But I can’t write about Spain right now. I’ve tried. I keep coming back to a press conference instead.

Look, I want to be upfront with you. I’m not the guy who lives and dies with every soccer game. But I've watched Messi for a really long time, tearing through defenders twice his size. I've watched Ronaldo forever too. I know what greatness looks like when I see it.

I won’t pretend I’ve never seen anything like what happened after the final whistle. But for the first time, I felt so damn bad for a team I didn’t even support.

Messi broke down. A real breakdown. The kind of crying you do when your body just gives out because it can’t hold anything in anymore. And when you know what he’s been carrying through this entire tournament, while still being asked to lead a nation on his back at 39 years old, it’s gutting. His dad has been navigating an undisclosed health condition.

And if it gutted me, someone who watches this sport from the outside looking in, I genuinely cannot imagine what Argentine fans felt the night before last. Not the casual ones. The ones who grew up on this, and have loved this man since he was a teenager in Rosario nobody outside the country had heard of yet. The ones who painted murals of him on the sides of buildings before he’d won anything at all.

Then Scaloni sat down in front of the cameras.

And that’s when even Messi crying became… manageable… because somewhere in that room, this stopped being a story about a loss.

(THIS POST IS AVAILABLE IN 5 LANGUAGES. ENGLISH, SPANISH, ITALIAN, PORTUGUESE, AND FRENCH.)

Share Sports Square

If You Haven’t Watched This Presser, Stop Everything And Watch It

I’m not saying that as a trick. It’s because words on a page can’t fully get you there. You need to see his face. You need to hear the pauses. You need to watch a grown man, a World Cup coach, stop mid-sentence because he physically cannot get the words out.

Here’s what you need to understand. All tournament long, the noise around this Argentina team was ugly. The Egypt game turned into something that pretty much said, “Argentina. You’re cheating.”

Maybe we were part of the problem.

I piled on too. I ran hard with the Egypt controversy the same way a lot of the sports community did. Looking back at how this team competed, at what Scaloni said in that room with his voice cracking, I’m not so sure anymore.

Scaloni never threw a single bit of that back in anyone’s face. Not one shot at the officials. Not one shot at the reporters and fans who spent weeks trying to tear this group apart from the outside. He sat there, wrecked, and thanked people. His players, one by one. The fans who traveled. The federation. He talked about a group that gave what he called “the last effort” against a team that had the extra-man advantage for most of the second half. And then he said the word that’s been rattling around in my head ever since.

Guerreros. Warriors.

That’s a man who watched the people he loves get pushed past the edge of what should be humanly possible, and instead of looking for someone else to blame, he looked for someone to thank.

Near the end, someone asked him what he’s going to do next. He has a contract through December, and instead of giving the easy “of course I’m staying” answer every coach gives in that moment, he just told the truth. He said he needs to talk to the president. He said he feels the need to think, because he genuinely doesn’t know if he’s capable of doing something this big again. Then he thanked the president for allowing him to be in “that dreamed-of place,” and the room actually applauded him mid-sentence, and he tried to keep going through it.

And then he lost it completely.

He kept trying to describe the moment, called it maravilloso, maravilloso, wonderful, wonderful, and then just stopped. Sighed into the mic. Said he never in his life thought he, or any of the coaching staff, would end up somewhere like this. Said that to keep going, to try again, you need a lot of things, but mostly you need to reset and rebuild a group like this one, and a group like this one doesn’t come around twice.

Then, barely holding it together: “y me duele, me duele el alma.” It hurts, it hurts my soul.

Then: “Lo siento.” I’m sorry.

That’s it. That’s how he ended it. A World Cup coach apologizing to a room full of people, because he couldn’t find a way to say goodbye to something without his voice breaking in half.

Give a gift subscription

I still don’t fully know what to say about any of this. I’ve had a day to process this, but there’s still so much more to dig. But watching that room, watching a coach admit he’d already cried everything he had to cry back in the locker room so nobody would see him do it twice, watching him talk about needing real time just to think about whether he even has anything left to give this job, that’s the moment a guy like me, who doesn’t live and die by this sport, finally understood something.

Trophies get lifted. Confetti falls. That’s the part everyone remembers.

But what I keep coming back to isn’t the score. It’s a room full of people choosing gratitude when they had every reason in the world to choose bitterness instead.

Argentina didn’t win the World Cup. Watching that press conference again, though, I’m not convinced they lost much of anything that actually matters.

I want to hear your thoughts on this in the comments. For those who are waiting for us to get back to our usual programming here at Sports Square, we will begin very soon, and there’s a special piece awaiting!

Today is the day we find out who’s the greatest footballing nation on the planet. Spain vs. Argentina, MetLife Stadium, and every angle has already been covered to death.

But predictions are easy. The harder question, the one that actually tells you something, is which single moment or matchup this whole final is going to hinge on. So instead of just giving you my answer and calling it a day, I went and asked a few soccer writers I actually respect the same question:

What’s the one moment or matchup that decides this final?

I've done these roundups with 30+ writers before. This time I just wanted a handful of people whose takes I actually wanted to sit with.

Here’s what they said.

, Butterflies

Spain and Argentina have reached the final in very different ways. Spain is a machine with every player a cog in the wheel. Every pass is coordinated. Argentina is a scrappy little brother who thrives in chaos and always manages to get the older brother in a headlock.

All eyes will be on Lionel Messi and Lamine Yamal to see if they can produce moments of magic to separate the two sides. However, the two contrasting playing styles are what I’m most looking forward to.

Argentina were content to sit and clog the midfield when defending in the first half against England. Can Spain’s playmakers find the space to break through? Spain’s pressing has been phenomenal all tournament. Can Argentina get out and feed Messi in space?

If Argentina can make life difficult in the midfield, they may pull off the most entertaining World Cup run ever.

, The Swan Dive with Meg Swanick

The obvious answer is also the most likely: a thick cloud of smoke sent from Canada blinds Emi Martinez’ just as— just kidding. Much like he did against England, in his presumed (though unconfirmed) last World Cup, Lionel Messi will make the difference. Messi didn’t score Argentina’s late-game goals to beat the Three Lions 2-1, but he set up both of them, providing a pair of exquisite assists to help secure back-to-back World Cup final appearances. Whether Argentina falls behind first against Spain (whose press completely threw off Les Bleus) or get the first goal in New Jersey, my (perhaps unoriginal, but also very likely) guess is that Messi provides a spark when it matters, seeing Argentina to one last trophy before he (again, presumably) exits the grandest stage in world football.

, Thrill Shot

Spain versus game film. Thomas Tuchel said England would find a way to stop Messi, then parked the bus and watched two assists from the diminutive Argentine send the Three Lions home. Spain’s defense has allowed one goal this tournament. An extra day of rest plus three days to break down Argentina’s attack gives the reigning Europeans champions the chance to build an obstacle course to keep the tournament maestro in check, if that’s even possible.

, The 2026 Dispatch

For me this match comes down to Lamine Yamal. Spain has gotten to the final with a stellar defense and controlling the midfield, but Argentina has yet to score less than two goals this summer. If Yamal and Spain want to win, they’re going to have to come in prepared to attack throughout the game.

, The Sports Blueprint

Lionel Messi vs Lamine Yamal. One might call it a “Real Madrid fan’s worst nightmare”. The difference in this matchup will be Spain’s attack against Argentina’s back line. As impressive as Argentina have been (for the most part), they have looked very shaky in defense. The first game that comes to mind is their match against Egypt, where it looked like Egypt were going to score on almost every attack. Lionel Messi and Argentina have had a phenomenal run, but I don’t see how Argentina handles Spain’s possession-based attack in the Final.

, Sports Square

I’ve pretty much been saying the whole tournament that it’s the referees that are deciding everything… nope, I’m joking. The real matchup in this World Cup final is Spain’s width vs. Argentina’s full-backs. Spain have pretty much turned full-backs into bonus attackers throughout the tournament by using underlaps and overlaps to get an extra man wide, then flooding the box on the cutback.

And guess what? Argentina have literally leaked chances from those zones. Five of the seven goals they’ve conceded have come from poor defending in wide areas.

If Spain wants to win, the real question is: can those wide overloads isolate and beat Argentina’s full-backs without getting killed in transition? If Argentina wants to win, it’s: can they protect those full-backs well enough to survive Spain’s wing/half-space rotations until the forwards flip a few transitions into goals?

This final is more about whether Argentina can survive their weak point long enough to win.

Subscribe to everyone above. See you on the other side of this final.

France vs. England. Hard Rock Stadium. The third-place match. It needs to go.

I love this tournament, but this specific game, the one FIFA insists on cramming in 24 hours before the actual final, is one of the dumbest traditions left in sports.

FIFA adopted it in 1934, and it’s been permanent at every World Cup since 1954. Almost a century of making two teams that just had their hearts ripped out play a bonus round for a medal literally nobody grew up dreaming about.

UEFA had the same format for the Euros and got rid of it after 1980. Forty-six years ago. If Europe’s own governing body decided this wasn’t worth doing for its own tournament, I genuinely don’t understand why FIFA is still doing it for the biggest one in the sport.

Louis van Gaal basically said all of this out loud already, way back in 2014: “This match should never be played, I’ve been saying that for 10 years.” And then his Netherlands team went out and won the thing 3-0 against a Brazil team that was still in actual shock from losing 7-1 to Germany days before.

Managers know it too, which is honestly the funniest part. First-choice starters get benched across the board. Backup keepers start. In 2014, the Dutch brought on their actual third-choice goalkeeper with basically no time left just so he could say he played in a World Cup. And there hasn't been a single third-place game with fewer than two total goals since 1974.

