That’s how long Brazil has gone without lifting the World Cup. Five stars on that crest and the newest one is older than half the guys wearing it. By Saturday night, we will see if we will be talking about Brazil in a very different conversation. Because Brazil opens against Morocco, and in all honesty, this might be the most loaded “group stage opener” of the entire tournament.

Here’s the thing about Morocco though. They’re not the cute underdog story anymore. 2022 semifinalists. Only African team to go 8-for-8 in qualifying. Beat Brazil in a friendly back in 2023. Achraf Hakimi and Brahim Díaz aren’t here to lose graciously and get a nice writeup about “growing the game.”

Brazil is favored, sure, -145 on the moneyline, but Neymar is ruled out with a calf injury and that changes the entire shape of how Ancelotti’s group attacks. Vinícius and Raphinha (13 goals, 3 assists in La Liga this season, by the way) carry a lot of weight in this one. If Brazil stumbles here, against this Morocco, on Day 3? The “what’s wrong with this golden generation” pieces write themselves, and we’ll be reading them for two more weeks.

And here’s why the timing makes it worse for Brazil: the tournament just showed everyone what a statement looks like.

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USA 4-1 Paraguay. On U.S. soil, first time in three decades. Folarin Balogun scored twice, including a one-on-two finish to end the first half that you need to go watch right now if you haven’t. First USMNT brace at a World Cup since 1930. The guy chose USA over England and Nigeria back in 2023, his family was in the stands, and he just delivered the loudest possible answer to anyone questioning that decision. Gio Reyna capped it with a trivela in stoppage time. 63% possession, 17 shots to 8. That’s not a nervy opener, that’s a team that looked completely at home in a moment that size.

Compare that to Canada, who needed a goal from their bench to even get on the scoreboard. Jovo Lukić put Bosnia ahead off a corner in the first half, and Canada (without Alphonso Davies, their best player) spent most of the match chasing the game. Then Cyle Larin comes on, and 121 seconds, that’s it, 121 seconds later he’s spinning away from a deflected finish that ties it at 1-1. First-ever World Cup point for Canada. First time on home soil. The underlying numbers say they deserved it (1.25 xG to 0.98), but it still took a moment of bench magic to get there.

So that’s the gap we’re talking about heading into the weekend. One co-host looked like a contender from minute one. The other co-host had to dig for a point against a Bosnia side that didn’t even need to start Edin Dzeko. And now Brazil, the most decorated nation in World Cup history, steps into Saturday carrying the weight of a 24-year drought against a team that’s made a habit of embarrassing favorites.

Brazil-Morocco is the headline, but Saturday has layers. Qatar gets a redemption shot against Switzerland after going 0-3 as hosts in 2022, and Switzerland (Granit Xhaka still running the show, Breel Embolo waiting in behind) are the better side on paper but Qatar at a World Cup again is its own story regardless of result. Then Haiti and Scotland close the day, two countries with absurd gaps since their last appearances (1974 for Haiti, 1998 for Scotland) both needing this game to mean something for their group hopes.

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And right as Saturday ends, Day 4 sneaks in. Australia vs. Turkey opens Group D at midnight, the same group USA just blew the doors off of. Whoever wins that game already knows what’s waiting for them.

Two days in, and we’ve got a co-host breakthrough, a historic USMNT performance, and now the most storied program in World Cup history staring down its longest trophy drought against a team that genuinely believes it can ruin the party. Saturday’s going to be loud.

This moment doesn’t stand alone in the “key blunders by Victor” category. He missed two clutch free throws in Game 4, shot pi day (3/14) in the second half of that same game, and had 10 combined turnovers in Games 1 and 2. Combine that with unnecessarily physical fouls and lots of talking he wasn’t able to back up, and you have a surprisingly human series from the alien.

Key note: none of this is to rag on Wemby. I want to see him succeed. Badly. He’s overall had a great first playoff run with plenty of highlights. A 40-point, 20-rebound game, a record for playoff blocks in a game, and just being a two-way menace. He will always be a positive contributor on defense because most players don’t want to challenge him. Except Jose Alvarado, for some reason. That’s all to say: he can be the best player in the world, but right now he’s not there.

Not to get in his head, but against this tough Knicks defense, he has struggled mightily. The Knicks are doing a masterful job of restricting Victor’s easy paint touches and forcing him into self-creation buckets. A lot of the time, he’s settling for tough 3’s, which he’s missing. When he’s self-creating, he’s not putting that much pressure on the defense. He’s getting worn out quicker, getting more gassed, and that leads to key mistakes in the clutch. Less pressure also means harder shots and fewer chances to run up the score.

To simplify it further: when the man DOES get the ball in the post from a teammate, amazing things happen. It creates open shooters, driving lanes, and closeout opportunities. The only game San Antonio won? Wemby took 18 shots, only 4 of those being 3’s. He splashed 2 of them, but the other 14 shots came from inside the free throw line besides 1. Castle was lobbing him, he was getting clean layups, and when that wasn’t an option, he kicked it out for 6 assists. That led to a win.

Looking at the first half of Game 4, that same theme continued. Then, when the shooters started hitting, it looked like the game was over. So how did they lose Game 4? In the second half, there were 6 of 14 shots outside the paint, making 2. That number of outside attempts is inflated by his many, many failed tip-in attempts, but he was getting to the hole. Add in those missed clutch free throws, the Pi Day shooting line, and a game that ended with just 1 assist, and you’ve got the blueprint for a collapse.

Well, what about Fox doing his best JR Smith impression and Mitch Johnson’s coaching pitfalls? Those are real factors in losing the game, but to say Wemby is not at fault at all is just a lie. He wants that pressure, and he even says himself that he’s the one to take the blame. He’s putting a lot of this on himself, which we should all respect since he is the Spurs’ best player. When he’s playing well, his impact can break open the game. If that’s not happening, it just makes the game harder for everybody around him.

Being a leader in its most simple sense is both saying and doing. If you’re going to take the responsibility, it’s on you to play your best. Wemby has to make quick decisions, hunt mismatches, and use his size to his advantage in the paint. Some of that is coaching, some of that is how he wants to play that game. And that’s what can win San Antonio games. And if you’re going to say “I’m in your head” and play the KG mental warfare game (I don’t think Vic is talking about dead moms yet, though), you have to back that up. Don’t let your opponents make the biggest comeback in Finals history as you choke. Simple as that.

This is undoubtedly the toughest matchup Wembanyama has faced all postseason. Not only a revitalized Karl-Anthony Towns who plays... good defense?... but a strong wing group who can defend well like OG and Hart, who have kept him in check these 4 games.

Not to act as the great Kenny Atkinson here, but the San Antonio Spurs are down 1-3 when they could’ve just as easily been up 3-1. Box score-wise, Wemby is having a great series, but he’s not playing at his best. If he’s able to replicate his Game 3 and create those easy opportunities for his teammates, it gives them their best shot to come back.

None of that matters if his team lets him down this Saturday. And if the eggs New Yorkers threw at him actually got to his head.

Day 2 is different. Today, the spotlight shifts to the other two co-hosts, and both of them are walking into something MUCH deeper than what they’re thinking.

(FOR THOSE THAT DIDN’T WATCH THE GAMES FROM DAY 1, QUICK RECAP AT THE END OF THE ARTICLE.)

Canada has never won a World Cup game. Ever.

Canada is 0-6 across their appearances in 1986 and 2022. Zero wins. Six losses. That’s the entire history of Canadian men’s soccer at this tournament, and now they’re opening their first-ever home World Cup against Bosnia and Herzegovina at BMO Field in Toronto.

This is supposed to be a feel-good story. Home crowd, first-ever host nation appearance, and a golden opportunity to finally get on the board. This is genuinely a lifetime opportunity for Canada to score their first World Cup points.

But here’s why it isn’t. Alphonso Davies is officially ruled out. Jesse Marsch confirmed it himself. Davies is healing well from his hamstring injury but isn’t at 100 percent yet. Stephen Eustáquio will captain the side in his place, and Marsch says Davies should be ready by the second or third group game, but not today.

By the way, Davies isn’t just a soccer player for Canada. He’s the guy who scored Canada’s first-ever World Cup goal back in 2022. He’s Canada’s best player. And on the biggest day in Canadian soccer history. The day they finally get to host a men’s World Cup match on home soil, he’s going to be watching from the sideline.

Canada still has a fighting chance. Jonathan David, Tajon Buchanan, and Richie Laryea are still very good players. But this tournament just got way harder for them.

Either this team finds a way to shake off four decades of World Cup uselessness in front of their own fans, without their best player and without their captain... or “first home World Cup” turns into “still winless, and we didn’t even have Davies” by sundown.

Then there’s the other half of Day 2. USA vs. Paraguay at SoFi Stadium, and oh my god, this one's been building for months.

At a press conference back in March, the word “pressure” came up 16 times, and it wasn’t reporters asking about it. These were the players bringing it up themselves. The team has been framing the weight of hosting as a feature, not a problem. They’re acting cool and confident. But we’ve heard that before from teams that didn’t back it up.

