)
WR1: Nico Collins (Texans)
WR2: Alec Pierce (Colts)
TE: Tyler Warren (Colts)
EDGE: Will Anderson Jr. (Texans)
CB: Derek Stingley Jr. (Texans)
S: Jalen Pitre (Texans)
The defense on this team is unreal. Will Anderson, Stingley, not to mention Josh Hines-Allen, Pitre, and Bullock. Defensively, this division is absolutely loaded. Offensively, at least, compared to all the other divisions, this team lacks a little bit. Jonathan Taylor is still awesome in the backfield.
Lands at the 5 seed on the strength of that defense alone (I mean, isn’t that what the Texans do every year?).
AFC West:
QB: Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs)
RB: Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs)
WR1: Courtland Sutton (Broncos)
WR2: Jaylen Waddle (Broncos)
TE: Brock Bowers (Raiders)
EDGE: Khalil Mack (Chargers)
CB: Patrick Surtain II (Broncos)
S: Talanoa Hufanga (Broncos)
Man, another crazy team. Offensively, you got the Super Bowl MVP and two wide receivers that I believe are going to have some of the greatest seasons ever seen this year, plus one of the league's best TE's. But it doesn't stop there. On the defensive side, you got one of the best corners in football in Surtain, plus Mack and Hufanga. The main flaw for this roster would be at the QB position with Mahomes. Mahomes is coming off an ACL injury, and he's jumping right back into Week 1. If Mahomes balls out like he usually does, this is no doubt the best team offensively. However, that's uncertain right now.
Grabs the 6 seed, with the ceiling to be higher if Mahomes is really back.
NFC East:
QB: Jalen Hurts (Eagles)
RB: Saquon Barkley (Eagles)
WR1: CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys)
WR2: DeVonta Smith (Eagles)
TE: Dallas Goedert (Eagles)
EDGE: Donovan Ezeiruaku (Cowboys)
CB: Quinyon Mitchell (Eagles)
S: Cooper DeJean (Eagles)
This is basically the Eagles with CeeDee Lamb bolted on, and that's not a bad thing at all. Barkley behind that Eagles line is still one of the scariest run games in football, and Mitchell and DeJean give you two of the best young DBs in the league in one secondary. My one gripe is the pass rush. Ezeiruaku's a name to watch, but he's not a proven guy yet, and outside of Jalen Carter up front, who doesn't even fit on this list, there's no real difference-maker getting after the quarterback here.
Comes in at the 4 seed.
NFC North:
QB: Jared Goff (Lions)
RB: Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions)
WR1: Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions)
WR2: Justin Jefferson (Vikings)
TE: Colston Loveland (Bears)
EDGE: Aidan Hutchinson (Lions)
CB: Terrion Arnold (Lions)
S: Brian Branch (Lions)
I mean, just look at this team. Hutchinson led the entire NFL in pressures last year. Gibbs and St. Brown give you an offense that doesn't need to chuck the ball 40 times a game to win, and Jefferson is still Jefferson no matter what jersey he's wearing. Add in Micah Parsons, who I couldn't even fit on this list because the Lions already had Hutchinson locked in at EDGE, and you've got a division that is just so deep.
The 3 seed, and the deepest team in the field, top to bottom.
NFC South:
QB: Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers)
RB: Bijan Robinson (Falcons)
WR1: Chris Godwin (Buccaneers)
WR2: Drake London (Falcons)
TE: Cade Otton (Buccaneers)
EDGE: Jaelan Phillips (Panthers)
CB: Zyon McCollum (Buccaneers)
S: Jessie Bates III (Falcons)
I'll be honest, this is the weakest team of the 8. Bijan and London are legit stars, and Mayfield's had a real career renaissance in Tampa, but after that the star power drops off fast. Jessie Bates is a genuine ballhawk at safety, but this defense doesn't have a single edge rusher that scares me the way Watt or Garrett or Hutchinson does. Good skill players, shaky roster around them.
The 8 seed, and the clear weakest of the eight.
NFC West:
QB: Matthew Stafford (Rams)
RB: Christian McCaffrey (49ers)
WR1: Puka Nacua (Rams)
WR2: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks)
TE: Trey McBride (49ers)
EDGE: Myles Garrett (Rams)
CB: Devon Witherspoon (Seahawks)
S: Nick Emmanwori (Seahawks)
I’ve been calling a lot of divisions and their teams unreal here, but I’ve most definitely saved the absolute best for last. This might not be fair to the rest of the league, honestly. The reigning MVP at QB, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year rushing off the edge after getting traded to the Rams this offseason, and the entire back end of the defense that just won the Super Bowl. McCaffrey and McBride give this offense a floor that nobody else in this bracket can match either. AND GUESS WHAT, AARON DONALD IS BACK.
Your 1 seed.
Seeded by total roster talent:
NFC West vs 8. NFC South
AFC North vs 7. AFC East
NFC North vs 6. AFC West
NFC East vs 5. AFC South
Divisional Round:
NFC West over NFC South, easily. Garrett wrecks a shaky offensive line, Witherspoon and Emmanwori take away Godwin and London, and Stafford picks apart a defense with no real edge threat.
AFC North over AFC East. Chase and Metcalf against a secondary that’s already the acknowledged weak spot of that whole roster isn’t close, and Watt and Humphrey get home plenty against a Bills line that’s getting called out around the league too.
NFC North over AFC West. This is the Mahomes injury coming back to bite them. Hutchinson gets home enough against a QB who isn’t 100 percent, and Gibbs plus St. Brown do enough on the other side.
NFC East over AFC South. The closest one of the round. Houston’s secondary gives Hurts problems early, but Barkley wears the front down, and Mitchell and DeJean take away Collins. CeeDee does a lot here for the NFC East, and they grind it out late to take the win.
Conference Championships:
NFC West over AFC North. The best matchup in the whole bracket. Lamar’s legs make him a nightmare, but Garrett doesn’t need many reps to change a game, and Witherspoon locking up Chase is the difference. Stafford’s been here before on the big stage, and CMC and McBride give this offense something that the AFC North defense can’t match over 4 quarters.
NFC North over NFC East. Hutchinson rushing the passer for 4 straight quarters is just too much for Hurts to deal with, and Jefferson plus St. Brown edge out Lamb and Smith by quite a bit. Barkley keeps it from getting away early, but NFC North wins it late.
Super Division Bowl:
NFC West over NFC North.
Garrett and Aaron Donald are a different kind of problem than Hutchinson and Parsons, although this is quite a good matchup, and Witherspoon and Emmanwori have already spent a whole postseason run proving they can lock down exactly this kind of offense. Just so you know, this secondary has to go up against Nacua and JSN. I mean, can any secondary beat that?
The NFC West wins the All-Division Super Bowl.
So is the AFC North getting robbed? Nah. Best roster on paper, sure. But paper doesn’t play in January, and that division never makes it there healthy anyway. The NFC West doesn’t have a hole for a bracket to find. That’s the whole thing.
Do y’all agree, or do you have another division in mind? Let me know.
Yea guys. I know what’s happening in the NFC West. I wonder how many of you are seeing this footnote right now 😂
I’m surprised you took Ezeiruaku as the NFCEast top edge rusher.
Brian Burns? Jonathan Greenard? Abdul Carter?
McBride of the 49ers??