The Numbers Don’t Lie: Who Really Has the Edge in the 2025 MLB Division Series?
NLDS and ALDS matchups broken down by offense, pitching, defense, and October experience. Edition #300
8 teams remain.
The Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee Brewers, Detroit Tigers, New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies, Toronto Blue Jays, and Seattle Mariners will take the field tomorrow, trying to clinch game 1 of a 5-game divisional round series.
Each of these teams has players coming from different backgrounds. They have different management. Teams that are willing to spend a lot of money, and other teams that have built their whole playoff run from the farm system.
The Wild Card round was a nostalgia edition. This one is going to be statistical. We’re going to go matchup by matchup, and we’re going to dig deep into stats.
Let’s go!
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NLDS: (4) Chicago Cubs vs (1) Milwaukee Brewers
The Cubs won the season series between the teams, 7-6, but this Cubs team struggled the last 2 months of the season. They battled their way into the NLDS, taking the series against the Padres. The Brewers enter the NLDS with the best record in franchise history, which earned them the #1 seed.
Offense: Both clubs scored at a high clip. Chicago averaged 4.90 runs/game (3rd in NL) to Milwaukee’s 4.98 (2nd NL). The Cubs leaned on power – they hit 223 HR (3rd NL) compared to 166 by Milwaukee – and Chicago also excelled on the basepaths (82.1% SB success, 2nd NL). Milwaukee’s lineup piled up hits and walks (MLB’s highest OBP .332), while Chicago posted a slightly higher AVG (.249 vs .258).
Pitching & Defense: Milwaukee’s staff was one of the league’s best run-preventers, with a 3.59 ERA (best in NL) vs Chicago’s 3.81. The Brewers led the NL in strikeouts (8.9 K/9) and did a great job limiting homers (23.3 HR/200 IP, 4th NL). Chicago’s pitchers seldom walked hitters (fewest BB/9 in NL) but also struck out less. Defensively, the Cubs turned everything into outs (.719 defensive efficiency, NL-best) vs .709 for Milwaukee.
Outlook: Milwaukee’s depth and elite bullpen look strong on paper, while Chicago’s power and speed can force high-scoring games. The series could hinge on whether Chicago’s bats can overcome Milwaukee’s stingy run prevention or whether the Brewers’ chances rest on shut-down relief and a repeat of their 2023 dominance.
Now, as someone who picked the Padres over the Cubs as a sweep here, you would think I would take the Brewers here. I’ve changed my mind about this team after watching them in the wild card. Give me the Cubs in 4. This year’s #1 seed in the Brewers is going to be a bust.
NLDS: (3) Los Angeles Dodgers vs (2) Philadelphia Phillies
Let’s be very real here. Aside from that 8th inning on Tuesday, the Dodgers looked like a very complete team, though that could all change in this series versus the Phillies. The bullpen is still weak, no matter what angle you look at it from, and the Phillies can easily take advantage of that. Trea Turner is now completely healed up and ready to go after the bye week
Offense: Los Angeles averaged 5.09 runs/game (NL’s highest) versus Philadelphia’s 4.80 (5th NL). The Dodgers led in power: 244 homers (1st NL) to Philly’s 212 (5th NL), buoyed by Shohei Ohtani’s 55 and Freddie Freeman/Mookie Betts’ contributions. The Phillies racked up plenty of hits (team AVG .258, 1st NL) and rarely made outs, but the Dodgers’ slugging (.441 NL-best) gave them a big edge. Notably, Phillies’ Kyle Schwarber (56 HR) and Ohtani (55) ranked first and second in NL home runs.
Pitching & Defense: The two staffs were similarly formidable. L.A.’s ERA was 3.95 (8th NL) to Philly’s 3.79 (4th NL). The Dodgers struck out the most batters in MLB (9.4 K/9, 1st NL), while the Phillies walked the fewest (2.7 BB/9, 2nd NL). Both limited long balls effectively. The Dodgers turned balls into outs at a .704 rate (6th NL) compared to Philly’s .691 (10th NL).
Outlook: Both teams pack offense and experience. Los Angeles boasts four World Series runs and stars like Ohtani and Betts, while Philadelphia has veterans like Schwarber, Bryce Harper, and Castellanos (WS champ 2016). The lineups’ power likely means low pitches in games; this could come down to pitching matchups and whether Philadelphia’s knack for limiting walks can neutralize the Dodgers’ slugging.
Give me the Dodgers in 5. No bias here, but if the offense can find a way to lock in, the Dodgers can win it even with the weak bullpen. We saw that in the Reds series. However, the Phillies have the arms to close out the game when it matters. The bullpen can swing the series either way.
ALDS: (1) Toronto Blue Jays vs (4) New York Yankees
The Yankees started their season hot, and they ended it hot, but they lost the division crown after an ugly June and July. They went through the wild card, being the first team since the reintroduction of the 3-game wild card to win the series after losing the first game. While the Yankees had the worst summer of their lives, the Blue Jays had the best summer of theirs, taking advantage of the Yankees’ miscues and surging. They won the tiebreaker, secured the #1 seed, and now meet each other in the postseason for the first time.
Offense: These AL East titans also nearly tied in runs. New York scored 5.24 R/G (top in AL) to Toronto’s 4.93 (2nd AL). The Yankees had an 83-HR advantage (274 vs 191) – powered by Aaron Judge’s 53 and other sluggers – and led the league in slugging (.455). Toronto countered with contact: they led MLB in batting average (.265) and on-base (.333) by putting the ball in play and working counts. However, the Yankees crushed more homers, opening larger inning leads.