This year’s version comes with $2 million in extra prize money attached, in the most physically brutal World Cup format we’ve ever had: 48 teams and 104 total matches. It’s a feast for us fans, but not for the players on the field. The 3rd place team gets $30 million USD, and the 4th place team gets $28 million USD. $2 million USD is still a big difference, just not for these guys.

To be fair, not everybody hates it. Kyle Walker defended the fixture back in 2018, said it was “still something massively to play for,” bragging rights, proof you’re the third-best team on the planet. Fine, I respect that he found something in it. But one player finding meaning doesn’t cancel out the actual injury risk FIFA is putting on a bunch of gassed athletes. The NBA doesn’t make its conference finals losers play for third. Neither does the Champions League. They’re doing just fine.

I get why FIFA keeps it. It’s another broadcast slot, another sponsor package, a few more million squeezed out of a tournament already printing money. But you have to ask what exactly you’re optimizing for at that point, because it’s not the players, and it’s not really the sport either.

France and England will go out today, play a game that decides nothing, take on injury risk for no real reason, and by tomorrow morning almost nobody will remember what the score even was. Meanwhile, the actual final kicks off 24 hours later like this detour never happened at all.

Ninety-two years is enough. FIFA already got the memo from UEFA decades ago. Let the semifinal losers go home with some dignity instead of one more game nobody asked for.

I wanna hear your thoughts on this in the comments below.

Special piece coming out tomorrow, people. Be ready.

It’s funny. Normally that’s where a story like this ends.

Except that baby is Lamine Yamal. And Sunday, he’s lining up against the guy who bathed him. For the actual World Cup.

Here’s how that photo came to be.

People keep treating this like it was written in the stars somewhere, and honestly, the real version is funnier. It was a raffle.

Barcelona and UNICEF put together a charity calendar back in 2007, working with the local paper Diario Sport. Families around Mataró, a working-class city outside Barcelona, could enter for a shot at getting photographed with a Barca player. A family from the Rocafonda neighborhood won. Whoever was running the thing paired them with a young winger who’d just started cracking the first team.

You already know his name. The baby they brought, five months old, did not have a name anybody knew yet.

Messi genuinely had no idea what to do with him. Joan Monfort, the photographer who shot it, remembers it about how you’d picture it. “At the start, there was not much interaction,” he said. Messi walks out of the locker room expecting a normal photo op, and instead there’s a plastic tub full of water waiting for him with a baby in it. He just kind of rolled with it, and somewhere in there somebody got the shot everyone’s seen: Messi cradling Yamal in a towel, Yamal’s mom Sheila Ebana standing close by just in case things went sideways.

Then nobody thought about it again for seventeen years.

Fast forward to the 2024 Euros. There’s a 16-year-old winger out of Barcelona’s academy absolutely torching the tournament, becomes the youngest player and youngest scorer in Euros history, Spain wins the whole thing. That’s Yamal.

His dad posted the old photo during the run. Captioned it “the beginning of two legends.” That was basically it.

Even Monfort didn’t clock who the baby was until a former colleague told him it was blowing up online. “Nobody could imagine that this baby would be who he is now,” he said, and yeah, fair. Yamal’s still repping Rocafonda too, still throws up the 304 hand sign every time he scores, a nod to his old postal code. His dad’s from Morocco, his mom’s from Equatorial Guinea.

Trevor Noah brought it up on his World Cup watch party and put it about as well as anyone. “It’s crazy that it’s real. Imagine this moment.” Two guys who once shared bathwater, now sharing a World Cup.

Yamal turned 19 on Monday. The next day, he won the penalty, which his teammate Oyarzabal converted, sending Spain past France and into Sunday’s final. One day after that, in Atlanta, 39-year-old Messi did his usual thing: Argentina down 1-0 to England with the clock dying, and he set up both goals in the final seven minutes to drag his team through too.

When somebody showed Yamal the photo again after Spain clinched their spot, he just smiled. What else are you supposed to do?

I don’t want to oversell this into some grand old-king-new-king thing, because it’s not quite that clean. Messi isn’t handing anything over just by sharing a field with Yamal. And Yamal doesn’t need Messi’s blessing for anything; he’s already the youngest Ballon d’Or nominee ever. This final isn’t proving his case because his case is already made.

That photo is nineteen years old. "The beginning of two legends," his dad called it when he finally posted it. Sunday, we find out who actually gets to finish that sentence.

GAME PREVIEW AND MORE OUT TOMORROW!

Egypt takes it 15 minutes in, Ibrahim rising above everybody. Messi misses a penalty. Shoubir turns into a wall for the next half hour, no goal. Then in the 58th minute Zico breaks away and buries it. 2-0 Egypt, first World Cup knockout win in 92 years feeling closer than ever.

Wiped off the board. VAR goes back to the start of the move, finds a foul on the opposite side of the pitch, and Egypt’s second goal is gone, technically inside the rules. Try telling that to a bench that just watched a knockout goal disappear.

Nine minutes later, Zico scores again. A different goal. A real one this time. 2-0 for real.

You getting this? Egypt didn’t get denied a duplicate. They got denied a completely separate goal. If that first Zico strike stands, Egypt is now 3-0 on the defending champions. Not 2-0. Three.

Now let’s be real about what happened after that, because Messi and Argentina deserve every bit of credit for it. Down 2-0 with time running out, Argentina didn’t fold. Romero climbs above everybody to head one back. Messi rips an equalizer with the composure of a guy who’s done this a hundred times, his 21st career World Cup goal. Fernandez heads in from the box in the second minute of stoppage time to finish it. Three goals in thirteen minutes against a team that had them dead and buried. That’s one of the great World Cup comebacks, and Messi and this Argentina team earned every ounce of the praise they’re getting for it.

But here’s what you can’t separate from that comeback. Right before Fernandez’s winner, Mac Allister grabs a fistful of Hamdy Fathy’s shirt in the box. Fathy goes down. No whistle. No review sent to the screen. Ball’s in the net thirty seconds later.

Argentina didn't ask for that. Doesn't matter. Egypt's camp says it never got a proper look, no review sent to the screen. FIFA's own officiating record says otherwise, that it was checked and waved off as clean. Either way, it happened in the exact sequence that produced the winner. Add it to the disallowed goal that would've made it 3-0, and you understand why Egypt walked off that field convinced both of the biggest moments in their history got decided by a screen, not a whistle.

Hossam Hassan didn’t do the polite postgame thing. He walked in and said it straight: “We have been cheated unfairly today, we have suffered injustice.” Then said he’s done watching this World Cup. Full stop, not another game.

Zico came off in tears and didn’t dress it up either. Called it rigged. Said it flat out on camera.

Hassan went further than that too. Wondered out loud if officials were under pressure to keep Messi and Argentina alive in the tournament. Told the ref on the way off he might have “something to hide.” That’s not a coach being a sore loser, but one who watched the two biggest calls of the match go against him in the stretch that decided everything.

Now let’s talk about the guy running the show, because Tuesday didn’t happen in a vacuum.

Gianni Infantino has been FIFA president for ten years, and the receipts on how he got there and how he’s run it since would make your head spin. He climbed into power in 2016 promising to clean up an organization where the previous regime got taken down by an FBI corruption probe, indictments, guilty pleas, the whole thing. His pitch was reform. Within his first term, he’d already been named in the Panama Papers and investigated for his own FIFA ethics code violations.

That was just the start. He spent the 2018 World Cup in Russia cozying up to Putin at matches and official events, and a year later flew back to Moscow where Putin personally handed him Russia’s Order of Friendship. Heading into Qatar 2022, he stood up in front of the world’s media and brushed off years of human rights criticism, including the deaths of migrant workers who built the stadiums, by making the moment about his own experience of being judged instead of theirs. Then in 2024 he pushed through a process that handed the 2034 World Cup to Saudi Arabia as the only bidder, after FIFA restructured the voting so there was effectively no competition. Human rights groups called it out immediately. Infantino moved on as if nothing happened.

That’s the pattern with this guy. It’s not about which side of the aisle somebody’s on; he’ll cozy up to whoever’s holding power at the moment. Putin got an award ceremony in the Kremlin. Saudi Arabia got a World Cup with no real bidding process. And this year he created a brand new FIFA Peace Prize and handed the first one to President Trump, then showed up late to a FIFA Congress in Paraguay because he was busy touring the Middle East with him, which got UEFA officials to actually walk out of the room in protest. Different leaders, different countries, same move every time. Fast forward to now and the guy makes six million dollars a year, flies around on a jet provided by the state of Qatar, and keeps some of the most powerful people in the world on speed dial. Even Sepp Blatter, his own disgraced predecessor, said out loud that not one of FIFA’s 211 member federations will publicly challenge him anymore.

That’s the guy in charge when a red card suspension got lifted for an American player days ago, after a call went straight to Infantino himself. Yes, I understand that that definitely was not a red card, but even then, a red card has never been overruled EVER in a World Cup. UEFA called the reversal unprecedented. Belgium filed a formal protest. There’s a letter with 35 European lawmakers on it right now demanding an actual investigation into whether outside political pressure decided who gets to play in this World Cup.

Share Sports Square

Nobody’s saying Infantino picked up a phone and told a referee in Atlanta what to do. There’s no reporting that says that happened, and this piece isn’t claiming it did. What there is: a documented pattern of a FIFA president who keeps letting outside pressure and political access shape decisions inside his tournament, one confirmed case of it happening days ago, and now a fanbase that watched two of the biggest moments in their country’s football history get decided by a screen instead of a whistle. You don’t need a smoking gun to ask why a sport that’s supposed to run on fairness keeps having its biggest calls break the same direction under this commissioner’s watch.

