The World Cup Starts Today. You Don't Need to Know Soccer to Care.
A complete guide to the next 39 days. For the fan who's never watched a single minute of it
The World Cup is here.
104 games. 48 countries. 39 days. And the most wide-open tournament in recent memory. There is no runaway favorite, and there’s more chaos built into the format than ever before, and at least a dozen teams that could legitimately win the whole thing.
If you’re new to this: welcome. We wrote this for you, too. You don’t need to know anything coming in. Just know that what starts today is the biggest recurring sporting event on the planet, and for the next five weeks, it’s basically living in US sports venues you already know.
If you’ve been watching, you already know. Let’s get into it. All of my predictions and analyses are below.
Format
48 teams. 12 groups. Three host countries.
This is the first World Cup ever played with 48 teams, which is up from 32 in 2022. They’re split into 12 groups of four. The top two in each group advance automatically. Then the eight best third-place finishers also move on, giving you 32 teams in the Round of 32. From there, it’s a straight knockout until someone lifts the trophy on July 19 at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey.
Games are being played across 16 cities. 11 in the US, 3 in Mexico, 2 in Canada. SoFi Stadium. AT&T Stadium. Levi’s. Hard Rock. MetLife. Just to name a few. Yes, these are the NFL buildings.
Everything airs on FOX and FS1. Some games are free on Tubi, including today’s opener (Mexico vs South Africa) and the USA’s first match (USA vs Paraguay).
The Groups & Some Light Analysis
Here are all 12, with some basic analysis on each one:
Group A: Mexico, South Korea, South Africa, Czechia
Mexico is at home, playing in front of their home crowd. The Azteca will be rocking. South Korea has enough talent to steal second. South Africa, making their first appearance since 2010, is a great story.
Group B: Canada, Switzerland, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Qatar
This is most definitely Canada’s best squad ever. Jonathan David up front, Alphonso Davies on the wing, and with the home crowd behind them, they’re surely advancing. Switzerland is quietly one of the most dangerous knockout-stage teams in the world.
Group C: Brazil, Morocco, Scotland, Haiti
The group everyone’s watching. Brazil under Carlo Ancelotti in his first tournament, and they have Vinicius Jr., Raphinha, and elite talent everywhere. Morocco is a legitimate dark horse pick after their 2022 semifinal run. Scotland, making its first World Cup appearance since 1998, and Haiti, making its first World Cup appearance since 1974, are speed bumps.
Group D: USA, Australia, Paraguay, Türkiye
The US group. This is winnable. Paraguay is the biggest threat. Türkiye is unpredictable but beatable. Australia made the last-16 in 2022. This is the group where the USMNT earns its place. However, don’t be surprised if the US doesn’t advance. The U.S. has struggled under Mauricio Pochettino, losing both games of the Concacaf Nations League last year and falling short in spring friendlies against Belgium and Portugal.
Group E: Germany, Ivory Coast, Ecuador, Curaçao
Germany in a weak group is dangerous. They’re not the 2014 juggernaut anymore, but they’re still Germany. Ivory Coast has real quality. Ecuador is solid. Curaçao, the smallest country to ever qualify for the World Cup and in its first World Cup ever, just wants to compete.
Group F: Netherlands, Japan, Sweden/Ukraine, Tunisia
The Netherlands has a deep squad, but they’ve burned us before. Japan is genuinely one of the best-organized teams in the world. Don’t sleep on them. Sweden went winless in its first six qualifiers.
Group G: Belgium, Egypt, Iran, New Zealand
Belgium’s golden generation is aging out, but they’re still the class here. Egypt has Mo Salah. That one game is worth watching. Egypt has lots of experience on its roster from across the Premier League, Ligue 1, and La Liga as they hope to get out of the group stage.
Group H: Spain, Uruguay, Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia
Spain is the favorite to win the whole thing, and this group is basically a bye. Lamine Yamal, at 18 years old, is a must-watch. Uruguay has Luis Suarez and Darwin Nunez and enough fight to steal second. This is Cape Verde's first World Cup. Saudi Arabia made their World Cup debut in the US in 1994, and they’re back again in 2026.
Group I: France, Senegal, Norway, Iraq
The hardest group in the tournament. France are co-favorites. Norway has Erling Haaland, who is an absolute cheat code. Senegal is physically imposing and tactically disciplined. Iraq is the wild card. Something dramatic will happen here.
Group J: Argentina, Algeria, Austria, Jordan
In Messi’s record-tying sixth and most likely final World Cup, Argentina has a very good chance to take this group. This is still a stacked squad defending its title. Algeria could push Austria for second. Both teams will push Argentina. Jordan is another team that is making its first World Cup appearance.