Here’s an interesting stat. The USMNT has let up multiple goals in four straight matches and hasn’t kept a clean sheet since last September. That’s a pattern. Pochettino’s system has the fullbacks pushing high to win the ball in dangerous areas, and it’s produced goals, but it’s also left the defense exposed both times it’s been tested against real competition.

Now pair that with what Paraguay brings. Paraguay leans heavily on defensive structure, high work rate, and physicality rather than attacking dynamism, even with talented pieces like Almiron and Enciso in the squad. And remember, this is a team that stunned Argentina and Brazil on their way to qualifying. They show results against teams that are supposed to beat them.

If the USA comes out trying to press high and leaves gaps behind, against a Paraguay side built to sit, absorb, and pounce on mistakes? Well, say goodbye to all those hopes, Team USA.

History gives us both versions of how this goes for host nations. South Korea in 2002 rode home advantage all the way to the semifinals. South Africa in 2010 became the first host nation ever to be eliminated in the group stage.

Canada and the USA are both looking right down that path, but just from different angles. Canada needs anything. It could be a draw or even a single goal to start rewriting a history of nothing but losses, and now they have to do it without the one player who raises their ceiling more than anyone else. The USA needs to prove that a defense that’s been bleeding goals for nine months won’t get exposed on the biggest stage.

By tonight, we’ll know a lot more about which version of this World Cup the hosts are writing.

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Day 1 Recap:

Mexico beat South Africa 2-0, and South Korea came back from 0-1 down to beat Czechia 2-1. So Day 1 was wild, just not for the usual reasons.

Mexico took care of business at home, but oh my god, that game had everything except a clean scoreline. Julián Quiñones opened the scoring early off a sloppy South African giveaway, and Raúl Jiménez added his first-ever World Cup goal in the second half, an emotional moment for the 35-year-old. But the real story was the cards. South Africa had two players sent off (Sithole for denying a goal-scoring chance, Zwane for lashing out after a VAR review), and Mexico’s César Montes got a late red too. Three red cards in a World Cup opener, the most in tournament history. Mexico was the better team start to finish, but this one will be remembered for the chaos.

The nightcap in Guadalajara was the actual game of the day. South Korea and Czechia went into halftime scoreless despite Korea dominating the shot count, and then it got fun. Krejčí put Czechia ahead off a set piece, Korea answered almost immediately through Hwang In-beom, who cut inside and chipped a finish into the corner. Then, in the closing stretch, substitute Oh finished off a cross from Hwang to complete the comeback and give Korea a 2-1 win. Hwang walked away with a goal and an assist, joining a short list of Koreans to do that at a World Cup. A wild finish, and honestly, the better watch of the two Day 1 games.

104 games. 48 countries. 39 days. And the most wide-open tournament in recent memory. There is no runaway favorite, and there’s more chaos built into the format than ever before, and at least a dozen teams that could legitimately win the whole thing.

If you’re new to this: welcome. We wrote this for you, too. You don’t need to know anything coming in. Just know that what starts today is the biggest recurring sporting event on the planet, and for the next five weeks, it’s basically living in US sports venues you already know.

If you’ve been watching, you already know. Let’s get into it. All of my predictions and analyses are below.

Format

48 teams. 12 groups. Three host countries.

This is the first World Cup ever played with 48 teams, which is up from 32 in 2022. They’re split into 12 groups of four. The top two in each group advance automatically. Then the eight best third-place finishers also move on, giving you 32 teams in the Round of 32. From there, it’s a straight knockout until someone lifts the trophy on July 19 at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey.

Games are being played across 16 cities. 11 in the US, 3 in Mexico, 2 in Canada. SoFi Stadium. AT&T Stadium. Levi’s. Hard Rock. MetLife. Just to name a few. Yes, these are the NFL buildings.

Everything airs on FOX and FS1. Some games are free on Tubi, including today’s opener (Mexico vs South Africa) and the USA’s first match (USA vs Paraguay).

The Groups & Some Light Analysis

Here are all 12, with some basic analysis on each one:

Group A: Mexico, South Korea, South Africa, Czechia

Mexico is at home, playing in front of their home crowd. The Azteca will be rocking. South Korea has enough talent to steal second. South Africa, making their first appearance since 2010, is a great story.

Group B: Canada, Switzerland, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Qatar

This is most definitely Canada’s best squad ever. Jonathan David up front, Alphonso Davies on the wing, and with the home crowd behind them, they’re surely advancing. Switzerland is quietly one of the most dangerous knockout-stage teams in the world.

Group C: Brazil, Morocco, Scotland, Haiti

The group everyone’s watching. Brazil under Carlo Ancelotti in his first tournament, and they have Vinicius Jr., Raphinha, and elite talent everywhere. Morocco is a legitimate dark horse pick after their 2022 semifinal run. Scotland, making its first World Cup appearance since 1998, and Haiti, making its first World Cup appearance since 1974, are speed bumps.

Group D: USA, Australia, Paraguay, Türkiye

The US group. This is winnable. Paraguay is the biggest threat. Türkiye is unpredictable but beatable. Australia made the last-16 in 2022. This is the group where the USMNT earns its place. However, don’t be surprised if the US doesn’t advance. The U.S. has struggled under Mauricio Pochettino, losing both games of the Concacaf Nations League last year and falling short in spring friendlies against Belgium and Portugal.

Group E: Germany, Ivory Coast, Ecuador, Curaçao

Germany in a weak group is dangerous. They’re not the 2014 juggernaut anymore, but they’re still Germany. Ivory Coast has real quality. Ecuador is solid. Curaçao, the smallest country to ever qualify for the World Cup and in its first World Cup ever, just wants to compete.

Group F: Netherlands, Japan, Sweden/Ukraine, Tunisia

The Netherlands has a deep squad, but they’ve burned us before. Japan is genuinely one of the best-organized teams in the world. Don’t sleep on them. Sweden went winless in its first six qualifiers.

Group G: Belgium, Egypt, Iran, New Zealand

Belgium’s golden generation is aging out, but they’re still the class here. Egypt has Mo Salah. That one game is worth watching. Egypt has lots of experience on its roster from across the Premier League, Ligue 1, and La Liga as they hope to get out of the group stage.

Group H: Spain, Uruguay, Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia

Spain is the favorite to win the whole thing, and this group is basically a bye. Lamine Yamal, at 18 years old, is a must-watch. Uruguay has Luis Suarez and Darwin Nunez and enough fight to steal second. This is Cape Verde's first World Cup. Saudi Arabia made their World Cup debut in the US in 1994, and they’re back again in 2026.

Group I: France, Senegal, Norway, Iraq

The hardest group in the tournament. France are co-favorites. Norway has Erling Haaland, who is an absolute cheat code. Senegal is physically imposing and tactically disciplined. Iraq is the wild card. Something dramatic will happen here.

Group J: Argentina, Algeria, Austria, Jordan

In Messi’s record-tying sixth and most likely final World Cup, Argentina has a very good chance to take this group. This is still a stacked squad defending its title. Algeria could push Austria for second. Both teams will push Argentina. Jordan is another team that is making its first World Cup appearance.

Group K: Portugal, Colombia, DR Congo, Uzbekistan

Portugal has Ronaldo, who is also probably in his last World Cup, plus a young squad that’s arguably better without leaning on him. Colombia has Luis Diaz, James Rodriguez, and genuine title-contender talent. For DR Congo to advance, they’re going to need to have some good solidity at the back. Uzbekistan is developing, but they’re not there quite yet.

Group L: England, Croatia, Ghana, Panama

England vs. Croatia. Again. 2018 semifinal. 2022 group stage. Now, in 2026, in the same group again. England should win it, but it’s going to be tough. Harry Kane needs a tournament moment.

The Real Contenders

Spain (+450 to win) — The favorite, and they earned it. Reigning European champions. Lamine Yamal is 18 years old and already the best player in the world at his position. Their midfield is suffocating. Their group is easy. If they stay healthy, they are winning six of their seven games.

France (+500) — Kylian Mbappe already has 12 World Cup goals in two tournaments. He’s 27. This might be the year he takes over a tournament the way Messi did in 2022. The squad around him is deep. Their group is brutal, but they should survive it.

England (+650) — They’ve never won anything in 60 years. They always find a way to flame out. And yet, this squad is genuinely good. Harry Kane, Jude Bellingham, Bukayo Saka. The coach has tournament experience now. This is either the year they finally do it, or the year they find a new, creative way to lose.

Brazil (+850) — Carlo Ancelotti takes over a team that hasn’t won a World Cup since 2002. Vinicius Jr. is one of the best players on the planet. Raphinha. Rodrygo. The talent is there. The question is whether Ancelotti, elite at the club level, can build unity in the limited time international managers get. Group C is the most interesting early test.

Argentina (+1000) — Don’t let the odds fool you. Defending champions. Most of the 2022 core is still here. Messi at 38 isn’t the same player he was, and at this point, he might not start every game. But Lautaro Martinez is one of the best strikers in the world, and the squad can function without leaning on him every minute. The pressure is off them. That might make them more dangerous.