Egypt’s players weren’t overwhelmed out there either, for what it’s worth. Shoubir saved a penalty from an eight-time Ballon d’Or winner and kept making saves for an hour straight. Most of that starting eleven plays in their own domestic league. They had the world champions on the ropes with a squad that isn’t supposed to be in the same building as Argentina, let alone up three goals on them.

Salah’s already locked in as Egypt’s captain through 2030, so this story keeps going. But this specific run, the one that finally broke a 92-year knockout curse, is over.

Argentina moves on with a legendary comeback attached to their name, and they earned that. Gianni Infantino runs the sport that decided the rest of it. He owes Egypt an answer either way.

This isn’t a normal Round of 16 matchup. It’s a physiology problem wearing a football jersey, and it’s about to get tested.

Start with the air itself. At 2,241 meters, air pressure drops to about 77% of sea level, which means every breath England’s players take is delivering roughly a quarter less oxygen than what their bodies are used to. That may not show up on their first sprint, but it for sure begins to pile up and affect them later on in the game when it matters most. Thomas Tuchel’s (Manager of the England National Team) whole system runs on winning the ball back fast and going again immediately. Tonight that engine is running on less fuel than it’s ever run on.

He’s not spinning it either. He said flat out this week that three days isn’t enough time to adapt, and the science backs him up worse than he’d probably like: the three-to-five day window after landing is actually the peak window for altitude symptoms, headaches, broken sleep, dead legs. England is walking into their biggest match of the tournament right in the middle of that window, not before it and not after it.

Mexico doesn’t have a window. They live at this altitude, and it shows up in the numbers: two losses in 89 competitive matches at the Azteca. Not two this year. Two ever. Against everybody who’s come through that building with a game plan and left without one.

Go back to 1970 for a second, because this isn’t a new trick. Brazil needed a Pele at the absolute peak of his powers to win it there, and even that team talked afterward about how heavy their legs felt by the second half of every match. Argentina in ‘86 had Maradona pulling off two of the most famous moments in World Cup history in the same afternoon, and they still needed extra time in the final to close it out. By the way, for my fellow non-soccer fans, these weren’t average teams getting worn down. These were two of the greatest sides ever assembled, and the building still made them work for it.

Then factor in the ball. Thinner air means less drag, and less drag means the ball moves faster than what a defense trained at sea level is calibrated to read. Crosses carry longer. Shots dip less than a keeper expects. This stadium has been exposing goalkeepers to flight and spin for decades, and England’s back four is about to find that out live, tonight, in real time, against a Mexico attack that’s been playing in this air all tournament. Roberto Alvarado already has more assists than any Mexican player on record at a single World Cup, and he’s been getting his service in from exactly the kind of delivery that plays differently at this elevation.

There’s also the recovery piece. Hydration and nutrition protocols change completely at altitude because your body is working overtime just to function, let alone perform. England’s sports science staff has had three days to adjust travel, sleep, and recovery. You can hydrate better. You can time your meals better. You cannot manufacture oxygen that isn’t there. Every team that’s tried to out-prepare this stadium with a better spreadsheet has eventually run into the same wall Tuchel is talking about.

England hasn’t set foot in the Azteca since 1986, and their typical home stadiums only sit at 401 feet. If England wants to walk out of Mexico City alive tonight, the answer is patience over pressing. Slow it down, keep the ball, strike when the moment’s actually there instead of chasing one that isn’t. Don’t get baited into playing Mexico’s tempo just because the crowd is loud and the clock feels urgent. The teams that survive this building were never the most talented ones in the room. They’re the ones who respected the air before they respected the opponent standing in front of them.

Forget the matchup-by-matchup breakdown for a second. Let’s talk about who has looked like a genuine threat to lift this thing, based on what we’ve actually seen with our own eyes through four weeks of soccer.

On a side note, Happy Fourth to all of my folks in the US.

16. Paraguay

Lost to the US 4-1. Lost to Türkiye 1-0. Drew Australia 0-0. That’s the group stage, and it’s genuinely rough, good enough to advance as a third-place team on goal difference and nothing more. Then they shocked Germany on penalties in the Round of 32 with only 25 percent possession, watching three different Germans miss spot kicks in front of them. This is the purest underdog story left in the bracket.

15. Switzerland

Drew Qatar 1-1 in the group stage, a result that should worry anyone taking this team seriously, then beat Algeria 2-0 to reach the knockouts. Organized and disciplined, but there’s a real gap between “functional” and “good,” and Switzerland hasn’t shown much evidence they’re the second one yet.

14. Colombia

Held Portugal to a scoreless draw in the group stage, which says more about their defense than any highlight reel could, then took care of business against Ghana to reach the Round of 16. Thirteenth in the world and about as unglamorous as a good team can be. Nobody’s talking about Colombia right now. That’s usually right before Colombia makes people talk about Colombia.

13. Egypt

Drew Belgium 1-1, drew Iran 1-1, beat New Zealand, then drew Australia 1-1 before escaping on penalties in the Round of 32. Mohamed Salah is capable of a moment that changes a whole match by himself. The problem is how many draws are stacking up around him. A team built on individual brilliance and defensive stalemates is dangerous exactly once, and only if the brilliance actually shows up when it matters.

12. Canada

Drew Bosnia and Herzegovina in the group stage, then delivered the first knockout stage win in program history with a 1-0 result over South Africa. That’s a genuinely massive night for Canadian soccer. It’s also worth saying plainly: this roster hasn’t proven it can hang with a true heavyweight yet, and Morocco, a team that’s already been to a World Cup semifinal, is exactly that test.

11. Belgium

Drew Egypt 1-1, drew Iran 0-0, then needed a 5-1 blowout of New Zealand just to look like themselves again. That’s an uneven group stage from a team that’s supposed to have this figured out by now. Then, somehow, the golden generation found one more trick: down two goals late against Senegal, they forced extra time and won 3-2 on a controversial penalty. Inspiring. Also a little concerning that they needed a miracle against a team that isn’t among the tournament’s best.

10. Mexico

You’re probably extremely surprised to see Mexico so low.

Here’s the truth. They had a perfect group stage as co-hosts: beat South Africa, beat South Korea, then blew out Czechia 3-0 to close it out, genuinely one of the form teams of this tournament through three games. Backed that up with a clean 2-0 win over Ecuador in the Round of 32. The concern isn’t form; it’s ceiling. Everything so far has come against teams outside the true elite tier, and England in Mexico City is the first real gut check. However, Mexico has a huge advantage in that game, and it’s not because of the fans or whatnot. It’s actually an element that many are missing in the Azteca. Article on that tomorrow!

9. England

Beat Croatia 4-2 in an opener that had some genuinely calamitous defending on both ends, then drew 0-0 with Ghana in a performance bad enough that British papers were writing “panic time” headlines. Beat Panama to close the group, then needed a second-half Harry Kane brace just to come from behind and beat DR Congo in the Round of 32. Fourth in the world on paper. Fourth in vibes is a different conversation entirely.

8. USA

Beat Paraguay 4-1 to open, handled Australia, then lost a dead-rubber group finale to Türkiye 3-2 that meant nothing. Then came the real number: their first knockout stage win since 2002, a 2-0 result over Bosnia and Herzegovina, earned despite playing a chunk of the match down a man after a red card (god FIFA… we have to fix this). That’s a genuine milestone. It’s also one win. Belgium is a real step up from Bosnia, and we still don’t know what this team looks like against a true contender with everything on the line. And, reminder, Balogun is suspended from this game because of the red card. He’s the top scorer in the World Cup this year for the USMNT.

7. Brazil

Carlo Ancelotti has them playing actual soccer again after drawing Morocco 1-1 to open the group stage. Casemiro and Gabriel Martinelli stepped up in the Round of 32 win over Japan instead of the team leaning entirely on Vinícius Júnior, which is exactly the kind of depth a five-time champion needs. The drought since 2002 sits over every game they play, and it gets louder every round they survive. Erling Haaland and Norway are the next test of whether this team is actually different or just better than a weak group.

6. Morocco

Four games, zero losses, and a penalty shootout win over the Netherlands that never let them panic. This is the same core that reached the 2022 semifinal, and instead of that being lightning in a bottle, they’re building an actual case that it wasn’t. The knock is that a lot of these results have been draws and shootouts rather than statement wins. Nobody’s been blown out yet. Nobody’s been blown out either. That’s a fine line to live on.

5. Norway

Erling Haaland has four goals in two matches and looks bored doing it. Martin Ødegaard is running midfield the way only a handful of players alive can. That’s the case for the top five. Here’s the case against it: they lost 4-1 to France in the group stage, which means the defense in front of Haaland can be picked apart by a team that’s actually good. Beating Ivory Coast in the Round of 32 doesn’t answer that question. The next opponent might.

4. Portugal

Drew DR Congo 1-1 in the group stage in a result ESPN said the opponent fully earned. Then thumped Uzbekistan 5-0 to remind everyone what this roster is capable of. Ronaldo finally got his first-ever World Cup knockout goal against Croatia, on a penalty, in a tournament that might be his last. Deep roster, proven big-game players, but the Ronaldo selection question hovers over every single match they play.

Share Sports Square

3. Argentina

Messi tied, then broke, the men’s World Cup goals record, and he’s now scored in eight straight World Cup matches, a record nobody else can touch. That’s the résumé. Here’s the other side of it. They needed extra time and a deflected own goal just to get past Cape Verde, a team ranked 67th in the world, and CBS called the performance lackluster and complacent. Talent covers for a lot. It’s not covering for everything anymore.

2. Spain

Group winners, but it wasn’t pretty. They needed a goalkeeping blunder from Uruguay just to scrape out a 1-0 win, and their center forward situation has looked toothless without a real number nine to lean on. Then they went and hung four on Saudi Arabia and three on Austria, so the talent clearly shows up when the matchups are favorable. Unai Simón in goal is the shakiest link on a genuine title contender. That’s a real problem the deeper this goes.