Pitching & Defense: New York’s rotation (Taillon, etc.) combined for a 3.91 ERA (7th AL) vs Toronto’s 4.19 (10th AL). Both bullpens were roughly middle-of-the-pack. The Yanks led all teams with a 9.0 K/9 rate (2nd AL) vs Toronto’s 8.95 (3rd AL), meaning they chopped down on contact more. Toronto rarely walked batters (3.2 BB/9, 8th AL). In the field, New York turned 70.8% of batted balls into outs (2nd AL) to Toronto’s 70.0%, slightly sharpening their defense advantage.
Experience: New York’s roster is studded with postseason-tested stars (Judge, Stanton, Bellinger, Goldschmidt). Stanton is a known “clutch” October performer, and Judge has led a deep playoff run before. Toronto counters with George Springer (playing in his 8th postseason, 2017 World Series MVP) and veteran Giancarlo Stanton, but many Jays (Avisaíl García, Bo Bichette, etc.) have never won a playoff game. Yankees fans recall the 2017 championship, whereas the Blue Jays’ core (led by Springer) is eager for a breakthrough.
Look guys. I didn’t think either of these teams would be in this spot right now. I genuinely thought that the Red Sox were going to make a push for the World Series, and the A’s were going to compete at the start of the year. The Blue Jays were the surprise team this year. The Yankees were expected to be a playoff team.
After watching this Blue Jays team this past year, I think the Blue Jays are going to compete and win this easily. The Yankees are riding it good, and have tons of playoff experience, but contact is going to be key in this series, and that’s what the Blue Jays are good at. The Blue Jays also won more games against the Yankees this season. Give me the Blue Jays in 5.
ALDS: (2) Seattle Mariners vs (3) Detroit Tigers
So, many people are probably surprised to see the Detroit Tigers here right now. Especially if you only followed the second half of the season. They had an enormous lead in the division and lost it all, securing a wild card and somehow beating the Cleveland Guardians, the team that had the most momentum coming into the playoffs. The Mariners, on the other hand, have Cal Raleigh, the newest member of the 60-homerun club, and acquired Eugenio Suarez at the deadline, winning their first division title since 2001. The Mariners are very hot right now, giving them a first-round bye and home-field advantage. The Mariners and Tigers are meeting in the postseason for the first time in their history.
Offense: Seattle and Detroit were nearly dead even at 4.73 and 4.68 runs/game (4th and 5th in AL). The big split was power: the Mariners launched 238 homers (2nd AL) to Detroit’s 198 (5th AL). Seattle’s lineup (led by Cal Raleigh’s AL-record 60 HR) crushed balls for distance (.420 SLG) vs .413 for Detroit. Detroit did everything else well – it was one of the top teams in triples (36, AL-leading) – and both clubs had contact-heavy batting averages (.244 vs .247). The M’s stole bases at an AL-best rate (81.3% success) which kept rallies alive.
Pitching & Defense: The staffs were virtually identical: Seattle’s starters went 3.87 ERA, and Tigers’ 3.91. Both teams struck out around 8.8 batters per 9 (SEA 8.8, DET 8.6), and walks were low for each (SEA led MLB with just 2.8 BB/9). Home runs allowed and defensive efficiency were almost mirror images (.703 Seattle vs .702 Detroit). In short, games will likely be tight, with marginal edges in power (Seattle) versus aggressiveness (Detroit’s triples and aggressive baserunning).
Experience: Detroit’s roster has few big names, but Game 1 starter Tarik Skubal was dominant in the Wild Card (14 K in 7⅔ innings), giving Detroit a matchup weapon. Seattle countered with young stars (Julio Rodríguez, Julio, and All-Star catcher Cal Raleigh) but relatively little playoff seasoning. Neither club has a long modern playoff history, so inexperience may be a factor in pressure moments.
Finally, these are the teams that don’t have much playoff experience. At least, they’re facing each other and not facing a heavyweight. But both of these teams have been extremely successful this season, and even with some awesome series in the divisional round this year, this is going to be the best one out of them all. This is the matchup all of you baseball fans want to see.
Give me the Mariners in 4, and every single game is going to extra innings.
Each series features stylistic contrasts. Cubs–Brewers is a classic speed/power (Cubs) vs run-avoidance (Brewers) duel. Dodgers–Phillies is a slugfest of NL juggernauts – both lineups are potent, but L.A.’s edge in strikeouts and defense might counter Philly’s savvy batting approach. Yankees–Blue Jays pits the Bronx boppers against a contact-heavy Toronto squad; New York’s homers and playoff pedigree meet Toronto’s depth and an elite defense. Finally, Mariners–Tigers is incredibly even on paper; Seattle’s big bats (Cal Raleigh’s 60 HR) versus Detroit’s opportunism (league-leading triples) make for a tight ALDS.
It’s going to be a good slate of games, people, and it’s going to be extremely fun to watch.
Playoff Preview You Need To Read:
For all of you looking for even more depth and awesome articles to read, here are a couple I loved.
Just an awesome preview article from Skiing Moles Sports (can’t find the user profile). Very factual and gets you ready for all the matchups.
Loved this article by The Data Dugout and a great idea. I agree with every single one of these picks for wild card MVP.
Just an awesome article by Michael Hendricks looking into October Baseball. I mean, there’s nothing like it.
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I would LOVE to see Mariners - Blue Jays for the ALCS.