Portugal (+850) — This is genuinely Ronaldo’s last one. He’s 41. He’s not going to be the player he was, but he’s still Cristiano Ronaldo at a World Cup. The team around him, Bernardo Silva, Bruno Fernandes, and Diogo Dalot, is arguably their best generation since 2016. Group K is hard but winnable.

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The Dark Horses

Norway (+3300) — Erling Haaland. Full stop. He’s never played a World Cup game before. He’s coming off back-to-back Premier League seasons at an insane level. Norway has Martin Odegaard, Alexander Sorloth, and a team built around giving Haaland chances. They’re in Group I with France and Senegal, which means they’ll be tested early. If they survive that group, nobody wants to play them.

Morocco (+2500) — They made the semifinals in 2022 as a 200-1 longshot. They know how to do this. Five clean sheets in the 2025 AFCON. Achraf Hakimi is the superstar. A defensive structure that makes you work for everything. They’re in Group C with Brazil. If they finish second there, they’re a genuine quarterfinal threat.

Colombia (+1600) — James Rodriguez. Luis Diaz. Falcao’s gone, but the next generation is here. They have the attacking talent to beat anyone on a given day, and they qualified comfortably. If they get through their group, they are dangerous.

Japan (+2700) — Tactically, the most disciplined team in the tournament that isn’t a traditional European power. They’ve beaten Germany and Spain in the same group at the last World Cup. They’ll do something wild again. Guarantee it.

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Predictions:

Who goes out in the group stage that shouldn’t: Belgium. Too much ego, not enough unity anymore. Mo Salah’s Egypt steals their spot.

Biggest upset of the tournament: Norway beats France in Group I. Haaland scores twice. The internet loses its mind.

Dark horse semifinalist: Morocco. They’ve done it before, and their setup is built for tournaments.

Golden Boot: Kylian Mbappe. He has 12 World Cup goals already, and France potentially plays seven games. The math works.

Final Four: Spain, France, Norway, Argentina.

Final: Norway vs. France. The cheat code vs. the machine.

Champion: Norway. Yeah, we said it. Haaland, at 25, in his first-ever World Cup, has something to prove. They went 8-for-8 in qualifying and beat Italy home and away. Odegaard just won the Premier League. Nobody wants to play them in a knockout game. The group is brutal, but if they get through it, and I think they do, every team left in this bracket has a reason to be scared. Someone always comes out of nowhere. This year it’s Norway.

The “Watch These Games” Calendar

You don’t have to watch everything. Here are a couple of group stage games worth clearing your schedule for:

June 11 — TODAY: Mexico vs. South Africa, 3 PM ET (FOX/Tubi — free)

The tournament opener. Estadio Azteca. 87,000 fans. Mexico is on home soil for the first time since 1986. South Africa is making their first appearance since 2010, when it hosted it. The atmosphere alone is worth tuning in for.

June 12: USA vs. Paraguay, 9 PM ET (FOX/Tubi — free)

Home opener at SoFi Stadium. Paraguay beat Uruguay and Mexico last year and only narrowly lost to Morocco in March. The US cannot sleep on this one, and neither can you. Free to watch. No excuses.

June 13: Brazil vs. Morocco, 6 PM ET (FS1)

Tournament favorite vs. the team that made the semis in 2022 as a 200-1 longshot. MetLife Stadium in New Jersey. Brazil hasn’t made a semifinal in two decades. Morocco has. Something has to give.

June 14: Germany vs. Curaçao, 1 PM ET (FOX)

The smallest nation ever in a World Cup. Playing Germany.

June 14: Netherlands vs. Japan, 4 PM ET (FOX)

Group F might be the hardest to call in the whole bracket. These two meet in the first weekend, and it could effectively decide who tops the group. AT&T Stadium in Dallas. Both teams are capable of beating anyone.

June 17: England vs. Croatia, 4 PM ET (FOX)

England hasn’t recovered from 2018 when Croatia knocked them out of the semis. Now they’re in the same group again. AT&T Stadium. Croatia is older but still dangerous. England fans have been waiting eight years for this one.

June 24: Canada vs. Switzerland, 3 PM ET

Both teams should be 2-0 by this point. Both meet in Vancouver, Canada’s home crowd. Switzerland is the heavy favorite in Group B, but Canada at home in a winner-take-all situation is not a team you want to face. It could be the upset of the group stage.

June 25: Germany vs. Ecuador, 4 PM ET

Final group stage game for Group E. Both teams are expected to be alive at this point, and it’ll effectively be a knockout match. MetLife Stadium. Ecuador has emerged as a genuine dark horse. Germany needs to prove they’re back.

June 26: Norway vs. France, 3 PM ET (FOX)

Mbappe vs. Haaland. Les Bleus vs. the Vikings. World Cup favorites vs. the most dangerous dark horse in the tournament. Gillette Stadium in Boston. This is the game of the group stage. It’s probably for the top spot. We already told you who we think wins.

June 26: Spain vs. Uruguay, 8 PM ET

Spain should be 2-0 and cruise. Uruguay should be 2-0 and cruise. Neither team will have been tested. Now they play each other in Guadalajara. Uruguay has nothing to lose, and that makes it extremely dangerous.

June 27: Colombia vs. Portugal, 7:30 PM ET

Ronaldo’s last World Cup. James Rodriguez on the other side. Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. Both teams will likely be through already, but neither will want to lose top spot heading into the knockouts. Watch for the individual brilliance on both sides.

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One Last Thing Before We Kick Off.

I’ll be away from Sports Square from June 15 through June 29. No original coverage from me during that stretch, but that doesn’t mean you’ll be left hanging. Every day, I’ll be reading and crossposting the best World Cup content I come across so your feed stays full of great stuff to read while the tournament is in full swing.

The moment I’m back on June 30, we are going full send. We’re talking 2x-3x the usual output. We’ll be doing game breakdowns, hot takes, bracket reactions, all of it. Everything you’d expect from this newsletter and then some.

For all of our readers expecting normal US sports programming, don’t worry! Throughout the World Cup, I will still be sending out many hockey, basketball, and baseball pieces.

Since this post is now live, a dedicated section for the FIFA World Cup is now available on the website at sportssquarenews.com. For those interested in a specific country, a country directory will also be on that page (hopefully completed by 11:59 PM ET on Thursday). You will be able to click the intended country and see all articles linked to it.

Until then, I’ve got you covered through Saturday. Enjoy the World Cup. It’s going to be a wild one.

But that’s exactly what happened on the South Side of Chicago. Chris Getz was the White Sox general manager1 when they set the modern era record for losses in 2024. He watched every single one. He owned it. And then he went to work.

Here’s the thing people get wrong about Getz. Yes, he was inside the organization when it fell apart. He was Rick Hahn’s assistant GM. But his specific job was running player development. What’s that, you ask? Well, that’s the minor league system, the pipeline, the part of the organization that was actually working.

When Kenny Williams (Executive Vice President) and Rick Hahn (General Manager) got fired, Getz was the one person in that building worth keeping. And the first thing he did when he got the job was make sure he didn’t stay alone in that building for long.

Within three weeks of being named GM, he went outside the organization and hired Josh Barfield, Brian Bannister, and Gene Watson. None of these guys had any connection to the regime that ran the franchise into the ground. Getz rebuilt the room around himself before he ever touched the roster.

Then he started trading.

In March 2024, he shipped Dylan Cease to San Diego. If you don’t follow baseball that closely, here’s why that matters. Cease was the team’s ace. One of the better strikeout pitchers in the sport. The kind of guy most rebuilding teams hold onto as a symbol of hope. Getz traded him for four prospects. Cease eventually signed a seven-year, $210 million deal with Toronto. Some people will tell you that Getz undersold him. Yeah. He did. But Cease was never re-signing in Chicago, and Getz knew it. You sell before the market figures that out.

The Garrett Crochet trade defined his tenure2, though. December 2024. Crochet was a 25-year-old All-Star who struck out over 200 batters in his first full season as a starter. Exactly the kind of pitcher you build a franchise around. Getz traded him to Boston anyway. The return was four players: catcher Kyle Teel, infielder Chase Meidroth, outfielder Braden Montgomery, and pitcher Wikelman Gonzalez. Four for one, and at Crochet’s peak value. Getz cashed in and built a core.

Here’s what makes it even more impressive. Those four players aren’t just sitting in the minors anymore. They’re already producing. Teel is a 23-year-old catcher with a rare feel for hitting. Last season, he hit .404 with runners in scoring position, which was the highest average in the majors among players with at least 50 plate appearances in that situation. Meidroth plays second base and is one of the better young contact hitters in the game. Braden Montgomery was called up and hit a walk-off HR in his debut game. Wikelman Gonzalez has had his ups and downs, but he’s also made it to the majors.

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And, it’s not just the Crochet trade. Colson Montgomery, a 23-year-old shortstop the White Sox developed themselves, has 11 home runs and 29 RBIs this season. Last year, Teel, Meidroth, and Colson Montgomery combined with catcher Edgar Quero for 342 MLB hits as rookies, which is the most by a White Sox rookie foursome since 1914.