Group K: Portugal, Colombia, DR Congo, Uzbekistan
Portugal has Ronaldo, who is also probably in his last World Cup, plus a young squad that’s arguably better without leaning on him. Colombia has Luis Diaz, James Rodriguez, and genuine title-contender talent. For DR Congo to advance, they’re going to need to have some good solidity at the back. Uzbekistan is developing, but they’re not there quite yet.
Group L: England, Croatia, Ghana, Panama
England vs. Croatia. Again. 2018 semifinal. 2022 group stage. Now, in 2026, in the same group again. England should win it, but it’s going to be tough. Harry Kane needs a tournament moment.
The Real Contenders
Spain (+450 to win) — The favorite, and they earned it. Reigning European champions. Lamine Yamal is 18 years old and already the best player in the world at his position. Their midfield is suffocating. Their group is easy. If they stay healthy, they are winning six of their seven games.
France (+500) — Kylian Mbappe already has 12 World Cup goals in two tournaments. He’s 27. This might be the year he takes over a tournament the way Messi did in 2022. The squad around him is deep. Their group is brutal, but they should survive it.
England (+650) — They’ve never won anything in 60 years. They always find a way to flame out. And yet, this squad is genuinely good. Harry Kane, Jude Bellingham, Bukayo Saka. The coach has tournament experience now. This is either the year they finally do it, or the year they find a new, creative way to lose.
Brazil (+850) — Carlo Ancelotti takes over a team that hasn’t won a World Cup since 2002. Vinicius Jr. is one of the best players on the planet. Raphinha. Rodrygo. The talent is there. The question is whether Ancelotti, elite at the club level, can build unity in the limited time international managers get. Group C is the most interesting early test.
Argentina (+1000) — Don’t let the odds fool you. Defending champions. Most of the 2022 core is still here. Messi at 38 isn’t the same player he was, and at this point, he might not start every game. But Lautaro Martinez is one of the best strikers in the world, and the squad can function without leaning on him every minute. The pressure is off them. That might make them more dangerous.
Portugal (+850) — This is genuinely Ronaldo’s last one. He’s 41. He’s not going to be the player he was, but he’s still Cristiano Ronaldo at a World Cup. The team around him, Bernardo Silva, Bruno Fernandes, and Diogo Dalot, is arguably their best generation since 2016. Group K is hard but winnable.
The Dark Horses
Norway (+3300) — Erling Haaland. Full stop. He’s never played a World Cup game before. He’s coming off back-to-back Premier League seasons at an insane level. Norway has Martin Odegaard, Alexander Sorloth, and a team built around giving Haaland chances. They’re in Group I with France and Senegal, which means they’ll be tested early. If they survive that group, nobody wants to play them.
Morocco (+2500) — They made the semifinals in 2022 as a 200-1 longshot. They know how to do this. Five clean sheets in the 2025 AFCON. Achraf Hakimi is the superstar. A defensive structure that makes you work for everything. They’re in Group C with Brazil. If they finish second there, they’re a genuine quarterfinal threat.
Colombia (+1600) — James Rodriguez. Luis Diaz. Falcao’s gone, but the next generation is here. They have the attacking talent to beat anyone on a given day, and they qualified comfortably. If they get through their group, they are dangerous.
Japan (+2700) — Tactically, the most disciplined team in the tournament that isn’t a traditional European power. They’ve beaten Germany and Spain in the same group at the last World Cup. They’ll do something wild again. Guarantee it.
Predictions:
Who goes out in the group stage that shouldn’t: Belgium. Too much ego, not enough unity anymore. Mo Salah’s Egypt steals their spot.
Biggest upset of the tournament: Norway beats France in Group I. Haaland scores twice. The internet loses its mind.
Dark horse semifinalist: Morocco. They’ve done it before, and their setup is built for tournaments.
Golden Boot: Kylian Mbappe. He has 12 World Cup goals already, and France potentially plays seven games. The math works.
Final Four: Spain, France, Norway, Argentina.
Final: Norway vs. France. The cheat code vs. the machine.
Champion: Norway. Yeah, we said it. Haaland, at 25, in his first-ever World Cup, has something to prove. They went 8-for-8 in qualifying and beat Italy home and away. Odegaard just won the Premier League. Nobody wants to play them in a knockout game. The group is brutal, but if they get through it, and I think they do, every team left in this bracket has a reason to be scared. Someone always comes out of nowhere. This year it’s Norway.