1. France

Perfect group stage. Beat Senegal, demolished Iraq, then put four past Norway. Rolled Sweden 3-0 in the Round of 32 without ever looking stressed. Kylian Mbappé is playing like a man with something to prove after the 2022 final, and this is Didier Deschamps’ last tournament as manager. The one real question is what happens the first time this team has to chase a game instead of dictate one. So far, nobody’s made them find out.

Share

One more thing before we go.

Cape Verde isn’t in the Round of 16. We need to talk about them anyway.

A country of roughly 500,000 people. Ranked 67th in the world. Playing in their first-ever World Cup. They drew Spain 0-0. They drew Uruguay 2-2. They drew Saudi Arabia 0-0. They were the only debutant nation of the four in this tournament, out of Curaçao, Jordan, Uzbekistan, and themselves, to actually get out of the group stage.

Then they drew Argentina. The defending champions. The number one team in the world. Lionel Messi, playing what’s likely his final World Cup, has been unstoppable all tournament, and Cape Verde had every reason to fold.

They didn’t.

Messi scored in the 29th minute, and Cape Verde could have packed it in right there. Instead, Deroy Duarte leveled it in the 59th. Argentina went ahead again in extra time off a Lisandro Martínez strike. Cape Verde answered again, and this time it wasn’t just a goal; it was Sidny Lopes Cabral curling one in from the edge of the box that people are already calling the greatest goal in the history of Cape Verdean football. Down two separate times against the world’s best team, in extra time of a World Cup knockout game, and they answered both.

It ended on a deflection. Cristian Romero’s header caught a touch off Diney Borges and snuck past goalkeeper Vozinha, who had already made eight saves in the match trying to keep his country’s dream alive. Own goal. Final whistle. Argentina 3, Cape Verde 2.

Cape Verde produced 0.45 expected goals in that match. Argentina produced 2.16. The numbers say it wasn’t close. The scoreline says it was. That’s soccer sometimes. That’s this team, all tournament.

They’re flying home now. Argentina moves on to face Egypt. But if this World Cup is remembered for one thing that has nothing to do with the eventual champion, let it be this. A nation you could fit inside Rhode Island took the best team on Earth to the brink, twice, in the same night. Nobody circles Cape Verde as a contender walking into a World Cup. Everybody will remember them walking out.

Sixteen teams are still alive. One team that isn’t might end up being the story of the whole tournament.

The 2nd day of the 2026 World Cup Round of 32 just delivered the most violent two days of giant-killing this tournament has seen. The story is that the four-time champions Germany are out, the Netherlands are out, and this tournament has completely changed shape in 48 hours.

Let’s get into it.

Germany is not a first-class team anymore. Their coach literally said it.

You don’t get a quote like this very often. Julian Nagelsmann, standing in the wreckage of a penalty shootout loss to Paraguay, said, out loud: Germany is no longer a “first-class team.” That’s the manager saying it himself, by the way.

And the way they lost makes it worse. Kai Havertz missed. Nick Woltemade missed. Jonathan Tah missed. Three Germans stepped up in a shootout against Paraguay, a team that had finished third in their group, and three Germans failed. This is Germany. Four World Cups. A program built on never, ever losing the moments that matter. And on Monday, in Boston, in front of the world, that identity just evaporated.

This isn’t a one-off. This is a program that has now been knocked out early in three of the last four World Cups. 2018, group stage. 2022, group stage. 2026, first knockout round, to a team many casual fans couldn’t find on a map before this summer. That’s a pattern. And patterns don’t lie, even when the manager is the one calling it out.

The Dutch just lived out their worst nightmare. Again.

If Germany’s exit was a gut punch, the Netherlands’ was almost poetic in how predictable it felt if you know the history. The Oranje hadn’t lost a World Cup match in regulation since 2010. Ten wins, five draws, over fifteen years of never folding when the clock is running. But when the Dutch lose, they lose late. They lost to Argentina on penalties in the 2014 semifinal. They lost to Argentina on penalties again in the 2022 quarterfinal. And now, against Morocco, in extra time, on penalties, it happened a third time.

This team did everything right to get here. They breezed through the group, didn’t lose a single competitive match in regulation, and looked like the best attacking side outside of the obvious contenders. Cody Gakpo was electric on the left wing all tournament, scoring through circumstances that frankly go beyond soccer. And it still wasn’t enough, because when the moment came down to nerve and a coin flip dressed up as a shootout, the Dutch did the Dutch thing. Again.

There’s a deeper conversation here about whether this is now just who the Netherlands are at World Cups: brilliant, attacking, technically gifted, and fundamentally cursed when it matters most. Three penalty exits across three different tournaments is an identity.

Meanwhile, the “smaller” nations are just playing better soccer.

While two of the sport’s historical superpowers were packing their bags, the teams everybody wrote off kept finding ways to survive. Canada beat South Africa to become a co-host nation, reaching the knockouts for the first time. Cape Verde, a nation with a population smaller than most NFL stadiums hold, is still alive and now gets Argentina. Nine African nations made the Round of 32, the most in history for the continent.

Morocco just beat a Netherlands team with actual quality, not just defensive resilience. Paraguay didn’t sneak past Germany. They earned it, in regulation, in extra time, and in the shootout, against a team that’s supposed to be unbeatable in moments like that.

The expanded 48-team format is exposing something more uncomfortable for soccer giants: the gap has closed.

So what does this mean?

Two of the tournament’s most decorated programs are home before the Round of 16 even finishes. That changes things. Brazil, Argentina, France, Spain, and England are still the obvious favorites, but the margin for error just got smaller for every single one of them. Why? Because if Germany can lose to a third-place qualifier, then nobody left in this bracket should feel safe.

The giants got bounced because in 2026, “giant” doesn’t mean what it used to. The gap is closing.

That’s how long Brazil has gone without lifting the World Cup. Five stars on that crest and the newest one is older than half the guys wearing it. By Saturday night, we will see if we will be talking about Brazil in a very different conversation. Because Brazil opens against Morocco, and in all honesty, this might be the most loaded “group stage opener” of the entire tournament.

Here’s the thing about Morocco though. They’re not the cute underdog story anymore. 2022 semifinalists. Only African team to go 8-for-8 in qualifying. Beat Brazil in a friendly back in 2023. Achraf Hakimi and Brahim Díaz aren’t here to lose graciously and get a nice writeup about “growing the game.”

Brazil is favored, sure, -145 on the moneyline, but Neymar is ruled out with a calf injury and that changes the entire shape of how Ancelotti’s group attacks. Vinícius and Raphinha (13 goals, 3 assists in La Liga this season, by the way) carry a lot of weight in this one. If Brazil stumbles here, against this Morocco, on Day 3? The “what’s wrong with this golden generation” pieces write themselves, and we’ll be reading them for two more weeks.

And here’s why the timing makes it worse for Brazil: the tournament just showed everyone what a statement looks like.

Subscribe now

USA 4-1 Paraguay. On U.S. soil, first time in three decades. Folarin Balogun scored twice, including a one-on-two finish to end the first half that you need to go watch right now if you haven’t. First USMNT brace at a World Cup since 1930. The guy chose USA over England and Nigeria back in 2023, his family was in the stands, and he just delivered the loudest possible answer to anyone questioning that decision. Gio Reyna capped it with a trivela in stoppage time. 63% possession, 17 shots to 8. That’s not a nervy opener, that’s a team that looked completely at home in a moment that size.

Compare that to Canada, who needed a goal from their bench to even get on the scoreboard. Jovo Lukić put Bosnia ahead off a corner in the first half, and Canada (without Alphonso Davies, their best player) spent most of the match chasing the game. Then Cyle Larin comes on, and 121 seconds, that’s it, 121 seconds later he’s spinning away from a deflected finish that ties it at 1-1. First-ever World Cup point for Canada. First time on home soil. The underlying numbers say they deserved it (1.25 xG to 0.98), but it still took a moment of bench magic to get there.

So that’s the gap we’re talking about heading into the weekend. One co-host looked like a contender from minute one. The other co-host had to dig for a point against a Bosnia side that didn’t even need to start Edin Dzeko. And now Brazil, the most decorated nation in World Cup history, steps into Saturday carrying the weight of a 24-year drought against a team that’s made a habit of embarrassing favorites.

Brazil-Morocco is the headline, but Saturday has layers. Qatar gets a redemption shot against Switzerland after going 0-3 as hosts in 2022, and Switzerland (Granit Xhaka still running the show, Breel Embolo waiting in behind) are the better side on paper but Qatar at a World Cup again is its own story regardless of result. Then Haiti and Scotland close the day, two countries with absurd gaps since their last appearances (1974 for Haiti, 1998 for Scotland) both needing this game to mean something for their group hopes.

Share

And right as Saturday ends, Day 4 sneaks in. Australia vs. Turkey opens Group D at midnight, the same group USA just blew the doors off of. Whoever wins that game already knows what’s waiting for them.

Two days in, and we’ve got a co-host breakthrough, a historic USMNT performance, and now the most storied program in World Cup history staring down its longest trophy drought against a team that genuinely believes it can ruin the party. Saturday’s going to be loud.

This moment doesn’t stand alone in the “key blunders by Victor” category. He missed two clutch free throws in Game 4, shot pi day (3/14) in the second half of that same game, and had 10 combined turnovers in Games 1 and 2. Combine that with unnecessarily physical fouls and lots of talking he wasn’t able to back up, and you have a surprisingly human series from the alien.

Key note: none of this is to rag on Wemby. I want to see him succeed. Badly. He’s overall had a great first playoff run with plenty of highlights. A 40-point, 20-rebound game, a record for playoff blocks in a game, and just being a two-way menace. He will always be a positive contributor on defense because most players don’t want to challenge him. Except Jose Alvarado, for some reason. That’s all to say: he can be the best player in the world, but right now he’s not there.