And then there’s Munetaka Murakami. If you don’t know him, here’s what you need to know. He’s a 26-year-old Japanese superstar who crushed 56 home runs in Japan in 2022, breaking the legendary Sadaharu Oh’s single-season record for a Japanese-born player. Think of him as Japan’s version of Shohei Ohtani, minus the pitching. Most big-market teams passed on him because of strikeout concerns. Getz signed him for $34 million on a two-year deal. Before getting injured, Murakami was tied for the AL lead in home runs and leading the league in runs scored.

The pipeline still isn’t empty either. Top prospect Caleb Bonemer is hitting .269/.381/.654 in High-A at just 20 years old. They didn’t mortgage their future to win now either, because guess what? They’re winning now, and they've got a lot more coming.

Alex Anthopoulos in Atlanta is widely considered the best GM3 in baseball. He’s had eight years, a massive market, a healthy budget, and one of the best farm systems handed to him when he arrived. He’s done incredible work. Nobody is disputing that. But Anthopoulos inherited a good situation and made it great. Getz inherited the worst situation in modern baseball history and turned it into a Wild Card race in less than three years. And this was on a budget that would make most teams laugh, by identifying value nobody else saw, and by making trades most GMs were too scared to make. That’s doing your job better than almost everyone else in baseball right now.

On August 1st last year, the White Sox matched their entire 2024 win total in just their 110th game of the season. Today, they're 35-31, in second place in the AL Central, in the Wild Card race. Less than two years removed from 121 losses.

Getz was there for the worst of it. He’s the reason for the best of it. That’s not a coincidence.

That’s a top 5 GM doing his job.

This is a rematch of the 1999 Finals (which was Tim "you have no idea how good he was" Duncan's first ring). In 2026, this matchup leaves nothing to be desired. Stars? Beyond impactful role players? Genius coaches? Legacies on the line? Two starved teams who "play the game the right way," according to NBA Twitter? Yeah. You're about to get all of that and a whole lot more.

The Spurs have gotten here by taking down what was believed to be the NBA's next great dynasty, keeping parity alive in the West. However, unlike what most want you to believe, this could be a long and hard-fought series. Don't sleep on the Knicks, who have gone on a generational run and are obliterating teams. You might have forgotten because of the unmissable Western Conference Finals, but they're currently riding an 11-game playoff win streak!

But how were these teams built? The truth is not as simple as you think. Both of these teams are ideological enemies.

The San Antonio Spurs' luck is one of the reasons they are here. I mean, how do you get the 1st overall pick in 2023, the 4th overall pick in 2024, and the 2nd overall pick in 2025? Oh, and guess who the players were? Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, and Dylan Harper (more on him in a bit).

Those are three x-factors this team has gotten in the past three years. Their strategy was simple: break the team down, deal with some terrible years, and hope for the best. With both OKC and San Antonio, that worked out.

However, some teams don't get lucky like that, like the Knicks. Since 2017, their first-round picks have either been outright bad or haven't contributed to winning for the organization. Frank Ntilikina, Kevin Knox, Obi Toppin, and RJ Barrett aren't all terrible, but they haven't gotten them anywhere.

So, what's actually helped them? Smart trades and free agency pickups: taking the risk on Brunson in free agency, being willing to sacrifice for Bridges and KAT, getting rid of Barrett's contract for OG, and trading for Josh Hart. These are the result of a great front office working its magic. They are designed to win now.

You’ve probably heard about the changes to the draft by now. If you haven’t, here’s what you need to know.

The NBA approved a new “3-2-1” lottery system starting in 2027 that gives more non-playoff and play-in teams chances at the top pick, flattens the odds, and limits how often the same team can land at the very top, all meant to kill off tanking incentives.

With the changes to the draft, the NBA wants teams to take the Knicks' approach.

Let's think about what the Wizards did this past offseason. They were terrible and weren't getting rewarded for it in the draft. Their mentality was very simple: what do we have to lose? So what do they do? Take swings on aging and unwanted stars Trae Young and AD, and would you look at that. They suddenly have the #1 pick and AJ Dybansta in the palm of their hands.

What this means is… we're not going to see another Spurs team like this one ever again.

That's just not how the league wants teams to reach the top anymore. And so, this makes the current Finals matchup even more impactful beyond Wemby's potential GOAT case or Brunson being the biggest New York sports player of all time. In its simplest form, this is draft luck vs. front office brilliance. What's dying out versus what's blossoming.

Now let's talk about the most human story in this whole series. His name is Dylan Harper.

Dylan grew up 25 minutes from Madison Square Garden. He went to Knicks games as a kid. He knows what that building sounds like. And in about 13 hours, he’s walking in there as the enemy.

Everyone’s locked in on the Alien vs the Magician, the 53-year drought, the 1999 rematch. But the most human (get it?) story of these Finals is a 20-year-old from Franklin Lakes, New Jersey, who has to go home and beat the team his neighbors have been waiting their whole lives to see win. He said it himself after the Western Conference Finals: “I’ve been to so many Knicks playoff games. I live 25 to 30 minutes from the arena.”

And, yes, he’s performing, averaging about 13.1 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 2.6 assists across 18 playoff games. With Fox out in Game 1 of the West Finals, he stepped up for 24 points, 11 rebounds, seven steals, and six assists against the defending champions. By the way, he’s a rookie.

This Finals is being framed as Wemby’s welcome to the league or New York’s long-overdue moment. Sure, it could be both. But somewhere in the middle of all that, a kid from Jersey is about to play the biggest games of his life in the building where he used to sit in the stands and cheer. Except he won’t be cheering. He’ll be trying to break their hearts.

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Guess who the #1 seed is this year?

The Carolina Hurricanes.

Alright, alright. What about the 4 seed? They’ve probably had a couple of wins, right?

Three. The New Jersey Devils in 2000, Pittsburgh in 2009, and Chicago in 2015. Three wins total in over 30 years.

Guess who the #4 seed is this year?

The Las Vegas Golden Knights.

It doesn’t matter what way you look at it. Everything points to the Las Vegas Golden Knights losing.

You’re probably expecting a “well here’s why they aren’t” right? Nope. That’s not happening. Let’s take this exact narrative and answer the real question.

What actually happens when Vegas loses?

The Golden Knights aren’t exactly at the end of their championship window. But this is going to be one of the last times we see the most favorable version of it. And the reasons are all in the numbers.

The cap math is ugly, even by Vegas standards.

Vegas heads into the offseason with $4.625 million in projected cap space. That’s it. On a roster that still needs to re-sign Pavel Dorofeyev, Rasmus Andersson, and Adin Hill. Dorofeyev broke out this postseason. Andersson cost real assets and plays real minutes. Hill is a goalie who can now walk into negotiations with a Stanley Cup Final on his resume, and he’s likely to command at least $6 million a year. Three huge contracts.

And that’s before you account for Jack Eichel’s $13.5 million cap hit kicking in next season on his new 8-year extension, making him the third-highest paid player in the league. You live with that number because elite centers are how you win in this league.

Once that number is locked in, the only place left to cut is the depth. The players who weren’t supposed to be this good. The ones who made this team what it is.

This exact team won’t exist again.

The forwards already locked in for next year are Stone, Hertl, Karlsson, Barbashev, Roy, Howden, and Kolesar. On defense: Pietrangelo, Hanifin, Theodore, McNabb, Whitecloud. Core is fine. It’s everything underneath it that changes.

The biggest example: Pavel Dorofeyev.

He made $1.835 million this season, led the entire NHL in playoff goals, and his own teammates can’t stop talking about him.

He’s expected to seek around $8 million annually on a long-term deal. That’s a $6 million raise for a guy who just became the most dangerous playoff scorer in the league on a near-rookie contract.

That’s the real cost of a deep run. You prove players are worth more than you’re paying them, and then, well, you have to pay them. Vegas doesn’t have the cap space to do that painlessly. That deal alone eats most of what they have left.

If Vegas loses, McCrimmon has to start cutting depth to afford the core and start trusting rookies in spots that used to be stable.

Why Carolina can afford to miss and Vegas can’t.

Jackson Blake is signed under $5.2 million a year. Logan Stankoven is locked up for 8 seasons at below market value. Carolina has over $8 million in cap space. Their best players are young, cheap, and under control. If they lose this Final, the question isn’t “is the window closing?” It’s “how many more times can they get back here?” Probably a few.

For Vegas, this Final is the most balanced, cap-friendly, perfectly timed version of their roster they’re likely to ice for a while. You don’t get many seasons where your stars are healthy, your value contracts are all hitting, and your role guys are all playing above their ticket.

That’s this year’s Golden Knights.

Win the Cup now, or watch this roster get picked apart piece by piece this summer. There’s no third option.

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Predictions:

Gimme the Canes’ in 6.

But before we get into Mendoza going first overall, before the Jets make the pick everyone’s been debating for two months, there’s a story you need to know about. One that started in Green Bay last year and is coming to Pittsburgh this week.

His name is Ike Winter. Remember it.

Ike is a Milwaukee-based artist who spent 700 hours building all 32 NFL team logos entirely out of reclaimed wood. And I mean that literally. No paint. No stain. Every piece of wood came from furniture he pulled out of alleys and off the side of the road. Fifty-plus pieces of discarded furniture. Every logo is 3x3 feet. Natural tones only.