The “Watch These Games” Calendar
You don’t have to watch everything. Here are a couple of group stage games worth clearing your schedule for:
June 11 — TODAY: Mexico vs. South Africa, 3 PM ET (FOX/Tubi — free)
The tournament opener. Estadio Azteca. 87,000 fans. Mexico is on home soil for the first time since 1986. South Africa is making their first appearance since 2010, when it hosted it. The atmosphere alone is worth tuning in for.
June 12: USA vs. Paraguay, 9 PM ET (FOX/Tubi — free)
Home opener at SoFi Stadium. Paraguay beat Uruguay and Mexico last year and only narrowly lost to Morocco in March. The US cannot sleep on this one, and neither can you. Free to watch. No excuses.
June 13: Brazil vs. Morocco, 6 PM ET (FS1)
Tournament favorite vs. the team that made the semis in 2022 as a 200-1 longshot. MetLife Stadium in New Jersey. Brazil hasn’t made a semifinal in two decades. Morocco has. Something has to give.
June 14: Germany vs. Curaçao, 1 PM ET (FOX)
The smallest nation ever in a World Cup. Playing Germany.
June 14: Netherlands vs. Japan, 4 PM ET (FOX)
Group F might be the hardest to call in the whole bracket. These two meet in the first weekend, and it could effectively decide who tops the group. AT&T Stadium in Dallas. Both teams are capable of beating anyone.
June 17: England vs. Croatia, 4 PM ET (FOX)
England hasn’t recovered from 2018 when Croatia knocked them out of the semis. Now they’re in the same group again. AT&T Stadium. Croatia is older but still dangerous. England fans have been waiting eight years for this one.
June 24: Canada vs. Switzerland, 3 PM ET
Both teams should be 2-0 by this point. Both meet in Vancouver, Canada’s home crowd. Switzerland is the heavy favorite in Group B, but Canada at home in a winner-take-all situation is not a team you want to face. It could be the upset of the group stage.
June 25: Germany vs. Ecuador, 4 PM ET
Final group stage game for Group E. Both teams are expected to be alive at this point, and it’ll effectively be a knockout match. MetLife Stadium. Ecuador has emerged as a genuine dark horse. Germany needs to prove they’re back.
June 26: Norway vs. France, 3 PM ET (FOX)
Mbappe vs. Haaland. Les Bleus vs. the Vikings. World Cup favorites vs. the most dangerous dark horse in the tournament. Gillette Stadium in Boston. This is the game of the group stage. It’s probably for the top spot. We already told you who we think wins.
June 26: Spain vs. Uruguay, 8 PM ET
Spain should be 2-0 and cruise. Uruguay should be 2-0 and cruise. Neither team will have been tested. Now they play each other in Guadalajara. Uruguay has nothing to lose, and that makes it extremely dangerous.
June 27: Colombia vs. Portugal, 7:30 PM ET
Ronaldo’s last World Cup. James Rodriguez on the other side. Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. Both teams will likely be through already, but neither will want to lose top spot heading into the knockouts. Watch for the individual brilliance on both sides.
One Last Thing Before We Kick Off.
I’ll be away from Sports Square from June 15 through June 29. No original coverage from me during that stretch, but that doesn’t mean you’ll be left hanging. Every day, I’ll be reading and crossposting the best World Cup content I come across so your feed stays full of great stuff to read while the tournament is in full swing.
The moment I’m back on June 30, we are going full send. We’re talking 2x-3x the usual output. We’ll be doing game breakdowns, hot takes, bracket reactions, all of it. Everything you’d expect from this newsletter and then some.
For all of our readers expecting normal US sports programming, don’t worry! Throughout the World Cup, I will still be sending out many hockey, basketball, and baseball pieces.
Since this post is now live, a dedicated section for the FIFA World Cup is now available on the website at sportssquarenews.com. For those interested in a specific country, a country directory will also be on that page (hopefully completed by 11:59 PM ET on Thursday). You will be able to click the intended country and see all articles linked to it.
Until then, I’ve got you covered through Saturday. Enjoy the World Cup. It’s going to be a wild one.
Great stuff as usual.
Don’t sleep on Mexico. Gilberto Mora is 17, but has elite talent. They are also playing at home and Mexican fans are passionate. Those fans can will their team to victory.
My mom is full Belgian and still has family there. I have a major soft spot for the Red Devils. However, you are spot on. Their chance to win has passed. They’ll finish second in the group stage and lose quickly in the knockouts.
I might be crazy, but I have a feeling about the US. It’s our 250th, playing at home, and there is talent on the roster. The question will be can they hold their own against the elite teams?