Not to get in his head, but against this tough Knicks defense, he has struggled mightily. The Knicks are doing a masterful job of restricting Victor’s easy paint touches and forcing him into self-creation buckets. A lot of the time, he’s settling for tough 3’s, which he’s missing. When he’s self-creating, he’s not putting that much pressure on the defense. He’s getting worn out quicker, getting more gassed, and that leads to key mistakes in the clutch. Less pressure also means harder shots and fewer chances to run up the score.

To simplify it further: when the man DOES get the ball in the post from a teammate, amazing things happen. It creates open shooters, driving lanes, and closeout opportunities. The only game San Antonio won? Wemby took 18 shots, only 4 of those being 3’s. He splashed 2 of them, but the other 14 shots came from inside the free throw line besides 1. Castle was lobbing him, he was getting clean layups, and when that wasn’t an option, he kicked it out for 6 assists. That led to a win.

Looking at the first half of Game 4, that same theme continued. Then, when the shooters started hitting, it looked like the game was over. So how did they lose Game 4? In the second half, there were 6 of 14 shots outside the paint, making 2. That number of outside attempts is inflated by his many, many failed tip-in attempts, but he was getting to the hole. Add in those missed clutch free throws, the Pi Day shooting line, and a game that ended with just 1 assist, and you’ve got the blueprint for a collapse.

Well, what about Fox doing his best JR Smith impression and Mitch Johnson’s coaching pitfalls? Those are real factors in losing the game, but to say Wemby is not at fault at all is just a lie. He wants that pressure, and he even says himself that he’s the one to take the blame. He’s putting a lot of this on himself, which we should all respect since he is the Spurs’ best player. When he’s playing well, his impact can break open the game. If that’s not happening, it just makes the game harder for everybody around him.

Being a leader in its most simple sense is both saying and doing. If you’re going to take the responsibility, it’s on you to play your best. Wemby has to make quick decisions, hunt mismatches, and use his size to his advantage in the paint. Some of that is coaching, some of that is how he wants to play that game. And that’s what can win San Antonio games. And if you’re going to say “I’m in your head” and play the KG mental warfare game (I don’t think Vic is talking about dead moms yet, though), you have to back that up. Don’t let your opponents make the biggest comeback in Finals history as you choke. Simple as that.

This is undoubtedly the toughest matchup Wembanyama has faced all postseason. Not only a revitalized Karl-Anthony Towns who plays... good defense?... but a strong wing group who can defend well like OG and Hart, who have kept him in check these 4 games.

Not to act as the great Kenny Atkinson here, but the San Antonio Spurs are down 1-3 when they could’ve just as easily been up 3-1. Box score-wise, Wemby is having a great series, but he’s not playing at his best. If he’s able to replicate his Game 3 and create those easy opportunities for his teammates, it gives them their best shot to come back.

None of that matters if his team lets him down this Saturday. And if the eggs New Yorkers threw at him actually got to his head.

Day 2 is different. Today, the spotlight shifts to the other two co-hosts, and both of them are walking into something MUCH deeper than what they’re thinking.

(FOR THOSE THAT DIDN’T WATCH THE GAMES FROM DAY 1, QUICK RECAP AT THE END OF THE ARTICLE.)

Canada has never won a World Cup game. Ever.

Canada is 0-6 across their appearances in 1986 and 2022. Zero wins. Six losses. That’s the entire history of Canadian men’s soccer at this tournament, and now they’re opening their first-ever home World Cup against Bosnia and Herzegovina at BMO Field in Toronto.

This is supposed to be a feel-good story. Home crowd, first-ever host nation appearance, and a golden opportunity to finally get on the board. This is genuinely a lifetime opportunity for Canada to score their first World Cup points.

But here’s why it isn’t. Alphonso Davies is officially ruled out. Jesse Marsch confirmed it himself. Davies is healing well from his hamstring injury but isn’t at 100 percent yet. Stephen Eustáquio will captain the side in his place, and Marsch says Davies should be ready by the second or third group game, but not today.

By the way, Davies isn’t just a soccer player for Canada. He’s the guy who scored Canada’s first-ever World Cup goal back in 2022. He’s Canada’s best player. And on the biggest day in Canadian soccer history. The day they finally get to host a men’s World Cup match on home soil, he’s going to be watching from the sideline.

Canada still has a fighting chance. Jonathan David, Tajon Buchanan, and Richie Laryea are still very good players. But this tournament just got way harder for them.

Either this team finds a way to shake off four decades of World Cup uselessness in front of their own fans, without their best player and without their captain... or “first home World Cup” turns into “still winless, and we didn’t even have Davies” by sundown.

Then there’s the other half of Day 2. USA vs. Paraguay at SoFi Stadium, and oh my god, this one's been building for months.

At a press conference back in March, the word “pressure” came up 16 times, and it wasn’t reporters asking about it. These were the players bringing it up themselves. The team has been framing the weight of hosting as a feature, not a problem. They’re acting cool and confident. But we’ve heard that before from teams that didn’t back it up.

Here’s an interesting stat. The USMNT has let up multiple goals in four straight matches and hasn’t kept a clean sheet since last September. That’s a pattern. Pochettino’s system has the fullbacks pushing high to win the ball in dangerous areas, and it’s produced goals, but it’s also left the defense exposed both times it’s been tested against real competition.

Now pair that with what Paraguay brings. Paraguay leans heavily on defensive structure, high work rate, and physicality rather than attacking dynamism, even with talented pieces like Almiron and Enciso in the squad. And remember, this is a team that stunned Argentina and Brazil on their way to qualifying. They show results against teams that are supposed to beat them.

If the USA comes out trying to press high and leaves gaps behind, against a Paraguay side built to sit, absorb, and pounce on mistakes? Well, say goodbye to all those hopes, Team USA.

History gives us both versions of how this goes for host nations. South Korea in 2002 rode home advantage all the way to the semifinals. South Africa in 2010 became the first host nation ever to be eliminated in the group stage.

Canada and the USA are both looking right down that path, but just from different angles. Canada needs anything. It could be a draw or even a single goal to start rewriting a history of nothing but losses, and now they have to do it without the one player who raises their ceiling more than anyone else. The USA needs to prove that a defense that’s been bleeding goals for nine months won’t get exposed on the biggest stage.

By tonight, we’ll know a lot more about which version of this World Cup the hosts are writing.

Share Sports Square

Day 1 Recap:

Mexico beat South Africa 2-0, and South Korea came back from 0-1 down to beat Czechia 2-1. So Day 1 was wild, just not for the usual reasons.

Mexico took care of business at home, but oh my god, that game had everything except a clean scoreline. Julián Quiñones opened the scoring early off a sloppy South African giveaway, and Raúl Jiménez added his first-ever World Cup goal in the second half, an emotional moment for the 35-year-old. But the real story was the cards. South Africa had two players sent off (Sithole for denying a goal-scoring chance, Zwane for lashing out after a VAR review), and Mexico’s César Montes got a late red too. Three red cards in a World Cup opener, the most in tournament history. Mexico was the better team start to finish, but this one will be remembered for the chaos.

The nightcap in Guadalajara was the actual game of the day. South Korea and Czechia went into halftime scoreless despite Korea dominating the shot count, and then it got fun. Krejčí put Czechia ahead off a set piece, Korea answered almost immediately through Hwang In-beom, who cut inside and chipped a finish into the corner. Then, in the closing stretch, substitute Oh finished off a cross from Hwang to complete the comeback and give Korea a 2-1 win. Hwang walked away with a goal and an assist, joining a short list of Koreans to do that at a World Cup. A wild finish, and honestly, the better watch of the two Day 1 games.

104 games. 48 countries. 39 days. And the most wide-open tournament in recent memory. There is no runaway favorite, and there’s more chaos built into the format than ever before, and at least a dozen teams that could legitimately win the whole thing.

If you’re new to this: welcome. We wrote this for you, too. You don’t need to know anything coming in. Just know that what starts today is the biggest recurring sporting event on the planet, and for the next five weeks, it’s basically living in US sports venues you already know.

If you’ve been watching, you already know. Let’s get into it. All of my predictions and analyses are below.

Format

48 teams. 12 groups. Three host countries.

This is the first World Cup ever played with 48 teams, which is up from 32 in 2022. They’re split into 12 groups of four. The top two in each group advance automatically. Then the eight best third-place finishers also move on, giving you 32 teams in the Round of 32. From there, it’s a straight knockout until someone lifts the trophy on July 19 at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey.

Games are being played across 16 cities. 11 in the US, 3 in Mexico, 2 in Canada. SoFi Stadium. AT&T Stadium. Levi’s. Hard Rock. MetLife. Just to name a few. Yes, these are the NFL buildings.

Everything airs on FOX and FS1. Some games are free on Tubi, including today’s opener (Mexico vs South Africa) and the USA’s first match (USA vs Paraguay).

The Groups & Some Light Analysis

Here are all 12, with some basic analysis on each one:

Group A: Mexico, South Korea, South Africa, Czechia

Mexico is at home, playing in front of their home crowd. The Azteca will be rocking. South Korea has enough talent to steal second. South Africa, making their first appearance since 2010, is a great story.

Group B: Canada, Switzerland, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Qatar

This is most definitely Canada’s best squad ever. Jonathan David up front, Alphonso Davies on the wing, and with the home crowd behind them, they’re surely advancing. Switzerland is quietly one of the most dangerous knockout-stage teams in the world.