Oh, and he did it all with a couple of saws in his garage. Out of pure curiosity. For fun.

The NFL commissioned him. His work lines the path that every draft pick walks after hearing their name called. The moment you see your future, you’re walking past Ike’s art.

And then Travis Hunter happened.

Last year in Green Bay, Hunter, the second overall pick, walked past the artwork and just slapped it. Not a tap. A real slap. Five minutes later, the CMO of the NFL pulled Ike aside and told him every player in the green room was talking about slapping their team’s logo. Something like this had never happened before. A spontaneous, unscripted moment that turned into an instant tradition.

Nobody planned that. Nobody could have. It just happened because the art was that good and the energy in that room was that real.

Now it comes to Pittsburgh, where the theme is “Built by Community.” In all honesty, you cannot write a more perfect tagline for Ike’s story if you tried.

When the NFL first knocked on Ike’s door, they had no idea he had skin in the game beyond the craft. Ike Winter is the grandson of Ray Cuffell, who was drafted by the Buffalo Bills in 1944. Football is literally in his bloodline, and the league had no idea.

His grandfather never got a moment like this. Ike’s getting it for both of them.

Wisconsin’s trash. Pittsburgh’s treasure.

Now, the picks.

Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders at No. 1 is locked. Reports have him already working to acclimate to Vegas’ offense, and Klint Kubiak built his whole pitch around this kid. Indiana’s QB1 is the face of this class, and that pick is not moving.

No. 2 is where it gets spicy. The Jets have been going back and forth on this for months. Everything out of the Jets’ building this week points to Arvell Reese, the Ohio State edge rusher. But Peter Schrager went on the record saying David Bailey. Bailey wins with elite burst and bend and is the most “ready right now” pass rusher in this class. Reese has the higher ceiling but is more of a project. With Aaron Glenn as head coach wanting an impact defender immediately, I lean toward Bailey. We’ll see. This is genuinely the most fun market on Kalshi right now if you want to put something behind that take. New users get a free $10.

No. 3 is a potential trade domino. If the Jets take Reese, a team like the Chiefs at No. 9 could trade up to Arizona for Bailey. If both edge rushers are gone, the Cardinals likely pivot to Jeremiyah Love out of Notre Dame, the most electric running back prospect in years. The Cardinals are the wildcards of round one. Watch them.

The Steelers have 12 picks in this draft, the most of any team. They need a quarterback. This city needs a quarterback. Whether that’s Ty Simpson, Garrett Nussmeier, or Carson Beck sliding to them in round two, that’s the subplot nobody’s talking about enough heading into day one.

Tomorrow night, Ike’s wood goes up on those walls in Pittsburgh. Some kid who’s dreamed about this moment his whole life is going to hear his name called, walk down that path, and slap a logo made from furniture someone threw in an alley.

That’s the NFL Draft. That’s why we watch.

Let’s go.

That’s what the sportsbooks gave Pittsburgh to make the playoffs before this season started. Their over/under point total was 75.5. The consensus was loud and unanimous: this was a lost season, a transition year, a team that should be shipping out veterans and stockpiling picks. Multiple outlets called the trade deadline the most important day of their season before a puck was even dropped.

Last night, the Pittsburgh Penguins clinched a playoff spot.

And every front office that spent the last three years pointing at Pittsburgh as the cautionary tale for why you don’t run it back with aging stars just got embarrassed in real time.

Let’s be specific about how wrong everyone was.

FanDuel had Pittsburgh’s playoff odds at +550, tied for worst in the Eastern Conference. Analysts predicted they’d be sellers at the deadline. Their own fanbase debated whether finishing last for a top pick was more valuable than competing. The narrative was settled: Crosby is 38, Malkin is 39, the window is closed, let it go.

Instead, Crosby just finished his 21st consecutive point-per-game season. He has 72 points in 66 games. He passed Steve Yzerman for seventh place on the NHL’s all-time points list. Malkin, who everyone assumed was done, posted 59 points in 54 games, his highest per-60 rate at five-on-five since 2019-20. Erik Karlsson at 35 was voted team MVP and carried the Penguins through stretches when both superstars were out injured. An 18-year-old rookie named Ben Kindel went straight from the draft to the NHL and became a legitimate contributor.

Crosby, Malkin, and Letang have now played together for 20 seasons, the longest-tenured trio in North American professional sports. They were supposed to be done. They are going to the playoffs.

The real story isn’t just that Pittsburgh is good.

It’s what they did to get here.

A season that began with expectations of a high pick in the 2026 draft and reports that it would certainly be Malkin’s last with the Penguins has turned into another shot at a fourth Cup. GM Kyle Dubas didn’t blow it up. He didn’t trade Rust or Rakell as everyone predicted. He added depth: Anthony Mantha, Justin Brazeau, a mid-season deal for Egor Chinakhov, and let the veterans be veterans. He hired Dan Muse, a first-time NHL head coach with zero head coaching experience at this level, and Muse outcoached half the league.

Pittsburgh was winning five of six games down the stretch when it mattered most. That’s a team that believed in itself when basically nobody outside the locker room did.

Here’s why this matters beyond Pittsburgh.

Every year, the tank conversation gets louder in hockey. Blow it up. Collect picks. Trust the process. The analytics crowd has largely won this debate in front offices across the league. The moment a star hits 35, the calculators come out, and the verdict is almost always the same: move on.

Pittsburgh refused. And right now they’re proving the model wrong.

That doesn’t mean tanking is always stupid. It isn’t. But it means the league’s smartest people consistently underestimate two things: what elite players can still do in their late 30s, and what a great locker room is actually worth. You cannot spreadsheet culture. You cannot model what Crosby does to an 18-year-old rookie’s development just by being in the same building.

Ben Kindel is a better hockey player today because Sidney Crosby exists. That doesn’t show up in any projection system.

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The playoffs start soon.

Pittsburgh will face one of Philadelphia, Columbus, or the Islanders in the first round. None of those matchups scares them. After everything this season has thrown at this team, the age concerns, the injury absences, the front-office skeptics, the sportsbook odds, they’re not losing sleep over a wild-card opponent.

Whether they go deep or get bounced early, the damage to the conventional wisdom is already done.

Pittsburgh ran it back. It worked. Every GM watching has to sit with that.

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But I don’t think either of those reactions is actually looking at what’s going on here. Because this isn’t just a baseball story. Actually, let me phrase that correctly. This might not even be a baseball story.

Here’s what we know. Bauer is 35. He hasn’t thrown an MLB pitch since June 2021. He spent 2023 in Japan with the Yokohama DeNA BayStars (2.76 ERA), then went to Mexico in 2024 with the Diablos Rojos (2.48 ERA), then went back to Japan in 2025, where he went 4-10 with a 4.41 ERA. Now he’s in the Atlantic League, which is an independent league, not even affiliated with MLB, starting opening night on April 21 for a team in Central Islip, New York.

And here’s the part that everyone kind of glossed over in the reporting: Bauer is going to be mic’d up for every single game and every single practice.

Every. Single. One.

That is not a guy trying to quietly prove he belongs. You and I might have different opinions on this, but I believe that’s a guy who knows exactly what he’s doing.

Let’s be honest about the baseball side of this first, because it’s not looking great.

The Atlantic League is a partner league with MLB, and it’s a real league. Guys work hard there; some make it back to affiliated ball. But if you’re a 35-year-old former Cy Young winner who’s been out of the majors for five years, and no MLB team has touched you even at the league minimum, the Atlantic League is your final answer.

Bauer has said he doesn’t believe he was given a lifetime ban. He’s right that he wasn’t. He served his 194-game suspension. The civil claims against him were settled, both sides withdrew, and no money changed hands. He was never criminally charged. From a pure legal standpoint, the case is closed.

But MLB front offices don’t work like courts. They work on risk management. And signing Trevor Bauer, at 35, with all of that backstory, is a risk almost no team is willing to take, even if the stuff on the mound still works. Well, that’s if it works, because that wasn’t the case last year in Japan. A 4.41 ERA is a 4.41 ERA. Ball don’t lie.

So the path back to MLB is not happening, and I think that Bauer knows that. So, then, why does he keep on trying?

This is a content play. Full stop.

Think about it. He’s mic’d up constantly. He’s pitching in front of American fans again for the first time in five years. The Long Island Ducks are getting national media attention they haven’t gotten in probably ever. And Bauer, who has built a massive YouTube channel and online following over the years, is going to have enough content from this season to run for years.

There’s nothing wrong with that, by the way. It’s extremely smart. If MLB isn’t going to give you a shot regardless of what you do or whether you were wronged or right, why not use the platform you do have to build something? He’s a known name, people are going to tune in, and the mic’d-up angle is compelling content.

But let’s stop framing this as a comeback attempt and call it what it is. If this were truly about getting back to the majors, you’d be keeping a lower profile. You wouldn’t be turning every bullpen session into a YouTube video. You’d be grinding quietly and letting the results speak.

Bauer has never been that kind of pitcher, though. He’s always been more personality than any other pitcher in baseball, and honestly, that was part of what made him interesting to follow before everything went sideways.

Here’s the question I actually want to ask: Does it matter?

Like, is there anything wrong with a former major league pitcher using an independent league team as a content stage? Is there anything wrong with the Long Island Ducks getting a big name who’s going to put them on the map for a few months? The Ducks’ president literally said they’re “happy to offer him this opportunity to showcase his talents to MLB clubs.”

I go back and forth on this.

On one hand, there are guys in that Atlantic League who genuinely need those roster spots. Guys who are 26, 27, fighting for one more shot at affiliated ball, who are now competing for playing time with a 35-year-old who’s mostly there to be famous. That part bugs me a little.

On the other hand, the Ducks are a business. More attention means more fans, more revenue, more everything. And if Bauer is genuinely still competing, and a 2.48 ERA in Mexico two years ago says he can still pitch to some extent, then he’s not just taking up space.

Look, I’m a Dodgers fan. Bauer is in my memory as a complicated chapter that I’d rather not revisit. The $102 million deal. The 17 starts. The way it all fell apart. It was a mess, and the Dodgers have done a pretty good job of moving on from it.

But the reason I find this story interesting isn’t the comeback narrative. It’s the fact that we’re watching a former elite athlete basically build a second career in real time, using the shell of the first one. And he’s doing it in front of a mic, on purpose.

Whether that’s admirable or kind of uncomfortable probably depends on how you feel about Bauer as a person. And I understand both reactions. I really do.

What I don’t buy is the framing that this is a legitimate MLB comeback bid. It’s not. And that’s okay to say.

He’s 35. He’s in the Atlantic League. No MLB team has called. And he’s mic’d up for practices.

This is a content strategy with a baseball uniform on.

And honestly? It might work out great for him.

What’s your take — do you think Bauer deserves another shot in MLB, or is this chapter closed? Drop it in the comments or email me at sportssquareauthor@gmail.com. Always want to hear from you.

— Smayan

The Automatic Ball and Strike system is now officially in place. This means hitters can challenge a call if they believe it’s a ball, and catchers can challenge if they think it’s a strike. It’s about time.

I don’t want to focus too much on this specific Opening Day, but I’m going to predict the records for each team now.

Also, it’s my birthday!

Thank you all for being part of this journey with me. You’re the reason I keep going!

I share my birthday with Tom Glavine, Dutch Leonard, Travis Fryman, Hyun Jin Ryu, Lee Mazzilli, Dan Wilson, Mike Zunino, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Emmanuel Moseley, Mike White, Elton Johnson, and T.J. McConnell, just to name a few.

2026 MLB Team Record Predictions:

Arizona Diamondbacks: 81-81
Atlanta Braves: 90-72
Baltimore Orioles: 86-76
Boston Red Sox: 87-75
Chicago Cubs: 89-73
Chicago White Sox: 61-101
Cincinnati Reds: 78-84
Cleveland Guardians: 78-84
Colorado Rockies: 54-108
Detroit Tigers: 89-73
Houston Astros: 84-78
Kansas City Royals: 83-79
Los Angeles Angels: 68-94
Los Angeles Dodgers: 101-61
Miami Marlins: 72-90
Milwaukee Brewers: 83-79
Minnesota Twins: 78-84
New York Mets: 92-70
New York Yankees: 89-73
Oakland Athletics: 79-83
Philadelphia Phillies: 90-72
Pittsburgh Pirates: 81-81
San Diego Padres: 83-79
San Francisco Giants: 83-79
Seattle Mariners: 90-72
St. Louis Cardinals: 70-92
Tampa Bay Rays: 79-83
Texas Rangers: 83-79
Toronto Blue Jays: 88-74
Washington Nationals: 58-104

Now contrast that with Team USA. Three hits. Zero at-bats with a runner in scoring position through the first seven innings against a pitcher with a 5.02 ERA. Aaron Judge, the captain, is going 0-for-4 with three strikeouts in the biggest game of the tournament. And through all of it, silence. Not the silence of devastation. The silence of guys who were already thinking about spring training.

The United States had the most talented roster in World Baseball Classic history. They also had the least heart.

I hate to be the one to say it, but this United States team had no passion for their country.

The Scoreboard Said More Than the Stars Did

Before we talk culture and attitude, let's look at the numbers, because the lack of passion showed up in cold, hard statistics.

This is a lineup that features Aaron Judge, Bryce Harper, Bobby Witt Jr., and Kyle Schwarber, generational talents who the sport markets as its biggest stars. They were held to three hits total by a pitcher who struggled badly last season and a Venezuelan bullpen working on back-to-back nights. Eduardo Rodríguez shut them out over 4⅓ innings and exited with one hit allowed. The Venezuelan bullpen, exhausted after needing 23 outs from relievers against Italy the night before, covered the rest without breaking.

The only life Team USA showed was a Bryce Harper two-run blast in the eighth that briefly tied the game. But even that was too late and too little. A single player carrying the emotional weight of an entire nation on his back while the rest of the lineup watched.

No Identity. No Celebrations. No Joy.

Watch how other teams played at this tournament. Italy had its espresso celebration. The Dominican Republic had Vladdy Guerrero Jr. lifting a plantain barbell. Mexico brought electric energy to every game that made neutrals feel something. Great Britain played loosely and joyfully. Venezuela played with the fire of a nation going through something, and they let you feel every second of it.

Team USA? They clocked in. They clocked out.

Aaron Judge's pregame pump-up speech, meant to fire up the team before the final, was widely ridiculed online as looking passionless and flat. The team had no visible celebration identity, no unique ritual, nothing that said this means something to us. And the Venezuelan fans, representing the 250,000-plus Venezuelan immigrants in the Miami metropolitan area, were the loudest presence in that stadium for a final played on American soil. Team USA's home crowd was drowned out entirely.

If that's the most fun they've ever had, why couldn't anyone watching tell?

Judge pushed back on the passionate criticism on Friday, arguing that American players simply show their love differently — through private preparation rather than public celebration. It's a fair point. But passion is not just about bat flips and dugout dances. It's about what you do when you're down 2-0 in the World Baseball Classic final. And what Team USA did was go 0-for-their-last-chance with the game on the line.

This Is a Pattern, Not a One-Off

Team USA scored 44 runs across seven WBC games — but look at who they scored them against. When they faced real pitching, the lineup went flat every time.

Team USA pool play reality check

Beat Brazil, Great Britain, and Mexico in pool play, all before a shockingly passive loss to Italy 8-6.

Advanced to the quarterfinals only because Italy beat Mexico the following day. Team USA had no control over their own fate.

This is the third straight WBC in which the United States has reached the final. It is the second straight final they have lost.

And Then There's DeRosa

The players set the tone. But their manager did them no favors either.

Before the Italy pool play game, DeRosa appeared on MLB Network's Hot Stove, his own show, and announced that Team USA's ticket to the quarterfinals was already punched. It was not. A loss to Italy could have triggered a three-way tie that sent the United States home. He then revealed the team had been "celebrating until the wee hours of the night" and that some players were "dragging" the morning of the game.

"We want to win this game even though our ticket's punched to the quarterfinals." — Mark DeRosa, MLB Network Hot Stove, before the Italy game. Team USA had not clinched. They went on to lose 8-6.

When asked to defend himself afterward, DeRosa denied the misunderstanding, then proved it by misremembering his own team's record. He said both teams entered the Italy game 2-0. Team USA was 3-0.

But DeRosa is a symptom, not the disease. The disease is a United States baseball culture that treats this tournament as a March obligation rather than a matter of national pride. Other countries bring backup players who leave it all on the field. The United States brings All-Stars who seem vaguely inconvenienced by being there.

Venezuela Understood Something Team USA Didn't

This Venezuela team played every game knowing what it meant. Not just as a baseball tournament, but as a statement for a country enduring one of the most turbulent periods in its modern history. "I'm sure each Venezuelan was watching this game," Suárez said after the final. "I'm sure they enjoyed it more than us." That's what it looks like when a team actually cares. They played for something bigger than themselves.

Team USA played for a gold medal. So did Venezuela. The difference is that Venezuela played like the journey mattered, too. For Team USA, the journey was a formality. And in baseball, the team that wants it more usually wins.

Venezuela earned it. And until the United States sends a team that plays like that, jersey means something, not just in the clubhouse away from cameras, but on the field where it counts, they will keep watching other countries celebrate on their soil.

I know I was a little late on this, so I’m sorry about that. Also, please make no mistake. I am and will always be a fan of my country, the United States of America.

Several games came down to the final swing. Others flipped in a single inning. A few were never close.

Across the board, the theme was the same: power changed everything.

Here’s how the action unfolded so far. I’ve only highlighted a couple of games

Puerto Rico 4, Panama 3 (10 innings)

Puerto Rico needed one swing to end it.

San Juan native Darell Hernaiz, a 24-year-old Athletics prospect, delivered it.

With the game tied in the 10th inning, Hernaiz jumped on a first-pitch fastball and launched it 374 feet to left field for a walk-off homer at Hiram Bithorn Stadium.

Hernaiz also singled earlier in the fifth inning.