Group C: Brazil, Morocco, Scotland, Haiti

The group everyone’s watching. Brazil under Carlo Ancelotti in his first tournament, and they have Vinicius Jr., Raphinha, and elite talent everywhere. Morocco is a legitimate dark horse pick after their 2022 semifinal run. Scotland, making its first World Cup appearance since 1998, and Haiti, making its first World Cup appearance since 1974, are speed bumps.

Group D: USA, Australia, Paraguay, Türkiye

The US group. This is winnable. Paraguay is the biggest threat. Türkiye is unpredictable but beatable. Australia made the last-16 in 2022. This is the group where the USMNT earns its place. However, don’t be surprised if the US doesn’t advance. The U.S. has struggled under Mauricio Pochettino, losing both games of the Concacaf Nations League last year and falling short in spring friendlies against Belgium and Portugal.

Group E: Germany, Ivory Coast, Ecuador, Curaçao

Germany in a weak group is dangerous. They’re not the 2014 juggernaut anymore, but they’re still Germany. Ivory Coast has real quality. Ecuador is solid. Curaçao, the smallest country to ever qualify for the World Cup and in its first World Cup ever, just wants to compete.

Group F: Netherlands, Japan, Sweden/Ukraine, Tunisia

The Netherlands has a deep squad, but they’ve burned us before. Japan is genuinely one of the best-organized teams in the world. Don’t sleep on them. Sweden went winless in its first six qualifiers.

Group G: Belgium, Egypt, Iran, New Zealand

Belgium’s golden generation is aging out, but they’re still the class here. Egypt has Mo Salah. That one game is worth watching. Egypt has lots of experience on its roster from across the Premier League, Ligue 1, and La Liga as they hope to get out of the group stage.

Group H: Spain, Uruguay, Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia

Spain is the favorite to win the whole thing, and this group is basically a bye. Lamine Yamal, at 18 years old, is a must-watch. Uruguay has Luis Suarez and Darwin Nunez and enough fight to steal second. This is Cape Verde's first World Cup. Saudi Arabia made their World Cup debut in the US in 1994, and they’re back again in 2026.

Group I: France, Senegal, Norway, Iraq

The hardest group in the tournament. France are co-favorites. Norway has Erling Haaland, who is an absolute cheat code. Senegal is physically imposing and tactically disciplined. Iraq is the wild card. Something dramatic will happen here.

Group J: Argentina, Algeria, Austria, Jordan

In Messi’s record-tying sixth and most likely final World Cup, Argentina has a very good chance to take this group. This is still a stacked squad defending its title. Algeria could push Austria for second. Both teams will push Argentina. Jordan is another team that is making its first World Cup appearance.

Group K: Portugal, Colombia, DR Congo, Uzbekistan

Portugal has Ronaldo, who is also probably in his last World Cup, plus a young squad that’s arguably better without leaning on him. Colombia has Luis Diaz, James Rodriguez, and genuine title-contender talent. For DR Congo to advance, they’re going to need to have some good solidity at the back. Uzbekistan is developing, but they’re not there quite yet.

Group L: England, Croatia, Ghana, Panama

England vs. Croatia. Again. 2018 semifinal. 2022 group stage. Now, in 2026, in the same group again. England should win it, but it’s going to be tough. Harry Kane needs a tournament moment.

The Real Contenders

Spain (+450 to win) — The favorite, and they earned it. Reigning European champions. Lamine Yamal is 18 years old and already the best player in the world at his position. Their midfield is suffocating. Their group is easy. If they stay healthy, they are winning six of their seven games.

France (+500) — Kylian Mbappe already has 12 World Cup goals in two tournaments. He’s 27. This might be the year he takes over a tournament the way Messi did in 2022. The squad around him is deep. Their group is brutal, but they should survive it.

England (+650) — They’ve never won anything in 60 years. They always find a way to flame out. And yet, this squad is genuinely good. Harry Kane, Jude Bellingham, Bukayo Saka. The coach has tournament experience now. This is either the year they finally do it, or the year they find a new, creative way to lose.

Brazil (+850) — Carlo Ancelotti takes over a team that hasn’t won a World Cup since 2002. Vinicius Jr. is one of the best players on the planet. Raphinha. Rodrygo. The talent is there. The question is whether Ancelotti, elite at the club level, can build unity in the limited time international managers get. Group C is the most interesting early test.

Argentina (+1000) — Don’t let the odds fool you. Defending champions. Most of the 2022 core is still here. Messi at 38 isn’t the same player he was, and at this point, he might not start every game. But Lautaro Martinez is one of the best strikers in the world, and the squad can function without leaning on him every minute. The pressure is off them. That might make them more dangerous.

Portugal (+850) — This is genuinely Ronaldo’s last one. He’s 41. He’s not going to be the player he was, but he’s still Cristiano Ronaldo at a World Cup. The team around him, Bernardo Silva, Bruno Fernandes, and Diogo Dalot, is arguably their best generation since 2016. Group K is hard but winnable.

Share Sports Square

The Dark Horses

Norway (+3300) — Erling Haaland. Full stop. He’s never played a World Cup game before. He’s coming off back-to-back Premier League seasons at an insane level. Norway has Martin Odegaard, Alexander Sorloth, and a team built around giving Haaland chances. They’re in Group I with France and Senegal, which means they’ll be tested early. If they survive that group, nobody wants to play them.

Morocco (+2500) — They made the semifinals in 2022 as a 200-1 longshot. They know how to do this. Five clean sheets in the 2025 AFCON. Achraf Hakimi is the superstar. A defensive structure that makes you work for everything. They’re in Group C with Brazil. If they finish second there, they’re a genuine quarterfinal threat.

Colombia (+1600) — James Rodriguez. Luis Diaz. Falcao’s gone, but the next generation is here. They have the attacking talent to beat anyone on a given day, and they qualified comfortably. If they get through their group, they are dangerous.

Japan (+2700) — Tactically, the most disciplined team in the tournament that isn’t a traditional European power. They’ve beaten Germany and Spain in the same group at the last World Cup. They’ll do something wild again. Guarantee it.

Leave a comment

Predictions:

Who goes out in the group stage that shouldn’t: Belgium. Too much ego, not enough unity anymore. Mo Salah’s Egypt steals their spot.

Biggest upset of the tournament: Norway beats France in Group I. Haaland scores twice. The internet loses its mind.

Dark horse semifinalist: Morocco. They’ve done it before, and their setup is built for tournaments.

Golden Boot: Kylian Mbappe. He has 12 World Cup goals already, and France potentially plays seven games. The math works.

Final Four: Spain, France, Norway, Argentina.

Final: Norway vs. France. The cheat code vs. the machine.

Champion: Norway. Yeah, we said it. Haaland, at 25, in his first-ever World Cup, has something to prove. They went 8-for-8 in qualifying and beat Italy home and away. Odegaard just won the Premier League. Nobody wants to play them in a knockout game. The group is brutal, but if they get through it, and I think they do, every team left in this bracket has a reason to be scared. Someone always comes out of nowhere. This year it’s Norway.

The “Watch These Games” Calendar

You don’t have to watch everything. Here are a couple of group stage games worth clearing your schedule for:

June 11 — TODAY: Mexico vs. South Africa, 3 PM ET (FOX/Tubi — free)

The tournament opener. Estadio Azteca. 87,000 fans. Mexico is on home soil for the first time since 1986. South Africa is making their first appearance since 2010, when it hosted it. The atmosphere alone is worth tuning in for.

June 12: USA vs. Paraguay, 9 PM ET (FOX/Tubi — free)

Home opener at SoFi Stadium. Paraguay beat Uruguay and Mexico last year and only narrowly lost to Morocco in March. The US cannot sleep on this one, and neither can you. Free to watch. No excuses.

June 13: Brazil vs. Morocco, 6 PM ET (FS1)

Tournament favorite vs. the team that made the semis in 2022 as a 200-1 longshot. MetLife Stadium in New Jersey. Brazil hasn’t made a semifinal in two decades. Morocco has. Something has to give.

June 14: Germany vs. Curaçao, 1 PM ET (FOX)

The smallest nation ever in a World Cup. Playing Germany.

June 14: Netherlands vs. Japan, 4 PM ET (FOX)

Group F might be the hardest to call in the whole bracket. These two meet in the first weekend, and it could effectively decide who tops the group. AT&T Stadium in Dallas. Both teams are capable of beating anyone.

June 17: England vs. Croatia, 4 PM ET (FOX)

England hasn’t recovered from 2018 when Croatia knocked them out of the semis. Now they’re in the same group again. AT&T Stadium. Croatia is older but still dangerous. England fans have been waiting eight years for this one.

June 24: Canada vs. Switzerland, 3 PM ET

Both teams should be 2-0 by this point. Both meet in Vancouver, Canada’s home crowd. Switzerland is the heavy favorite in Group B, but Canada at home in a winner-take-all situation is not a team you want to face. It could be the upset of the group stage.

June 25: Germany vs. Ecuador, 4 PM ET

Final group stage game for Group E. Both teams are expected to be alive at this point, and it’ll effectively be a knockout match. MetLife Stadium. Ecuador has emerged as a genuine dark horse. Germany needs to prove they’re back.

June 26: Norway vs. France, 3 PM ET (FOX)

Mbappe vs. Haaland. Les Bleus vs. the Vikings. World Cup favorites vs. the most dangerous dark horse in the tournament. Gillette Stadium in Boston. This is the game of the group stage. It’s probably for the top spot. We already told you who we think wins.

June 26: Spain vs. Uruguay, 8 PM ET

Spain should be 2-0 and cruise. Uruguay should be 2-0 and cruise. Neither team will have been tested. Now they play each other in Guadalajara. Uruguay has nothing to lose, and that makes it extremely dangerous.