Puerto Rico’s pitching kept them within striking distance all night. Starter Eduardo Rivera threw five scoreless innings, handing the game to the bullpen.

Reliever José Espada earned the win after tossing two shutout innings late.

Panama nearly stole it with strong pitching of its own. Ariel Jurado opened with five scoreless innings, and the Panamanian staff used five pitchers overall. But one mistake in the 10th was all it took.

Hernaiz made sure of that.

Netherlands 4, Nicaragua 3

This one turned historic.

The Netherlands trailed 3–1 entering the ninth inning and had two outs. Then the rally started.

Ceddanne Rafaela singled.
Xander Bogaerts doubled.

Suddenly, the bases were loaded.

Ozzie Albies stepped in and crushed the first pitch he saw from reliever Angel Obando, sending it 411 feet over the wall for a three-run walk-off homer.

It was the first walk-off home run in World Baseball Classic history.

The blast instantly flipped the scoreboard from 3–1 Nicaragua to a 4–3 Dutch victory.

Nicaragua had controlled the game most of the night. Starter Erasmo Ramírez left with a 1–0 lead, and reliever Lars Huijer worked two innings before the final collapse.

One pitch changed everything.

Japan 8, South Korea 6

Japan fell behind immediately.

South Korea jumped out to a 3–0 lead in the first inning, putting early pressure on the tournament favorites.

Japan answered the only way it knows how: with power.

In one explosive inning, the lineup launched three home runs.

• Shohei Ohtani crushed a hanging curveball 408 feet for a solo shot

• Seiya Suzuki followed with back-to-back home runs (386 and 385 feet)

• Masataka Yoshida added another blast 387 feet

Just like that, the deficit disappeared, and Japan moved ahead 5–3.

South Korean starter Ko Young-pyo paid for two mistakes that Ohtani and Suzuki did not miss.

From there, Japan’s bullpen stabilized the game. Atsuki Taneichi and Taisei Ota helped secure the 8–6 victory.

The sequence showed exactly why Japan’s lineup is so dangerous. Pitch around Ohtani, and you face Suzuki and Yoshida right behind him.

Canada 6, Colombia 1

Canada built its win early and never gave Colombia momentum.

In the second inning, Owen Caissie launched a 403-foot two-run homer off emergency starter Austin Bergner, giving Canada a quick 2–0 lead.

Defense added another key moment in the first inning.

When Michael Arroyo tried to score on a single, Josh Naylor fired a throw home, and Bo Naylor applied the tag for the out, erasing a potential Colombian run.

On the mound, Michael Soroka dominated. The Canadian starter retired the first 14 batters he faced, keeping Colombia quiet through the middle innings.

Canada finally broke the game open with a four-run eighth inning, helped by an error and timely hitting.

Colombia cycled through five pitchers, but Canada’s balanced offense kept the pressure on all night.

Early power plus clean defense gave Canada control from the start.

Venezuela 11, Israel 3

Venezuela’s offense didn’t wait around.

The lineup exploded for four runs in the first inning, immediately knocking Israel’s starter out of the game.

The biggest performance belonged to Luis Arraez.

The former batting champion finished with:

• Two home runs (372 and 355 feet)

• Two doubles

• Five RBIs

Eugenio Suárez added a two-run homer in the first inning, while the lineup mixed power with patience, including a bases-loaded walk.

Israel cycled through five pitchers, including Ben Simon, but the damage kept piling up.

Meanwhile, Venezuela starter Enmanuel De Jesus kept things steady on the mound, allowing one run across five innings.

Arraez’s combination of contact and power drove an offensive outburst that produced 11 runs.

Chinese Taipei 14, Czechia 0

Chinese Taipei ran away with the most lopsided game of the day.

The turning point came in the second inning when Stuart Fairchild blasted a 389-foot grand slam, immediately putting the game out of reach.

But the real story was speed.

Chinese Taipei stole seven bases, setting a World Baseball Classic single-game record. The aggressive baserunning forced errors and constantly put Czechia’s defense under pressure.

Early in the game, a throwing error by the Czech catcher helped spark the offense.

On the mound, Taiwan used four pitchers, including starter Zhuang Chen-hao, who threw 2⅔ no-hit innings.

The combination of baserunning, timely hits, and Fairchild’s grand slam led to the 14–0 mercy-rule win.

Here we go again.

For the seventh time in Olympic history, the United States and Canada meet for women’s hockey gold.

All time at the Olympics, Canada leads 7 to 4. In gold medal games, Canada holds a 5 to 2 edge. Across all competitions, Canada owns a 106-87-1 record against the United States.

The United States has controlled this tournament from the opening puck drop. The Americans went undefeated in group play for the first time since 2010 and outscored opponents 20 to 1. That stretch included a 5 to 0 win over Canada to secure the top seed in Group A. They followed that with a quarterfinal win over Italy and another 5 to 0 shutout against Sweden in the semifinals. Through six games, they have dictated pace, won special teams, and limited defensive breakdowns.

The numbers back up the eye test. The Americans have recorded three shutouts. Aerin Frankel has not allowed a goal in 331 minutes and 23 seconds, the longest shutout streak in Olympic women’s hockey history. They roll four lines. They attack in waves. They do not spend much time defending.

Canada’s path has required more adjustments. Their opener was delayed, and captain Marie Philip Poulin missed most of the preliminary round with a lower body injury. Canada lost 5 to 0 to the United States in group play, a result that exposed gaps in transition and defensive coverage. After that loss, they responded with wins over Finland and Germany to reach the semifinals, then defeated Switzerland to book another meeting with their rivals.

Poulin returned and broke Hayley Wickenheiser’s Olympic women’s scoring record. Her presence changes the structure of Canada’s top line and power play. Daryl Watts has made the most of her first Olympic appearance, leading the team with eight points. Sarah Fillier and Julia Gosling have provided steady production, and the power play ranks first in the tournament. Canada has relied more on its younger core for offense while veterans such as Jocelyne Larocque, Erin Ambrose, and Natalie Spooner look to raise their level in the final.

This final will hinge on pace and discipline. The United States thrives when games open up, and shifts turn into track meets. Their defense joins the rush, and their forwards pressure turnovers high in the zone. Canada needs cleaner exits, stronger net front presence, and fewer penalties. They must limit odd-man rushes and force the Americans to play below the goal line.

The United States enters with more speed and deeper scoring. Canada enters with experience and a proven ability to deliver in gold medal moments. Last week’s result suggests a gap, though finals rarely mirror preliminary games.

Top Scorers

United States

• Caroline Harvey, 9 points
• Hannah Bilka, 7 points
• Megan Keller, 7 points
• Laila Edwards, 7 points
• Abbey Murphy, 7 points

Canada

• Daryl Watts, 8 points
• Sarah Fillier, 6 points
• Julia Gosling, 5 points
• Three players with 4 points

Expect a tighter contest. Expect more push from Canada. Still, the United States has controlled this matchup for months and brings the sharper form into Milan. The Americans hold the edge and are positioned to claim their first Olympic gold since 2018.

Puck drop is set for Thursday, Feb. 19, at 1:10 p.m. ET.

No other coverage today, and I apologize for that. You’ll be able to find the latest medal count here.

And that’s it for this one. What are your predictions for Day 15? Put them down in the comments below.

As always, if you have any questions about the Winter Olympics, thoughts on the coverage, or anything else, feel free to drop them in the comments or DM me. I’m always happy to answer questions.

I’ll be back tomorrow with what actually mattered.

This one centers on a fingertip and a hot mic.

Canada beat Sweden 8 to 6 in round robin play in Cortina. Late in the ninth end, Canadian curler Marc Kennedy told Sweden’s Oskar Eriksson to “f off.” The comment aired live.

The exchange followed repeated accusations from Sweden.

Swedish skip Niklas Edin said Kennedy touched the granite after releasing the handle. In curling, players must release the stone before the hog line. The handle has a sensor. Once the stone moves forward, you cannot touch the granite. If you do, officials remove the stone from play.

Edin said Kennedy double-touched more than once. He argued that even light pressure affects a 20-kilogram stone. Speed changes. Angle shifts.

On ice, officials said they did not see a violation. They made no call.

Kennedy denied cheating. He said he never tried to gain an advantage. He admitted he reacted poorly. He did not apologize.

World Curling stepped in the next day. The governing body restated the rule. During forward motion, touching the granite leads to removal of the stone. Officials issued a verbal warning to Canadian officials for the language on ice. They refused to use video replay to revisit earlier throws.

Online clips spread fast. Debate followed.

World Curling then assigned umpires to observe deliveries more closely. The policy lasted one day.

In a women’s match, Canada’s Rachel Homan had a stone removed for the same violation. Great Britain’s Bobby Lammie lost a stone in his match as well. Homan said she did not understand the call and felt her team had nothing to do with the earlier dispute.

By Sunday night, World Curling adjusted again. Officials would observe deliveries only if teams requested it.

You need to understand what this means for the sport.

Curling runs on the Spirit of Curling. Players call their own fouls. Teams respect opponents. You win through skill, not technical traps.

This episode exposed pressure points.