June 27: Colombia vs. Portugal, 7:30 PM ET

Ronaldo’s last World Cup. James Rodriguez on the other side. Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. Both teams will likely be through already, but neither will want to lose top spot heading into the knockouts. Watch for the individual brilliance on both sides.

Give a gift subscription

One Last Thing Before We Kick Off.

I’ll be away from Sports Square from June 15 through June 29. No original coverage from me during that stretch, but that doesn’t mean you’ll be left hanging. Every day, I’ll be reading and crossposting the best World Cup content I come across so your feed stays full of great stuff to read while the tournament is in full swing.

The moment I’m back on June 30, we are going full send. We’re talking 2x-3x the usual output. We’ll be doing game breakdowns, hot takes, bracket reactions, all of it. Everything you’d expect from this newsletter and then some.

For all of our readers expecting normal US sports programming, don’t worry! Throughout the World Cup, I will still be sending out many hockey, basketball, and baseball pieces.

Since this post is now live, a dedicated section for the FIFA World Cup is now available on the website at sportssquarenews.com. For those interested in a specific country, a country directory will also be on that page (hopefully completed by 11:59 PM ET on Thursday). You will be able to click the intended country and see all articles linked to it.

Until then, I’ve got you covered through Saturday. Enjoy the World Cup. It’s going to be a wild one.

But that’s exactly what happened on the South Side of Chicago. Chris Getz was the White Sox general manager1 when they set the modern era record for losses in 2024. He watched every single one. He owned it. And then he went to work.

Here’s the thing people get wrong about Getz. Yes, he was inside the organization when it fell apart. He was Rick Hahn’s assistant GM. But his specific job was running player development. What’s that, you ask? Well, that’s the minor league system, the pipeline, the part of the organization that was actually working.

When Kenny Williams (Executive Vice President) and Rick Hahn (General Manager) got fired, Getz was the one person in that building worth keeping. And the first thing he did when he got the job was make sure he didn’t stay alone in that building for long.

Within three weeks of being named GM, he went outside the organization and hired Josh Barfield, Brian Bannister, and Gene Watson. None of these guys had any connection to the regime that ran the franchise into the ground. Getz rebuilt the room around himself before he ever touched the roster.

Then he started trading.

In March 2024, he shipped Dylan Cease to San Diego. If you don’t follow baseball that closely, here’s why that matters. Cease was the team’s ace. One of the better strikeout pitchers in the sport. The kind of guy most rebuilding teams hold onto as a symbol of hope. Getz traded him for four prospects. Cease eventually signed a seven-year, $210 million deal with Toronto. Some people will tell you that Getz undersold him. Yeah. He did. But Cease was never re-signing in Chicago, and Getz knew it. You sell before the market figures that out.

The Garrett Crochet trade defined his tenure2, though. December 2024. Crochet was a 25-year-old All-Star who struck out over 200 batters in his first full season as a starter. Exactly the kind of pitcher you build a franchise around. Getz traded him to Boston anyway. The return was four players: catcher Kyle Teel, infielder Chase Meidroth, outfielder Braden Montgomery, and pitcher Wikelman Gonzalez. Four for one, and at Crochet’s peak value. Getz cashed in and built a core.

Here’s what makes it even more impressive. Those four players aren’t just sitting in the minors anymore. They’re already producing. Teel is a 23-year-old catcher with a rare feel for hitting. Last season, he hit .404 with runners in scoring position, which was the highest average in the majors among players with at least 50 plate appearances in that situation. Meidroth plays second base and is one of the better young contact hitters in the game. Braden Montgomery was called up and hit a walk-off HR in his debut game. Wikelman Gonzalez has had his ups and downs, but he’s also made it to the majors.

Share Sports Square

And, it’s not just the Crochet trade. Colson Montgomery, a 23-year-old shortstop the White Sox developed themselves, has 11 home runs and 29 RBIs this season. Last year, Teel, Meidroth, and Colson Montgomery combined with catcher Edgar Quero for 342 MLB hits as rookies, which is the most by a White Sox rookie foursome since 1914.

And then there’s Munetaka Murakami. If you don’t know him, here’s what you need to know. He’s a 26-year-old Japanese superstar who crushed 56 home runs in Japan in 2022, breaking the legendary Sadaharu Oh’s single-season record for a Japanese-born player. Think of him as Japan’s version of Shohei Ohtani, minus the pitching. Most big-market teams passed on him because of strikeout concerns. Getz signed him for $34 million on a two-year deal. Before getting injured, Murakami was tied for the AL lead in home runs and leading the league in runs scored.

The pipeline still isn’t empty either. Top prospect Caleb Bonemer is hitting .269/.381/.654 in High-A at just 20 years old. They didn’t mortgage their future to win now either, because guess what? They’re winning now, and they've got a lot more coming.

Alex Anthopoulos in Atlanta is widely considered the best GM3 in baseball. He’s had eight years, a massive market, a healthy budget, and one of the best farm systems handed to him when he arrived. He’s done incredible work. Nobody is disputing that. But Anthopoulos inherited a good situation and made it great. Getz inherited the worst situation in modern baseball history and turned it into a Wild Card race in less than three years. And this was on a budget that would make most teams laugh, by identifying value nobody else saw, and by making trades most GMs were too scared to make. That’s doing your job better than almost everyone else in baseball right now.

On August 1st last year, the White Sox matched their entire 2024 win total in just their 110th game of the season. Today, they're 35-31, in second place in the AL Central, in the Wild Card race. Less than two years removed from 121 losses.

Getz was there for the worst of it. He’s the reason for the best of it. That’s not a coincidence.

That’s a top 5 GM doing his job.

This is a rematch of the 1999 Finals (which was Tim "you have no idea how good he was" Duncan's first ring). In 2026, this matchup leaves nothing to be desired. Stars? Beyond impactful role players? Genius coaches? Legacies on the line? Two starved teams who "play the game the right way," according to NBA Twitter? Yeah. You're about to get all of that and a whole lot more.

The Spurs have gotten here by taking down what was believed to be the NBA's next great dynasty, keeping parity alive in the West. However, unlike what most want you to believe, this could be a long and hard-fought series. Don't sleep on the Knicks, who have gone on a generational run and are obliterating teams. You might have forgotten because of the unmissable Western Conference Finals, but they're currently riding an 11-game playoff win streak!

But how were these teams built? The truth is not as simple as you think. Both of these teams are ideological enemies.

The San Antonio Spurs' luck is one of the reasons they are here. I mean, how do you get the 1st overall pick in 2023, the 4th overall pick in 2024, and the 2nd overall pick in 2025? Oh, and guess who the players were? Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, and Dylan Harper (more on him in a bit).

Those are three x-factors this team has gotten in the past three years. Their strategy was simple: break the team down, deal with some terrible years, and hope for the best. With both OKC and San Antonio, that worked out.

However, some teams don't get lucky like that, like the Knicks. Since 2017, their first-round picks have either been outright bad or haven't contributed to winning for the organization. Frank Ntilikina, Kevin Knox, Obi Toppin, and RJ Barrett aren't all terrible, but they haven't gotten them anywhere.

So, what's actually helped them? Smart trades and free agency pickups: taking the risk on Brunson in free agency, being willing to sacrifice for Bridges and KAT, getting rid of Barrett's contract for OG, and trading for Josh Hart. These are the result of a great front office working its magic. They are designed to win now.

You’ve probably heard about the changes to the draft by now. If you haven’t, here’s what you need to know.

The NBA approved a new “3-2-1” lottery system starting in 2027 that gives more non-playoff and play-in teams chances at the top pick, flattens the odds, and limits how often the same team can land at the very top, all meant to kill off tanking incentives.

With the changes to the draft, the NBA wants teams to take the Knicks' approach.

Let's think about what the Wizards did this past offseason. They were terrible and weren't getting rewarded for it in the draft. Their mentality was very simple: what do we have to lose? So what do they do? Take swings on aging and unwanted stars Trae Young and AD, and would you look at that. They suddenly have the #1 pick and AJ Dybansta in the palm of their hands.

What this means is… we're not going to see another Spurs team like this one ever again.

That's just not how the league wants teams to reach the top anymore. And so, this makes the current Finals matchup even more impactful beyond Wemby's potential GOAT case or Brunson being the biggest New York sports player of all time. In its simplest form, this is draft luck vs. front office brilliance. What's dying out versus what's blossoming.

Now let's talk about the most human story in this whole series. His name is Dylan Harper.

Dylan grew up 25 minutes from Madison Square Garden. He went to Knicks games as a kid. He knows what that building sounds like. And in about 13 hours, he’s walking in there as the enemy.

Everyone’s locked in on the Alien vs the Magician, the 53-year drought, the 1999 rematch. But the most human (get it?) story of these Finals is a 20-year-old from Franklin Lakes, New Jersey, who has to go home and beat the team his neighbors have been waiting their whole lives to see win. He said it himself after the Western Conference Finals: “I’ve been to so many Knicks playoff games. I live 25 to 30 minutes from the arena.”

And, yes, he’s performing, averaging about 13.1 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 2.6 assists across 18 playoff games. With Fox out in Game 1 of the West Finals, he stepped up for 24 points, 11 rebounds, seven steals, and six assists against the defending champions. By the way, he’s a rookie.

This Finals is being framed as Wemby’s welcome to the league or New York’s long-overdue moment. Sure, it could be both. But somewhere in the middle of all that, a kid from Jersey is about to play the biggest games of his life in the building where he used to sit in the stands and cheer. Except he won’t be cheering. He’ll be trying to break their hearts.

Share Sports Square

Guess who the #1 seed is this year?

The Carolina Hurricanes.

Alright, alright. What about the 4 seed? They’ve probably had a couple of wins, right?

Three. The New Jersey Devils in 2000, Pittsburgh in 2009, and Chicago in 2015. Three wins total in over 30 years.