Olympic medals raise the stakes. Teams track small edges. Accusations shift from quiet talks between skips to public disputes.

If you follow curling, expect these next steps.

• More formal guidance on delivery monitoring
• Clearer penalties for double-touch violations
• Renewed debate on video replay in Olympic play
• Stronger emphasis on skip-to-skip communication before public claims

Canada kept the win. The standings did not change.

Trust took a hit.

The next time a stone crosses the hog line, you will see more eyes on the release.

No other coverage today, and I apologize for that. You’ll be able to find the latest medal count here.

And that’s it for this one. What are your predictions for Day 7? Put them down in the comments below.

As always, if you have any questions about the Winter Olympics, thoughts on the coverage, or anything else, feel free to drop them in the comments or DM me. I’m always happy to answer questions.

I’ll be back tomorrow with what actually mattered.

Milano has been no different. In fact, some of the biggest moments so far have belonged to athletes who, not that long ago, were juniors dreaming about this stage.

At just 17, Choi Gaon delivered one of the defining performances of these Games.

Up against two-time defending champion Chloe Kim in the women’s halfpipe final, the expectation was that experience would win out. Instead, it was resilience. After taking a heavy fall earlier in the contest, Choi climbed back up the pipe and threw down a third run that scored 90.25.

The Republic of Korea had never medaled in this event before. Now they have gold, and a 17-year-old who looks completely comfortable under Olympic pressure.

Hmmm. What about figure skating? It tends to follow a script. Favorites lead, contenders chase, and the podium usually reflects the season rankings.

Not this time.

Twenty-one-year-old Mikhail Shaidorov was not widely viewed as the man to beat in the men’s individual event. Then he skated the free program of his life.

By the end of the night, he was standing above the medal favorites with gold around his neck.

For Kazakhstan, it was their first Olympic gold in this discipline and their first Winter Games gold since 1994. For Shaidorov, it was a career-defining moment that arrived earlier than most expected.

We are not done.

When Abby Winterberger drops into the freeski halfpipe later in the Games, she will do so at just 15 years old. One of the youngest athletes in the entire field, competing on the biggest winter stage there is.

That is the theme of Milano so far. Athletes who are not waiting for their turn.

They are taking it.

And if this is what the present looks like, the future of the Winter Games is in very good hands.

Outlook (EST)

• 7:00 AM Snowboard: Women’s snowboard slopestyle final

• 7:45 AM Nordic combined: Men’s individual Gundersen large hill/10km (cross-country segment)

• 8:30 AM Biathlon: Men’s 4x7.5km relay

• 10:22 AM Speed skating: Men’s team pursuit medal finals

• 10:41 AM Speed skating: Women’s team pursuit medal finals

• 1:30 PM Freestyle skiing: Men’s freeski big air final

• 3:05 PM Bobsleigh: Two-man (heat 4)

Around the Games:

• Short-track speed skating: Xandra Velzeboer completed the 500m–1000m double with a dramatic 1000m gold (1:28.437), edging Courtney Sarault at the line and keeping the Netherlands perfect atop the short-track podium.

• Alpine skiing: Switzerland’s Loïc Meillard stayed composed through the chaos to win slalom gold in 1:53.61 after favorites Lucas Pinheiro Braathen and Atle Lie McGrath failed to finish.

• Ski jumping: Austria’s Jan Hoerl and Stephan Embacher claimed the inaugural men’s super team gold after heavy snow canceled the final round, locking in victory on round-two scores.

• Bobsleigh: Elana Meyers Taylor stormed from third to first on the final run to win women’s monobob gold at her fifth Olympics, finally securing the elusive top step.

• Freestyle skiing: Canada’s Megan Oldham captured women’s big air gold with 180.75, holding off Eileen Gu, who became the most decorated female Olympic freeski athlete with five medals.

• Figure skating: Japan’s Miura Riku and Kihara Ryuichi rallied from fifth after the short program to win their nation’s first Olympic pairs title.

• Ice hockey: The United States and Canada set up another women’s Olympic final, with Marie-Philip Poulin scoring twice to break the all-time Olympic women’s goals record.

And that’s it for this one. What are your predictions for Day 7? Put them down in the comments below.

As always, if you have any questions about the Winter Olympics, thoughts on the coverage, or anything else, feel free to drop them in the comments or DM me. I’m always happy to answer questions.

I’ll be back tomorrow with what actually mattered.

You could feel it before he even crossed the line.

When Johannes Hoesflot Klaebo grabbed the final leg of the 4 × 7.5 km relay, Norway already had control. But he didn’t ski like someone protecting a lead. He skied like someone trying to make a point.

No panic. No checking over his shoulder. Just smooth, clean power the entire way through.

By the final stretch, the gap was obvious. France wasn’t closing. Italy wasn’t closing. Nobody was. Norway won by 22.2 seconds, which in a relay at this level basically feels disrespectful.

And with that, Klaebo hit nine career Olympic gold medals.

Nine.

That moves him past Bjørn Dæhlie, Marit Bjørgen, and Ole Einar Bjørndalen. The names that used to define dominance at the Winter Games.

Today, it felt official. There’s no more debate about who owns this era.

That moment set the tone for the day.

What You Might’ve Missed

• Italy is quietly having its best Winter Olympics ever. When Lisa Vittozzi won the women’s 10 km pursuit, it pushed the host nation to a historic gold total. That kind of crowd energy matters late in a Games.

• The women’s large hill ski jumping event finally made its Olympic debut, and Anna Odine Stroem became the first champion ever. First champions hit differently because there’s no one before them.

• The first-ever skeleton mixed team gold went to Britain’s Matt Weston and Tabitha Stoecker. New events always shake up the medal map. Some countries adapt fast. Others don’t.

• In both biathlon pursuits, the final standing shoot decided everything. Not speed. Not endurance. Composure.

Medals, With Context

Federica Brignone

At 35, Federica Brignone just won her second gold of these Games, this time in giant slalom. On home snow. This isn’t a farewell tour. She’s controlling races.

Mikaël Kingsbury

For Mikaël Kingsbury, winning the first-ever Olympic dual moguls gold felt like checking off the last unfinished box. Not shocking. Just inevitable.

Femke Kok

An Olympic record in the women’s 500m. Femke Kok didn’t squeak by. She won by 0.66 seconds, which in speed skating is massive.

Martin Ponsiluoma

In the men’s biathlon pursuit, Martin Ponsiluoma stayed clean when Émilien Jacquelin didn’t. Two penalties. Gold gone. That’s the sport.

Today wasn’t chaos. It was stars delivering.

The Pressure Point

Here’s what matters now:

Is Klaebo done stacking history, or is double digits actually realistic before these Games end?

Because if nine is the new standard, the ceiling just moved again.

I’ll be back tomorrow with what actually mattered.

That’s a name that will live forever in South American Winter Olympics history.

With a stunning performance in the men’s giant slalom, Lucas Pinheiro Braathen delivered Brazil its first-ever medal at the Winter Olympics. Not only that, he became the first athlete from South America to stand on a Winter Games podium.

Let that sink in for a second.

Born and raised in Norway, Braathen previously competed under the Norwegian flag before switching allegiance to Brazil, his mother’s home country. The decision raised eyebrows at the time. Now, it looks visionary.

He posted a two-run combined time of 2:25.00, holding off Swiss superstar Marco Odermatt, who entered the event as the clear favorite. Odermatt finished in 2:25.58 and had to settle for silver. Fellow Swiss skier Loïc Meillard claimed bronze in 2:26.17.

“It’s a moment that’s hard to grasp, even though it’s crystal clear that you are officially the Olympic champion,” Braathen said afterward. “Even though I had such faith and I knew that this was written for me, it is still so incredible to live that dream turned reality. I couldn’t quite grasp it.”

And honestly, neither could anyone watching.

Brazil has competed in every Winter Olympics since 1992, but medals always felt like a distant dream. Before Braathen’s breakthrough, the country’s best result was a ninth-place finish by Isabel Clark in women’s snowboard cross at the 2006 Games.

This was different.

Braathen dominated the field. Only seven skiers finished within two seconds of his pace across both runs. He carried a slim advantage into his second run, and while there were a few nervous, slightly ragged turns down the stretch, he never lost control of the moment. He crossed the line 0.58 seconds ahead of Odermatt and made history.

For Brazil. For South America. For the sport.

This was a breakthrough.

Around the Games: What’s Up Next (EST)

• Biathlon – 5:15 AM

• Freestyle Skiing – 5:46 AM

• Cross-Country Skiing – 6:00 AM

• Alpine Skiing – 7:30 AM

• Snowboard – 8:35 AM

• Speed Skating – 11:03 AM

• Skeleton – 12:00 PM

• Ski Jumping – 1:57 PM

And that’s it for this one. What are your predictions for Day 7? Put them down in the comments below.

As always, if you have any questions about the Winter Olympics, thoughts on the coverage, or anything else, feel free to drop them in the comments or DM me. I’m always happy to answer questions.

I know I’m missing a section and missed the last couple of days. Super sorry about that. Hopefully, we can get a little consistency the rest of the way!

I’ll be back tomorrow with what actually mattered.