Guess who the #4 seed is this year?

The Las Vegas Golden Knights.

It doesn’t matter what way you look at it. Everything points to the Las Vegas Golden Knights losing.

You’re probably expecting a “well here’s why they aren’t” right? Nope. That’s not happening. Let’s take this exact narrative and answer the real question.

What actually happens when Vegas loses?

The Golden Knights aren’t exactly at the end of their championship window. But this is going to be one of the last times we see the most favorable version of it. And the reasons are all in the numbers.

The cap math is ugly, even by Vegas standards.

Vegas heads into the offseason with $4.625 million in projected cap space. That’s it. On a roster that still needs to re-sign Pavel Dorofeyev, Rasmus Andersson, and Adin Hill. Dorofeyev broke out this postseason. Andersson cost real assets and plays real minutes. Hill is a goalie who can now walk into negotiations with a Stanley Cup Final on his resume, and he’s likely to command at least $6 million a year. Three huge contracts.

And that’s before you account for Jack Eichel’s $13.5 million cap hit kicking in next season on his new 8-year extension, making him the third-highest paid player in the league. You live with that number because elite centers are how you win in this league.

Once that number is locked in, the only place left to cut is the depth. The players who weren’t supposed to be this good. The ones who made this team what it is.

This exact team won’t exist again.

The forwards already locked in for next year are Stone, Hertl, Karlsson, Barbashev, Roy, Howden, and Kolesar. On defense: Pietrangelo, Hanifin, Theodore, McNabb, Whitecloud. Core is fine. It’s everything underneath it that changes.

The biggest example: Pavel Dorofeyev.

He made $1.835 million this season, led the entire NHL in playoff goals, and his own teammates can’t stop talking about him.

He’s expected to seek around $8 million annually on a long-term deal. That’s a $6 million raise for a guy who just became the most dangerous playoff scorer in the league on a near-rookie contract.

That’s the real cost of a deep run. You prove players are worth more than you’re paying them, and then, well, you have to pay them. Vegas doesn’t have the cap space to do that painlessly. That deal alone eats most of what they have left.

If Vegas loses, McCrimmon has to start cutting depth to afford the core and start trusting rookies in spots that used to be stable.

Why Carolina can afford to miss and Vegas can’t.

Jackson Blake is signed under $5.2 million a year. Logan Stankoven is locked up for 8 seasons at below market value. Carolina has over $8 million in cap space. Their best players are young, cheap, and under control. If they lose this Final, the question isn’t “is the window closing?” It’s “how many more times can they get back here?” Probably a few.

For Vegas, this Final is the most balanced, cap-friendly, perfectly timed version of their roster they’re likely to ice for a while. You don’t get many seasons where your stars are healthy, your value contracts are all hitting, and your role guys are all playing above their ticket.

That’s this year’s Golden Knights.

Win the Cup now, or watch this roster get picked apart piece by piece this summer. There’s no third option.

Share Sports Square

Predictions:

Gimme the Canes’ in 6.

But before we get into Mendoza going first overall, before the Jets make the pick everyone’s been debating for two months, there’s a story you need to know about. One that started in Green Bay last year and is coming to Pittsburgh this week.

His name is Ike Winter. Remember it.

Ike is a Milwaukee-based artist who spent 700 hours building all 32 NFL team logos entirely out of reclaimed wood. And I mean that literally. No paint. No stain. Every piece of wood came from furniture he pulled out of alleys and off the side of the road. Fifty-plus pieces of discarded furniture. Every logo is 3x3 feet. Natural tones only.

Oh, and he did it all with a couple of saws in his garage. Out of pure curiosity. For fun.

The NFL commissioned him. His work lines the path that every draft pick walks after hearing their name called. The moment you see your future, you’re walking past Ike’s art.

And then Travis Hunter happened.

Last year in Green Bay, Hunter, the second overall pick, walked past the artwork and just slapped it. Not a tap. A real slap. Five minutes later, the CMO of the NFL pulled Ike aside and told him every player in the green room was talking about slapping their team’s logo. Something like this had never happened before. A spontaneous, unscripted moment that turned into an instant tradition.

Nobody planned that. Nobody could have. It just happened because the art was that good and the energy in that room was that real.

Now it comes to Pittsburgh, where the theme is “Built by Community.” In all honesty, you cannot write a more perfect tagline for Ike’s story if you tried.

When the NFL first knocked on Ike’s door, they had no idea he had skin in the game beyond the craft. Ike Winter is the grandson of Ray Cuffell, who was drafted by the Buffalo Bills in 1944. Football is literally in his bloodline, and the league had no idea.

His grandfather never got a moment like this. Ike’s getting it for both of them.

Wisconsin’s trash. Pittsburgh’s treasure.

Now, the picks.

Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders at No. 1 is locked. Reports have him already working to acclimate to Vegas’ offense, and Klint Kubiak built his whole pitch around this kid. Indiana’s QB1 is the face of this class, and that pick is not moving.

No. 2 is where it gets spicy. The Jets have been going back and forth on this for months. Everything out of the Jets’ building this week points to Arvell Reese, the Ohio State edge rusher. But Peter Schrager went on the record saying David Bailey. Bailey wins with elite burst and bend and is the most “ready right now” pass rusher in this class. Reese has the higher ceiling but is more of a project. With Aaron Glenn as head coach wanting an impact defender immediately, I lean toward Bailey. We’ll see. This is genuinely the most fun market on Kalshi right now if you want to put something behind that take. New users get a free $10.

No. 3 is a potential trade domino. If the Jets take Reese, a team like the Chiefs at No. 9 could trade up to Arizona for Bailey. If both edge rushers are gone, the Cardinals likely pivot to Jeremiyah Love out of Notre Dame, the most electric running back prospect in years. The Cardinals are the wildcards of round one. Watch them.

The Steelers have 12 picks in this draft, the most of any team. They need a quarterback. This city needs a quarterback. Whether that’s Ty Simpson, Garrett Nussmeier, or Carson Beck sliding to them in round two, that’s the subplot nobody’s talking about enough heading into day one.

Tomorrow night, Ike’s wood goes up on those walls in Pittsburgh. Some kid who’s dreamed about this moment his whole life is going to hear his name called, walk down that path, and slap a logo made from furniture someone threw in an alley.

That’s the NFL Draft. That’s why we watch.

Let’s go.

That’s what the sportsbooks gave Pittsburgh to make the playoffs before this season started. Their over/under point total was 75.5. The consensus was loud and unanimous: this was a lost season, a transition year, a team that should be shipping out veterans and stockpiling picks. Multiple outlets called the trade deadline the most important day of their season before a puck was even dropped.

Last night, the Pittsburgh Penguins clinched a playoff spot.

And every front office that spent the last three years pointing at Pittsburgh as the cautionary tale for why you don’t run it back with aging stars just got embarrassed in real time.

Let’s be specific about how wrong everyone was.

FanDuel had Pittsburgh’s playoff odds at +550, tied for worst in the Eastern Conference. Analysts predicted they’d be sellers at the deadline. Their own fanbase debated whether finishing last for a top pick was more valuable than competing. The narrative was settled: Crosby is 38, Malkin is 39, the window is closed, let it go.

Instead, Crosby just finished his 21st consecutive point-per-game season. He has 72 points in 66 games. He passed Steve Yzerman for seventh place on the NHL’s all-time points list. Malkin, who everyone assumed was done, posted 59 points in 54 games, his highest per-60 rate at five-on-five since 2019-20. Erik Karlsson at 35 was voted team MVP and carried the Penguins through stretches when both superstars were out injured. An 18-year-old rookie named Ben Kindel went straight from the draft to the NHL and became a legitimate contributor.

Crosby, Malkin, and Letang have now played together for 20 seasons, the longest-tenured trio in North American professional sports. They were supposed to be done. They are going to the playoffs.

The real story isn’t just that Pittsburgh is good.

It’s what they did to get here.

A season that began with expectations of a high pick in the 2026 draft and reports that it would certainly be Malkin’s last with the Penguins has turned into another shot at a fourth Cup. GM Kyle Dubas didn’t blow it up. He didn’t trade Rust or Rakell as everyone predicted. He added depth: Anthony Mantha, Justin Brazeau, a mid-season deal for Egor Chinakhov, and let the veterans be veterans. He hired Dan Muse, a first-time NHL head coach with zero head coaching experience at this level, and Muse outcoached half the league.

Pittsburgh was winning five of six games down the stretch when it mattered most. That’s a team that believed in itself when basically nobody outside the locker room did.

Here’s why this matters beyond Pittsburgh.

Every year, the tank conversation gets louder in hockey. Blow it up. Collect picks. Trust the process. The analytics crowd has largely won this debate in front offices across the league. The moment a star hits 35, the calculators come out, and the verdict is almost always the same: move on.

Pittsburgh refused. And right now they’re proving the model wrong.

That doesn’t mean tanking is always stupid. It isn’t. But it means the league’s smartest people consistently underestimate two things: what elite players can still do in their late 30s, and what a great locker room is actually worth. You cannot spreadsheet culture. You cannot model what Crosby does to an 18-year-old rookie’s development just by being in the same building.

Ben Kindel is a better hockey player today because Sidney Crosby exists. That doesn’t show up in any projection system.

Share Sports Square

The playoffs start soon.

Pittsburgh will face one of Philadelphia, Columbus, or the Islanders in the first round. None of those matchups scares them. After everything this season has thrown at this team, the age concerns, the injury absences, the front-office skeptics, the sportsbook odds, they’re not losing sleep over a wild-card opponent.

Whether they go deep or get bounced early, the damage to the conventional wisdom is already done.

Pittsburgh ran it back. It worked. Every GM watching has to sit with that.

Give a gift subscription